The Sarez Dam, currently recognized as the world’s highest natural dam, holds immense economic significance, necessitating the reliable monitoring and early detection of potential deformations. This study utilizes the Beidou high-precision deformation monitoring system for the dam. Employing baseline network solutions, precise point positioning, and real-time kinematic positioning, the monitoring data from October 2021 to March 2023 were meticulously processed and comparatively analyzed. The results reveal varied degrees of displacement deformation at all sites, with horizontal deformation towards the lake center and vertical deformation showing subsidence. The three-dimensional vector average displacement is 29.1 mm, with an average monthly rate of 4.3 mm/month, and the maximum deformation is 41.4 mm. The cause of the horizontal deformation towards the lake center may be a slow collapse of the coastal soil and rock towards the lake center. Additionally, the monitoring detected a 7.2-magnitude earthquake on 23 February 2023, 52 km from the dam, causing an average displacement of 22.5 mm towards the south, which is 20 times the monthly deformation rate. In summary, deformation is present within the dam monitoring area, with a relatively stable deformation rate, warranting continued tracking and monitoring. Furthermore, earthquakes significantly impact dam deformation, necessitating heightened attention to the potential for seismic-induced dam damage in the future.

In arid regions, water scarcity necessitates reliance on surface runoff as a vital water source. Studying the impact of climate change on surface runoff can provide a scientific basis for optimizing water use and ensuring water security. This study investigated runoff patterns in the upper-middle Amu Darya River (UADR) from 1960 to 2015. Special emphasis was placed on the effects of climatic factors and the role of major atmospheric circulation indices, such as the Eurasian Zonal Circulation Index (EZI), Niño 3.4, and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). The results show a significant linear decreasing annual trend in runoff at a rate of 2.5 × 10⁸ m³/year, with an abrupt change in 1972. Runoff exhibited periodic characteristics at 8–16 and 32–64 months. At the 8–16-month scale, runoff was primarily influenced by precipitation (PRE), actual evapotranspiration (AET), and snow water equivalent (SWE), and, at the 32–64-month scale, Niño 3.4 guided changes in runoff. In addition, El Niño 3.4 interacted with the EZI and IOD, which, together, influence runoff at the UADR. This study highlights the importance of considering multiple factors and their interactions when predicting runoff variations and developing water resource management strategies in the UADR Basin. The analysis of nonlinear runoff dynamics in conjunction with multiscale climate factors provides a theoretical basis for the management of water, land, and ecosystems in the Amu Darya Basin.

Sarez Lake, situated at one of the highest altitudes among naturally dammed lakes, is regarded as potentially hazardous due to its geological setting. Therefore, developing an integrated monitoring and risk assessment framework for slope-related geological hazards in this region holds significant scientific and practical value. In this study, we processed 220 Sentinel-1A SAR images acquired between 12 March 2017 and 2 August 2024, using the Small Baseline Subset Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (SBAS-InSAR) technique to extract time-series deformation data with millimeter-level precision. These deformation measurements were combined with key environmental factors to construct a susceptibility evaluation model based on the Information Value and Support Vector Machine (IV-SVM) methods. The results revealed a distinct spatial deformation pattern, characterized by greater activity in the western region than in the east. The maximum deformation rate along the shoreline increased from 280 mm/yr to 480 mm/yr, with a marked acceleration observed between 2022 and 2023. Geohazard susceptibility in the Sarez Lake area exhibits a stepped gradient: the proportion of area classified as extremely high susceptibility is 15.26%, decreasing to 29.05% for extremely low susceptibility; meanwhile, the density of recorded hazard sites declines from 0.1798 to 0.0050 events per km². The spatial configuration is characterized by high susceptibility on both flanks, a central low, and convergence of hazardous zones at the front and distal ends with a central expansion. These findings suggest that mitigation efforts should prioritize the detailed monitoring and remediation of steep lakeside slopes and fault-associated fracture zones. This study provides a robust scientific and technical foundation for the emergency warning and disaster management of high-altitude barrier lakes, which is applicable even in data-limited contexts.