Laura Böhm

Ms. Laura Böhm


Research Focus & Metrics

Academic Career Length

4Years (2023-Present)

(Calculated once Scilit publication data is synced: current year − year of first publication + 1)

Representative Publications

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15 September 2023 in Energies
Verified
Journal Article
Open access
PDF file
LBLaura Böhm
Laura Böhm
SKSebastian Kolb
Sebastian Kolb
TPThomas Plankenbühler
Thomas Plankenbühler
JMJonas Miederer
Jonas Miederer
SMSimon Markthaler
Simon Markthaler
 Juergen Karl, Juergen Karl,
Juergen Karl,
Methods of computational intelligence show a high potential for short-term price forecasting of the energy market as they offer the possibility to cope with the complexity, multi-parameter dependency, and non-linearity of pricing mechanisms. While there is a large number of publications applying neural networks to the prediction of electricity prices, the analysis of natural gas and carbon prices remains scarce. Identifying a best practice from the literature, this study presents an iterative approach to optimize both the input values and network configuration of neural networks. We apply the approach to the natural gas and carbon market, sequentially testing autoregressive and exogenous explanatory variables as well as different neural network architectures. We subsequently discuss the influence of architectural properties, input parameters, data preparation, and the models’ resilience to singular events. Results show that the selection of appropriate lags of gas and carbon prices to account for autoregressive properties of the respective time series leads to a high degree of forecasting accuracy. Additionally, including ambient temperature data can slightly reduce errors of natural gas price forecasting whereas carbon price predictions benefit from electricity prices as a further explanatory input. The best configurations presented in this contribution achieve a root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.64 EUR/MWh (natural gas prices) corresponding to a normalized RMSE of 0.037 and 0.33 EUR/tCO2 (carbon prices) corresponding to a normalized RMSE of 0.023.