Aim  Patterns of fire regimes across Australia exhibit biogeographic variation in response to four processes. Variations in area burned and fire frequency result from differences in the rates of ‘switching’ of biomass growth, availability to burn, fire weather and ignition. Therefore differing processes limit fire (i.e. the lowest rate of switching) in differing ecosystems. Current and future trends in fire frequency were explored on this basis.Location  Case studies of forests (cool temperate to tropical) and woodlands (temperate to arid) were examined. These represent a broad range of Australian biomes and current fire regimes.Methods  Information on the four processes was applied to each case study and the potential minimum length of interfire interval was predicted and compared to current trends. The potential effects of global change on the processes were then assessed and future trends in fire regimes were predicted.Results  Variations in fire regimes are primarily related to fluctuations in available moisture and dominance by either woody or herbaceous plant cover. Fire in woodland communities (dry climates) is limited by growth of herbaceous fuels (biomass), whereas in forests (wet climates) limitation is by fuel moisture (availability to burn) and fire weather. Increasing dryness in woodland communities will decrease potential fire frequency, while the opposite applies in forests. In the tropics, both forms of limitation are weak due to the annual wet/dry climate. Future change may therefore be constrained.Main conclusions  Increasing dryness may diminish fire activity over much of Australia (dominance of dry woodlands), though increases may occur in temperate forests. Elevated CO₂ effects may confound or reinforce these trends. The prognosis for the future fire regime in Australia is therefore uncertain.

See Letter to the Editor on this article by Adam et al., 26, 3756–3758. See also Response to the Letter by Bradstock et al., 26, e8–e9.

Extreme fire seasons characterised by very large ‘mega-fires’ have demonstrably increased area burnt across forested regions globally. However, the effect of extreme fire seasons on fire severity, a measure of fire impacts on ecosystems, remains unclear. Very large wildfires burnt an unprecedented area of temperate forest, woodland and shrubland across south-eastern Australia in 2019/2020, providing an opportunity to examine the impact of extreme fires on fire severity patterns. We developed an atlas of wildfire severity across south-eastern Australia between 1988 and 2020 to test (a) whether the 2019/2020 fire season was more severe than previous fire seasons, and (b) if the proportion of high-severity fire within the burn extent (HSp) increases with wildfire size and annual area burnt. We demonstrate that the 2019/2020 wildfires in south-eastern Australia were generally greater in extent but not proportionally more severe than previous fires, owing to constant scaling between HSp and annual fire extent across the dominant dry-forest communities. However, HSp did increase with increasing annual fire extent across wet-forests and the less-common rainforest and woodland communities. The absolute area of high-severity fire in 2019/2020 (∼1.8 M ha) was larger than previously seen, accounting for ∼44% of the area burnt by high-severity fire over the past 33 years. Our results demonstrate that extreme fire seasons are a rare but defining feature of fire regimes across forested regions, owing to the disproportionate influence of mega-fires on area burnt.

Aim: The aims were: (1) to identify the environmental drivers of interannual variation in wildfire extent and severity; (2) to examine temporal trends in climatic potential for large and severe wildfires; and (3) to assess whether environmental conditions experienced during the 2019–2020 mega‐fire season were anomalous.Location: South‐eastern Australia.Time period: 1953–2020.Major taxa studied: Temperate forests.Methods: We used satellite‐derived fire severity mapping from 1988 to 2020 to model the effects of drought, weather and fuels on the annual area burned and the proportion of the area burned that was impacted by high‐severity fire across four bioregions. Trends in wildfire extent and severity were then estimated from 1953 to 2020 using these derived models and gridded climate data to assess changes in climatic potential for large and severe wildfires. Estimates of wildfire extent and severity for the 2019–2020 fire season were then assessed against prior seasons (1953–2019).Results: Annual area burned was positively related to the severity of seasonal drought and frequency of fire weather conditions that promote substantial daily fire growth. Wildfire severity was elevated in years with severe fire weather and increased with increasing antecedent drought in years without severe fire weather. Fuels had a lesser effect on wildfire extent and severity than climate. Potential fire extent and severity have increased over time in response to an increased severity of drought and worsening fire weather conditions. Estimates of wildfire extent and severity during the 2019–2020 fire season approached the upper extreme within each bioregion, owing to widespread extreme climatic conditions.Main conclusions: The climatic potential for large and severe forest fires has increased across south‐eastern Australia since the 1950s, probably because of anthropogenic climate change. The magnitude and severity of the 2019–2020 fires reflected climatic conditions that are driving an increase in the size and severity of wildfires.