Decoupling agricultural economic growth from agricultural water pollution is of great importance to regional sustainable development. It is necessary to further explore the decoupling state and key driving factors connecting agricultural water pollution and agricultural economic growth on the basis of accurate measurement of agricultural water pollution. Accordingly, taking the Yellow River Basin (YRB) as the research object, this study combined the water footprint theory, the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) model and the Tapio decoupling model (TDM) to conduct an in-depth decoupling analysis of the connection between the agricultural grey water footprint (AGWF) and agricultural economic growth in the YRB. Specifically, this study first calculated the AGWF of the YRB during 2016–2021 and objectively evaluated the water resource utilization in this region based on the AGWF. Then, the LMDI model was used to explore the driving factors of the AGWF in the YRB. Finally, the decoupling states between the AGWF and its driving factors with agricultural GDP (AGDP) were studied using the TDM. The main results are as follows: (1) The overall AGWF in the YRB showed a decreasing trend and a slow increase, decreasing by 5.39% in 2021 compared to 2016. (2) The primary promoting factor and inhibiting factor of AGWF reduction are the efficiency effect and agricultural economic effect, respectively. (3) The decoupling states of the AGWF and AGDP presented strong decoupling (SD) and then weak decoupling (WD) in the YRB during the research period. The decoupling states between the agricultural grey water footprint intensity (AGWFI) and AGDP changed from expansive negative decoupling (END) to SD. The decoupling state of population and AGDP remained SD. This study will contribute to alleviating agricultural water pollution in the YRB and help policymakers in water-stressed countries to formulate agricultural water management policies.

Water environmental carrying capacity (WECC) is an important support for social and economic development and is closely related to regional production and consumption patterns. Exploring the level of WECC and its evolution trend is very urgent for the scientific formulation of targeted early warning control strategies. Therefore, this study first constructs the index system of WECC with a DPSIR model, and conducts the quantitative evaluation by combining the Kantiray Weighting method and the TOPSIS method. Then, the Kernel Density Estimation method and the Markov Chain model are applied to explore the spatiotemporal variation characteristics of WECC and predict its evolution trend. Finally, a case study of 17 municipal administrative regions in Hubei Province is carried out. The main findings are as follows: (1) The WECC status in Hubei Province during 2013–2022 was generally satisfactory and showed a trend of fluctuating improvement. (2) The spatial agglomeration effect of WECC in Hubei Province was significant, showing a distribution pattern of “high-high” agglomeration and “low-low” agglomeration. The improvement of the WECC in eastern Hubei was obvious, while that in central Hubei was slower, and the cities with a lower level of WECC had a more significant improvement effect. (3) Overall, the WECC of cities in Hubei Province tends to shift to a higher level. In a short period of time, the grade improvement of urban WECC in Hubei Province is more likely to occur between adjacent grades. With the increase in time span, the probability of this transition rises gradually. This study has proposed a set of methods for the evaluation and prediction of WECC status, which can provide important decision-making guidance for the early warning and regulation of regional differentiated WECC.

Transboundary river basins face water stress exacerbated by data scarcity and political instability, and most allocation models require ideal conditions that ordinarily do not exist. This study operationalizes Water Diplomacy Theory (WDT) for data-scarce, conflict-prone basins through quantifiable allocation rules—a critical gap as 310 transboundary basins worldwide face similar challenges. We address: (1) How can a four-stage allocation framework reduce basin-wide water stress under varying Institutional Capacity (IC), Data Transparency (DT), and Stakeholder Inclusion (SI)? (2) What treaty provisions achieve bindingness under upstream-downstream power asymmetries? (3) How does this framework advance beyond existing models in equity, efficiency, and adaptive capacity? We synthesize Water Diplomacy Theory with Hydro-political Security Complex Theory to construct a novel four-stage framework: initial allocation with ecological floors, conditional reallocation triggers, interannual water banking, and satellite-verified compliance. Drawing on 14 treaty precedents and 30-year hydrological data for the Salween River, we embed these rules in an open-source water banking model. Results demonstrate that increasing IC from low to high reduces basin-wide water stress by 34% (±7%, 95% IC) under drought conditions. Stakeholder Inclusion decreases allocation conflicts by 52%. Water banking outperforms priority rules by 23% across climate scenarios. Cooperation becomes self-enforcing when IC exceeds 0.55. The novelty and contribution to existing literature our study provides are: (1) first operationalization of hybrid commons-to-treaty transition with 85.7% empirically grounded clauses; (2) evidence that binding cooperative treaty design is achievable in weak-state contexts through institutional design; and (3) a portable template for data-scarce conflict-affected basins.

【目的】水资源可持续性评价是实现区域水资源有效管理和经济高质量发展的重要基础。现有研究大多聚焦于水量、水质角度，在水资源资产化管理背景下引入水价值维度能够使水资源可持续性评价更加客观全面，有助于制定区域差异化的水资源管理策略。【方法】基于“供需-承载-资产”三维视角，本文运用水足迹理论和水资源资产负债表开展中国31个省份2013—2021年期间的水量、水质、水价值可持续性评价，结合ArcGIS软件和莫兰指数探究单维和三维水资源可持续状态的时空分布特征，并使用核密度估计方法进一步分析水资源可持续状态的时空演化特征。【结果】①中国整体水资源可持续性评价结果较好且始终表现为三维可持续状态，31个省份的水量、水质、水价值可持续性评价结果省际差异较大且随时间变化显著；②2013—2021年31个省份的水资源可持续状态呈现提升态势，空间上整体呈现“南好北差”特征，部分维度表现出较明显的空间集聚特征。其中，水量可持续状态主要表现为“高-高”集聚和“低-低”集聚，水质可持续状态主要表现为“低-低”集聚，水价值可持续状态尚未形成明显的集聚特征；③中国水资源可持续性省际差异逐渐缩小，其中水量可持续性省际差异逐渐减小，水质和水价值可持续性省际差异表现出“先增大，后减小”的变化趋势。【结论】中国未来的区域水资源管理政策制定应该在水量、水质的基础上，将水价值维度也纳入考虑，通过针对性施策以更好地保障中国水安全，进而可持续支撑中国经济高质量发展。