China has a high frequency of natural disasters and it has become the economy with the largest carbon emissions in recent years. In this study, we mainly investigated the relationships between carbon emissions and natural disaster losses in China, as well as considering important factors such as economic growth and new energy consumption. Time series data for China from 2000 to 2020 were selected and based on the nonlinear auto-regressive distributed lag model method, a short-term error correction model and long-term co-integration relationship model were obtained between carbon emissions and their related factors. The results showed that in the long run, there is a significant nonlinear relationship between carbon emissions, new energy consumption and direct economic losses from natural disasters. There is a significant U-shaped relationship between natural disasters and carbon emissions, that is, natural disaster losses will significantly inhibit carbon emissions before they are below a certain threshold, but fewer natural disaster losses will increase carbon emissions. On the contrary, there is an inverted U-shaped relationship between new energy consumption and carbon emissions. When new energy consumption exceeds a certain threshold, it will help carbon peak early. In the short term, the impact of natural disasters on carbon emissions in the current period is significantly positive and higher than that in the lagged period, but the impact of its square term is negative. The short-term error correction model coefficient is −0.6467, and the error will be corrected when the short-term volatility deviates from the long-term equilibrium. These results suggest that attention should be paid to reducing disaster losses and the low-carbon reconstruction path for natural disasters, as well as continuously improving the level of new energy utilization, accelerating the pace of energy substitution, and promoting economic transformation for achieving “carbon peaking” in China.

Coal mining is a major source of energy-related methane emissions; coal mine methane (CMM) governance is therefore relevant to climate mitigation and environmental sustainability. However, systematic evidence remains limited on how policy attention has evolved across China’s CMM policy system and how key design elements are configured within individual policies. This study examines the thematic evolution and policy design consistency of China’s CMM policies from 1988 to 2025. Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) was applied to 163 policy texts, and the Policy Modeling Consistency (PMC) Index was used to assess 12 selected policies. Four themes were identified: CMM extraction and utilization, coalbed methane resource planning and regulation, methane utilization and low-carbon transition, and coal mine gas safety management. Coal mine gas safety management remained recurrent, while methane utilization and low-carbon transition became more prominent in later years. The PMC assessment indicated acceptable-to-excellent overall consistency but uneven dimensional coverage; Policy Timeliness, Policy Instruments, and Policy Object had the lowest mean scores. These findings indicate that policy timeliness, instrument configuration, and target-actor specification warrant particular attention in future CMM policy design.

Safety perception is the psychological need that people desire stability and security. Enhancing the public's sense of security is an effective way to improve the overall level of national happiness, and is also an important guarantee for achieving social stability. Based on the fear of crime model and social psychology theory, this paper constructs an evaluation model of influencing factors of female public safety perception, obtains 821 valid sample data of female residents through questionnaire survey, and establishes a multiple linear regression model of influencing factors of female residents public safety perception. The results show that age, income level and women's public safety perception have positive changes. The level of education has a negative effect on women's public safety perception. Occupational type is related to women's public safety perception, but marital status is not. Media reports on negative news are negatively correlated with women's public security. The public security situation, the order of the residential area and the quality of police work are positively correlated with women's public safety perception. Based on this, this paper proposes to enhance the public safety perception of female residents from three aspects: adopting differentiated security promotion strategies, standardizing the communication order of network media, and innovating new modes of police-citizen cooperation.