Changes in land use in an agro-pastoral region affect the delivery of ecosystem services. The trajectory of future land use change and its impacts on human society are not yet well understood, which poses a challenge to efforts to balance the socioeconomic development with the supply of ecosystem services. Taking the Hunshandake region for a case study, we developed four land use scenarios, and projected the future land use patterns under those scenarios using the GeoSOS-FLUS model. We then assessed the ecosystem service values (ESV) using a modification of the equivalent-coefficient method that accounts for differences in net primary production, and explored the impacts of land use change on ESV from 2018 to 2030. We found important land use conversions among the forest, grassland, and cropland uses, mainly in the southern part of our study area. The presence of ESV change hotspots and cold spots suggested that the changes were clustered in the southeastern part. The ESV gain and loss matrix showed that the land use changes under a scenario that prioritized ecosystem services and the comprehensive development scenario increased ESV from 2018 to 2030 with the conversion of cropland to forest. Our results provide important knowledge to inform land use decisions and facilitate sustainable development in the Hunshandake region.

The pattern of grain self-sufficiency plays a fundamental role in maintaining food security. We analyzed the patterns and determinants of grain production and demand, as well as grain self-sufficiency, in China over a 30-year period. The results show that China’s total grain production, with an obvious northeast–southwest direction, increased by 63%, and yields of rice, wheat, corn, tubers, and beans increased by 16, 49, 224, 6, and 103%, respectively. The trends in ration and feed grain consumption changes at the provincial scale were roughly the same as at the national scale, with the ration consumption ratio decreasing and the ratio of feed grain consumption increasing. The ration consumption in Northwest China was relatively high, while the feed grain consumption rates in Shanghai, Guangdong, Beijing, Tianjin, and Chongqing were higher. Compared with ration and feed grain, the proportions of seed grain and grain loss were relatively small. China’s grain consumption mainly concentrated in the central and eastern regions of China. Total grain, rice, corn, wheat, tubers, and beans consumption in feed grain showed a northeast–southwest trend, with consumption centers all shifting southward in the 30-year period. Corn accounted for the largest proportion in feed grain, followed by beans. Urban feed grain and urban ration hot spot areas have gradually transferred from the northwest to southeast coastal areas. The hot spots of rural feed grain consumption and rural ration consumption remained almost unchanged, located in the south of the Yangtze River and Central and Southern China, respectively. The grain self-sufficiency level developed well in the study period, while the areas with grain deficit were Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, Zhejiang, Fujian, Guangdong, and Hainan. The areas with high supply and high demand were mainly located in Central and East China, the areas with high supply and low demand were mainly distributed in Northeast China, and the areas with low supply and low demand were mainly located in Western China. The pattern of self-sufficiency of corn in feed grain has remained basically unchanged; the areas with corn feed grain deficit were Central and Southeast China, while North China had corn feed grain surplus. Compared with corn feed, the surplus of soybean feed was relatively poor. Factor detector analysis revealed that in different periods, the same impact factor had different explanatory power in the supply and demand pattern, and the comprehensive consideration of any two factors will enhance the explanatory power of grain supply and demand pattern.

Ecosystem service (ES) flows across geophysical and administrative boundaries are ubiquitous and are receiving more attention in an increasingly metacoupled world. Omitting trans-boundary ES flows from ES assessments will lead to unilateral conclusions and underestimation of ES contributions over distances. Inner Mongolia is an important ecological security barrier of China and Eurasia, but the trans-boundary effect of this barrier is difficult to be quantitatively evaluated and is rarely assessed. This study assessed the ecological security barrier function of Inner Mongolia from the perspective of trans-boundary ES flows, including wind prevention and sand fixation (WPSF), water provision (WP), carbon sequestration (CS) and livestock product provision (LPP) service flows. The trans-boundary value flows for the WPSF, WP, CS and LPP services in 2010 were 6.20 × 10¹⁰ CNY (Chinese currency, yuan), 0.21 × 10¹⁰ CNY, 1.29 × 10¹⁰ CNY and 1.27 × 10¹⁰ CNY, respectively, and 5.89 × 10¹⁰ CNY, 0.16 × 10¹⁰ CNY, 0.37 × 10¹⁰ CNY and 1.33 × 10¹⁰ CNY, respectively, in 2015; correspondingly, the percentages of these trans-boundary value flows in terms of the total value flow were 69.12%, 2.34%, 14.38% and 14.16%, respectively, in 2010 and 76.00%, 2.06%, 4.77% and 17.16%, respectively, in 2015. Therefore, WPSF service plays a more important role in the trans-boundary ecological security barrier function of Inner Mongolia. This study can enhance the understanding of trans-boundary telecoupling in an integral socio-ecological system and identify the critical ESs to form a foundation for ecological conservation measures considering sustainable development.