We evaluated the potential impacts of future land cover change and climate variability on hydrological processes in the Neka River basin, northern Iran. This catchment is the main source of water for the intensively cultivated area of Neka County. Hydrological simulations were conducted using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool. An ensemble of 17 CMIP5 climate models was applied to assess changes in temperature and precipitation under the moderate and high emissions scenarios. To generate the business-as-usual scenario map for year 2050 we used the Land Change Modeler. With a combined change in land cover and climate, discharge is expected to decline in all seasons except the end of autumn and winter, based on the inter-model average and various climate models, which illustrated a high degree of uncertainty in discharge projections. Land cover change had a minor influence on discharge relative to that resulting from climate change.

The main objective of this study is to analyze the spatio-temporal changes in land cover and land use, (1984–2010), as well to simulate future land cover for 2030 in the Neka River Basin, including the Hyrcanian forest, in northern Iran. For this purpose, we used detailed land cover maps for the years 1984, 2001 and 2010. The results showed that the highest deforestation occurred in the boundaries between forest and agriculture areas between 1984 and 2010. Comparing the observed and predicted land cover in 2010 yielded agreement of 96.41%. From 1984 to 2010, landscape metrics showed that the forest area evolved to more fragmentation, with less shape complexity and less connectivity. Projections for the future are consistent with observed changes for the Neka landscape, with a tendency to continue disaggregating and increasing diversity in a number of different patch types. Between 2010 and 2030, we observed the arrival of new crops, rangelands, and urban areas within the remaining areas of homogeneous forest. Changes in the Hyrcanian forest will cause alteration in ecosystem services, such as erosion control, water yield, timber harvest, and ground water reservation. Results of this work may represent a useful tool to provide strategies and territorial planning for sustainable management of the fragile Hyrcanian forest ecosystems in the Neka Basin.