Climate change has been identified as the primary threat to the integrity and functioning of ecosystems in this century, although there is still much uncertainty about its effects and the degree of vulnerability for different ecosystems to this threat. Here we propose a new methodological approach capable of measuring and mapping the resilience of terrestrial ecosystems at large scales based on their climatic niche. To do this, we used high spatial resolution remote sensing data and ecological niche modeling techniques to calculate and spatialize the resilience of three stable states of ecosystems in South America: forest, savanna, and grassland. Also, we evaluated the sensitivity of ecosystems to climate stress, the likelihood of exposure to non-analogous climatic conditions, and their respective adaptive capacities in the face of climate change. Our results indicate that forests, the most productive and biodiverse terrestrial ecosystems on the earth, are more vulnerable to climate change than savannas or grasslands. Forests showed less resistance to climate stress and a higher chance of exposure to non-analogous climatic conditions. If this scenario occurs, the forest ecosystems would have less chance of adaptation compared to savannas or grasslands because of their narrow climate niche. Therefore, we can conclude that a possible consolidation of non-analogous climatic conditions would lead to a loss of resilience in the forest ecosystem, significantly increasing the chance of a critical transition event to another stable state with a lower density of vegetation cover (e.g., savanna or grassland).

Cocoa is a plant with origins in northwestern South America with high relevance in the global economy. Evidence indicates that cocoa is sensitive to a dry climate, under which crop production is reduced. Projections for future climate change scenarios suggest a warmer and drier climate in the Amazon basin. In this paper, we quantify the potential effects in cocoa production due to its edaphoclimatic suitability changes to the Brazilian Amazon biome and account for regional differences in planning occupation territories. We modeled the suitability of cocoa’s geographical distribution using an ensemble of 10 correlative models that were run in the “biomod2” library and projected to two future climate scenarios (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5) by 2050. Combining information on climate and soil suitability and installed infrastructure in the macro-regions of the Brazilian Amazon. We defined a zoning system to indicate how cocoa production may respond to climate change according to the current and future suitability model. Our results suggest that a reduction in precipitation and an increase in temperature may promote a reduction in the suitability of cocoa production in the Brazilian Amazon biome. In addition of the areas suitable for cocoa plantation, we found a 37.05% and 73.15% decrease in the areas suitable for intensification and expansion zones under RCP 4.5 and 8.5, respectively, compared with the current scenario. We conclude that there may be a need to expand land to cocoa production in the future, or else it will be necessary to plant a cocoa variety resistant to new climatic conditions. Besides, we recommend procedures to combat illegal deforestation to prevent the most critical climate change scenarios from occurring.

Climate change is among the principal threats to global terrestrial biodiversity, especially to megadiverse ecosystems such as the Amazon rainforest. In this study, we investigate how it could affect an iconic forest species—Bertholletia excelsa—(the Brazil nut) which has values in multiple dimensions in an Amazonian context. We used an ensemble from various distribution modeling methods designed for four different climate scenarios from CMIP6 by the end of the century. Then, we simulate how spatial dynamics under climate change, including explicitly dispersal events, can affect the persistence, colonization, and potential extinction of Bertholletia excelsa in the future. Our results show that by the end of the century there would be a generalized loss of suitability on the Amazon biome, regardless of the climate scenario evaluated, which could promote a significant loss (up to 94%) of the area available for the species via extinction. Our results also show that, in the future, the species would colonize higher altitudes in search of favorable conditions for its survival. Finally, we detected that areas that had previously become unsuitable because of climate change would have favorable conditions by the end of the century. Such an outcome could be useful in fostering an active restoration agenda that can mitigate the negative effects of climate change on species in this study.

Pilocarpus microphyllus Stapf. ex Wardlew. (Rutaceae) is an endemic and threatened medicinal plant species from tropical Brazil. Popularly known as “jaborandi”, it is the unique natural source of pilocarpine, an alkaloid used to medical treat glaucoma and xerostomia. Based on Species Distribution Models (SDMs), we modeled the suitability of P. microphyllus’s geographical distribution considering three Global Circulation Models (GCMs) under two future climate change scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5). The quantitative analyses carried out using ten different SDM algorithms revealed that precipitation seasonality (Bio15) and precipitation of the driest month (Bio14) were the most important bioclimatic variables. The results evidenced four main key areas of continuous occurrence of the plant spreading diagonally over tropical Brazilian biomes (Amazon, Cerrado and Caatinga). The near-future (2020 to 2040) ensemble projections considering all GCMs and scenarios have indicated negative impacts for the potential loss or significant reduction in suitable habitats for P. microphyllus in the transition region between the Amazon and Cerrado into central and northern Maranhão state, and mainly in the Caatinga biome over the northern Piaui state. On the other hand, positive impacts of the expansion of the plant habitat suitability are projected over forest cover protected areas of the Amazon biome in the southeastern Pará state. Since the jaborandi is of socioeconomic importance for many families in the north/northeast Brazil, it is urgent to implement public policies for conservation and sustainable management, thus mitigating the impacts of global climate change.