Increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations is the main driver of global warming due to fossil fuel combustion. Satellite observations provide continuous global CO2 retrieval products, that reveal the nonuniform distributions of atmospheric CO2 concentrations. However, climate simulation studies are almost based on a globally uniform mean or latitudinally resolved CO2 concentrations assumption. In this study, we reconstructed the historical global monthly distributions of atmospheric CO2 concentrations with 1° resolution from 1850 to 2013 which are based on the historical monthly and latitudinally resolved CO2 concentrations accounting longitudinal features retrieved from fossil-fuel CO2 emissions from Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center. And the spatial distributions of nonuniform CO2 under Shared Socio-economic Pathways and Representative Concentration Pathways scenarios were generated based on the spatial, seasonal and interannual scales of the current CO2 concentrations from 2015 to 2150. Including the heterogenous CO2 distributions could enhance the realism of global climate modeling, to better anticipate the potential socio-economic implications, adaptation practices, and mitigation of climate change.
17 June 2017 in Theoretical and Applied Climatology
Atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) would be increasing much more if it were not for terrestrial carbon (C) uptake, fueling the drawdown of atmospheric CO2 in vegetation and soil on decadal to centennial time scales. Here, we used a global Earth system model (BNU‐ESM) with two different CO2 data sets (i.e., uniform CO2 vs. non‐uniform CO2 data sets) to simulate the responses of the C balance, particularly to the non‐uniform CO2 effect. Under future conditions of 2071–2100, accounting for spatial variations of CO2 concentrations resulted in 0.51 Pg C yr−1 or 19% additional global net ecosystem production (NEP) inductions relative to the uniform conditions. The reduction in NEP in the future was mostly caused by the reduction in the Northern Hemisphere, within which summer was the season that accounted for the largest fraction of this reduction. Changes in NEP under future conditions differed largely to those under present conditions, resulting from changes in the circulation caused by the non‐uniform CO2—for example, reductions in evapotranspiration limit water vapor contributions to the lower atmosphere, and substantially diminish convective precipitation, which led to decreased precipitation. Our findings call for more attention to be paid to the influence of spatial variations in CO2 concentration—particularly in the Northern Hemisphere—to better constrain the projected C uptake under future conditions. Also, it highlights the fundamental importance of non‐uniform CO2 in determining the pattern, response, and magnitude of C uptake through to 2100.
Coal-to-gas/electricity conversion (hereafter referred to as CTGC/CTEC) as the core project of a clean heating campaign has been widely adopted to replace and reduce the combustion of residential coal in Northern China since 2017. In this study, simulations based on the WRF-Chem model were carried out to quantitatively assess the impacts of the CTGC/CTEC project on air quality in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) region. It was found that the CTGC/CTEC projects exert a remarkable effect on improving the air quality in the BTH region, especially in the plain area. The maximum decrease in the concentrations of PM2.5 and PM10 averaged during January can reach 30 and 40 μg/m3, respectively. In addition, the spillover effects due to CTGC/CTEC projects are rather small; that is, the local reduced emissions tend to provide more benefit to the local air quality but less for its surrounding regions. It is also noteworthy that the effects due to meteorological condition changes are comparable with, or even larger, than those due to CTGC/CTEC projects, which are not spatially uniform for the BTH region among various cities. Overall, these results not only demonstrate the effectiveness of CTGC/CTEC projects on air-quality improvement in the BTH region, but also indicate the importance of meteorological conditions in modulating the local air quality. To sustain better air quality in the future, residential coal replacement, all over China, can be further promoted. In addition, continued policy refinement can be essential for the nationwide implementation of clean heating projects.
The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) is one of the key areas with PM2.5 air pollution in China. Driven by the PM2.5 target accessibility of the Interim Target-1 (IT-1) by World Health Organization (WHO) and China's carbon neutrality, this study explored and quantified the contribution of climate change and anthropogenic emission to future PM2.5 in the region. The experiments considered future climate change scenarios RCP8.5, RCP4.5, and RCP2.6 with the baseline (Base) and reduced emission (EIT1) inventories in 2030, and RCP4.5 climate scenario with 3 emission inventories in 2050, the additional strong control emission scenario called Best-Health-Effect (BHE). Under various climate scenarios, the future air quality research modelling system projected annual PM2.5 concentrations nearing 35 μg/m3 in 2030. However, considering only the effect of emission reduction, the annual PM2.5 concentrations under EIT1 emission scenario is about 35% less than under Base scenario in different key years. The future PM2.5 concentrations are highly related to anthropogenic emission from human activities, while climate change by 2030 or 2050 has little impact on future air quality over the BTH region. The BHE emission reduction is significantly required for China to meet the new PM2.5 guideline value of WHO in the future.
Climate change is already significantly affecting the frequency of wildfires in most regions of the world, and the risk of wildfires is expected to amplify further with global warming. Accordingly, there is growing concern about the mechanisms and impacts of extreme fires. In this study, a coupling of the Weather Research and Forecasting model and the Rothermel Fire model (WRF-Fire) is employed to reproduce the spread of fire within the national boundary of inner Mongolia from 21 to 27 May 2009. Simulations were run with or without feedback from fire-to-atmosphere models, and the study focused on how the energy flux of simulated fires changes the local meteorological environment. The coupled simulation could reproduce the burned area well, and the wind speed was the dominant factor in the fire spread, with a maximum value no more than 6.4 m/s, when the terrain height changes little and the proportion of grassland is low. After the feedback, the propagation speed of the fire accelerated, accompanying the release of latent and sensible heat, and local circulation formed near the front of the fire, leading to a convergence and divergence zone in the downwind area. It is worth noting that during a period of more than 140 h of simulation, the area of the fire field increased by 17% from ignition time. Therefore, considering the fire–atmosphere interaction is necessary for accurately predicting fire behavior.