Hydropower compensating for wind and solar power is an efficient approach to overcoming challenges in the integration of sustainable energy. Our study proposes a multi-objective scheduling model for the complementary operation of wind–photovoltaic–hydro systems. The model aims to maximize the total generation while minimizing the mean square deviation of the system output and grid load. Taking wind and solar bases and key peak-shaving cascade hydropower stations in Hubei Province as a case study, various multi-objective Pareto solution sets were obtained for different scheduling periods. The analysis dissects the relationship between total generation and the stability of residual load after adjustment by the wind–photovoltaic–hydro systems. Furthermore, the study analyzes the role that a complementary system should play in the power grid and discusses the effect of cascade hydropower scheduling methods on the operational characteristics of multi-energy complementary systems.
Electricity price forecasting is of significant practical importance, and improving prediction accuracy has become a key area of focus. Although substantial progress has been made in electricity price forecasting research, the unique characteristics of the electricity market make prices highly sensitive to even minor market changes. This results in prices exhibiting long-term trends while also experiencing sharp fluctuations due to sudden events, often leading to extreme values. Furthermore, most current models are “black-box” models, lacking transparency and interpretability. These unique features make electricity price forecasting particularly complex and challenging. This paper introduces a forecasting framework that incorporates the Seasonal Trend decomposition using Loess (STL), Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU), Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LightGBM), and Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAPs) and applies it to forecasting in the electricity markets of the United States and Australia. The proposed forecasting framework significantly improves prediction accuracy compared to nine other baseline models, especially in terms of RMSE and R2 metrics, while also providing clear insights into the factors influencing the forecasts. On the U.S. dataset, the RMSE of this framework is 12.7% lower than that of the second-best model, while, on the Australian dataset, the RMSE of the SLGSEF is 2.58% lower than that of the second-best model.
31 October 2023 in Journal of Environmental Management
Cascade reservoir operation can ensure the optimal use of water and hydro-energy resources and improve the overall efficiency of hydropower stations. A large number of studies have used meta-heuristic algorithms to optimize reservoir operation, but there are still problems such as the inability to find a global optimal solution and slow convergence speed. Lightning search algorithm (LSA) is a new meta-heuristic algorithm, which has the advantages such as high convergence speed and few parameters to be adjusted. However, there is no study on the application of LSA in reservoir operation. In this paper, LSA is used to solve the problem of reservoir operation optimization to verify its feasibility. We also propose an improved LSA algorithm, the frog-leaping–particle swarm optimization–LSA (FPLSA), which was improved by using multiple strategies, and we address the shortcomings of LSA such as low solution accuracy and the tendency to fall into local optima. After preliminary verification of ten test functions, the effect is significantly enhanced. Using the lower Jinsha River–Three Gorges cascade reservoirs as an example, the calculation is carried out and compared with other algorithms. The results show that the FPLSA performed better than the other algorithms in all of the indices measured which means it has stronger optimization ability. Under the premise of satisfying the constraints of cascade reservoirs, an approximate optimal solution could be found to provide an effective output strategy for cascade reservoir scheduling.
Hydro power has provided significant economic benefits to society due to its cleanliness and convenience. As the number of hydropower stations has increased, many serious ecological issues have also emerged. This study uses Wan’an Reservoir as its research object and investigates single–multi-objective optimal operation and decision-making regarding reservoirs for ecology-oriented operation, to meet ecological water demand and seek the optimal operation schemes for energy generation and ecological benefits. The full-process research is conducted based on the “objective-modeling constraint optimization scheme decision-making” framework. The Mann–Kendall test and ordered clustering method were used to diagnose the hydrological variation in the basin. Based on this, a hierarchical and phased ecological flow process was derived. The objectives were defined according to the flow process, and optimal operation models were constructed. The differential evolution algorithm (DE) and improved non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm-II (NSGA-II) were used to solve the models. A non-fitting curve method was used to determine the approximate inflection point of the Pareto front curve, and the curve was fitted linearly according to the approximate inflection point to obtain the conversion formula between the objectives. Based on the coefficient of variation and Mahalanobis distance, a new multi-attribute decision-making method for reservoir operation, CV-ITOPSIS, was constructed by improving the traditional TOPSIS. The results show that: (1) There is a piecewise linear contradiction between energy generation and ecological objectives, and the contradiction intensifies with an increase in incoming water frequency. (2) Before the approximate inflection point, the head significantly influences the conversion rate from the energy generation to ecology, while the discharge flow is the major influencing factor after the inflection point. The inflection point and the formula for the piecewise straight line can reveal the conversion law between the two objectives. (3) CV-ITOPSIS considers the degree of differentiation of index data and fully considers the correlation between indicators while retaining the good evaluation performance of the traditional method. It recommends the optimal benefit scheme for a multi-objective non-inferior solution set. The research results provide a theoretical foundation and decision support for the optimal ecological operation of the Ganjiang River Basin.
Hydropower is a vital strategic component of China’s clean energy development. Its construction and optimized water resource allocation are crucial for addressing global energy challenges, promoting socio-economic development, and achieving sustainable development. However, the optimization scheduling of cascade hydropower stations is a large-scale, multi-constrained, and nonlinear problem. Traditional optimization methods suffer from low computational efficiency, while conventional intelligent algorithms still face issues like premature convergence and local optima, which severely hinder the full utilization of water resources. This study proposed an improved whale optimization algorithm, the Black-winged Differential-variant Whale Optimization Algorithm (BDWOA), which enhanced population diversity through a Logistic-Sine-Cosine combination chaotic map, improved algorithm flexibility with an adaptive adjustment strategy, and introduced the migration mechanism of the black-winged kite algorithm along with a differential mutation strategy to enhance the global search ability and convergence capacity. The BDWOA algorithm was tested using test functions with randomly generated simulated data, with its performance compared against five related optimization algorithms. Results indicate that the BDWOA achieved the optimal value with the fewest iterations, effectively overcoming the limitations of the original whale optimization algorithm. Further validation using actual runoff data for the cascade hydropower station optimization scheduling model showed that the BDWOA effectively enhanced power generation efficiency. In high-flow years, the average power generation increased by 8.3%, 6.5%, 6.8%, 4.1%, and 8.2% compared to the five algorithms while achieving the shortest computation time. Significant improvements in power generation were also observed in normal-flow and low-flow years. The scheduling solutions generated by the BDWOA can adapt to varying inflow conditions, offering an innovative approach to solving complex hydropower station optimization scheduling problems. This contributes to the sustainable utilization of water resources and supports the long-term development of renewable energy.