Floods are among the most frequent and deadliest natural disasters, and the magnitude and frequency of floods is expected to increase. Therefore, the effects of different flood risk management options need to be evaluated. In this study, afforestation, permeable concrete implementation, and the use of dry and wet retention reservoirs were tested as possible options for urban flood risk reduction in a case study involving the Glinščica river catchment (Slovenia). Additionally, the effect of dry and wet reservoirs was investigated at a larger (catchment) scale. Results showed that in the case of afforestation and permeable concrete, large areas are required to achieve notable peak discharge reduction (from a catchment scale point of view). The costs related to the implementation of such measures could be relatively high, and may become even higher than the potential benefits related to the multifunctionality and multi-purpose opportunities of such measures. On the other hand, dry and wet retention reservoirs could provide more significant peak discharge reductions; if appropriate locations are available, such reservoirs could be implemented at acceptable costs for decision makers. However, the results of this study show that reservoir effects quickly reduce with scale. This means that while these measures can have significant local effects, they may have only a minor impact at larger scales. We found that this was also the case for the afforestation and permeable concrete.
It is not clear how projected climate change will impact the hydrological functioning of complex catchments that have significant karst characteristics. Therefore, in this paper we focused on the investigation of the low- and high-flow characteristics of the karst Ljubljanica River catchment. One smaller (51 km2) and one larger (1135 km2) catchment were selected in order to investigate the projected climate change impact on the hydrological conditions. For the investigation of the hydrological situation in the future, we used a lumped conceptual hydrological model. The model was calibrated using past measured daily data. Using the calibrated model, we investigated the impact of five different climate models outputs for the moderately optimistic scenario (RCP4.5). We investigated the situation in next 30-years periods: 2011–2040, 2041–2070, and 2071–2100. Several low and high-flow indices were calculated and compared. The results indicate that a summer precipitation decrease (i.e., 2011–2070) could lead to lower low-flow values for the investigated areas, which could increase the vulnerability of karst areas. Thus, additional focus should be given to water resource management in karst areas. On the other hand, mean flow could increase in the future. The same also applies for the high-flows where flood frequency analysis results indicate that a climate adaptation factor could be used for the hydrotechnical engineering design. However, differences among investigated models are large and show large variability among investigated cases.
Various models were developed in the past to simulate different hydrological processes. However, discrepancies between simulated and observed values are still significant and pose a challenge to many researchers. Models contain many parameters that cannot be directly measured. The values of most of these parameters are determined in the calibration process conditioning the efficiency of such models. This paper introduces the use of the enhanced Gauss–Levenberg–Marquardt (GLM) procedure in combination with the singular value decomposition (SVD) and Tikhonov regularization to improve the process of hydrological model calibration. The procedure is tested on a freely available hydrological model using a synthetic dataset. Based on several efficiency measures, the GLM procedure, in combination with SVD and Tikhonov regularization, was found to provide efficient model history matching and almost perfect parameter calibration. Moreover, by comparing the results of the proposed procedure with the results of global evolutionary calibration procedures, it was found that the only calibration using the combined GLM procedure gave a perfect fit in low flows. Last but not least, the noise in the calculation results with the combined GLM method was practically the same in either the calibration or validation procedure, suggesting that only computational noise remained in the results.