Although nine of 16 federal states in Germany conduct public health surveillance for Lyme borreliosis (LB), the extent of under-ascertainment is unknown. As a model for European countries that conduct LB surveillance, we sought to estimate the population-based incidence of symptomatic LB after adjusting for under-ascertainment. Estimating seroprevalence-derived under-ascertainment relies on data from seroprevalence studies, public health surveillance, and published literature. The number of symptomatic LB cases in states that conduct LB surveillance was estimated from studies reporting the seroprevalence of antibodies against Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato, the proportion of LB cases that are asymptomatic, and the duration of antibody detection. The number of estimated incident symptomatic LB cases was compared with the number of surveillance-reported LB cases to derive under-ascertainment multipliers. The multipliers were applied to the number of 2021 surveillance-reported LB cases to estimate the population-based incidence of symptomatic LB in Germany. Adjusting for seroprevalence-based under-ascertainment multipliers, the estimated number of symptomatic LB cases in states that conducted surveillance was 129,870 (408 per 100,000 population) in 2021. As there were 11,051 surveillance-reported cases in 2021 in these states, these data indicate there were 12 symptomatic LB cases for every surveillance-reported LB case. We demonstrate that symptomatic LB is underdetected in Germany and that this seroprevalence-based approach can be applied elsewhere in Europe where requisite data are available. Nationwide expansion of LB surveillance would further elucidate the true LB disease burden in Germany and could support targeted disease prevention efforts to address the high LB disease burden.

Lyme borreliosis (LB), the most common tick-borne disease in Europe, is endemic to Poland. Despite public health surveillance with mandatory reporting of LB cases by physicians and laboratories, many symptomatic LB cases are not included in surveillance in Poland. We estimated the extent of the under-ascertainment of symptomatic LB cases via surveillance in the Polish province of Lublin to better understand Poland’s LB burden. The number of incident symptomatic LB cases in Lublin in 2010 was estimated from two seroprevalence studies conducted among adults in Lublin, as well as estimates of the proportion of asymptomatic LB cases and the duration of LB antibody persistence. The estimated number of incident symptomatic LB cases was compared to the number of surveillance-reported cases in Lublin to derive an under-ascertainment multiplier. This multiplier was applied to the number of surveillance-reported cases in 2021 to estimate the number and population-based incidence of symptomatic LB cases in Lublin in 2021. We estimate that there are 5.9 symptomatic LB cases for every surveillance-reported LB case in Lublin. Adjusting for under-ascertainment, the estimated number of symptomatic LB cases in Lublin in 2021 was 6204 (population-based incidence: 467.6/100,000). After adjustment for under-ascertainment, the incidence of symptomatic LB in Lublin, Poland, is high.