Water environmental carrying capacity (WECC) is an important support for social and economic development and is closely related to regional production and consumption patterns. Exploring the level of WECC and its evolution trend is very urgent for the scientific formulation of targeted early warning control strategies. Therefore, this study first constructs the index system of WECC with a DPSIR model, and conducts the quantitative evaluation by combining the Kantiray Weighting method and the TOPSIS method. Then, the Kernel Density Estimation method and the Markov Chain model are applied to explore the spatiotemporal variation characteristics of WECC and predict its evolution trend. Finally, a case study of 17 municipal administrative regions in Hubei Province is carried out. The main findings are as follows: (1) The WECC status in Hubei Province during 2013–2022 was generally satisfactory and showed a trend of fluctuating improvement. (2) The spatial agglomeration effect of WECC in Hubei Province was significant, showing a distribution pattern of “high-high” agglomeration and “low-low” agglomeration. The improvement of the WECC in eastern Hubei was obvious, while that in central Hubei was slower, and the cities with a lower level of WECC had a more significant improvement effect. (3) Overall, the WECC of cities in Hubei Province tends to shift to a higher level. In a short period of time, the grade improvement of urban WECC in Hubei Province is more likely to occur between adjacent grades. With the increase in time span, the probability of this transition rises gradually. This study has proposed a set of methods for the evaluation and prediction of WECC status, which can provide important decision-making guidance for the early warning and regulation of regional differentiated WECC.