This study assessed the past changes in extreme precipitation and temperature events across the Himalayan Mountains of Pakistan. This cold and mountainous environmental region has witnessed a significant increase in climate-related disasters over the past few decades. Spatiotemporal changes in extreme temperature and precipitation events were analyzed using 24 indices developed by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). For this study, in situ data of 16 national meteorological stations were obtained from the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) for the past three decades (1991–2020). The significance of the trends was assessed using the modified Mann–Kendall (MMK) test, and the Theil–Sen (TS) slope estimator was used to estimate the slope of the trend. The results showed that there has been a consistent decline in the total precipitation amount across the Himalayan Mountains of Pakistan. The trend exhibited a decrease in the annual average precipitation at a rate of −6.56 mm/year. Simultaneously, there was an increasing trend in the annual average minimum and maximum temperatures at rates of 0.02 °C/year and 0.07 °C/year, respectively. The frequencies of consecutive wet days (CWDs) and maximum 5-day precipitation (RX5day) have decreased significantly, with decreasing rates of −0.40 days/year and −1.18 mm/year, respectively. The amount of precipitation during very wet days (R95p) and extremely wet days was decreased by −19.20 and −13.60 mm/decade, respectively. The warm spell duration (WSDI) and the frequency of warm days (TX90p) across the Himalayan Range both increased by 1.5 and 1.4 days/decade. The number of cold days (TX10p) and cold nights (TN10p) decreased by 2.9 and 3.4 days/decade. The average temperature of the hottest nights (TXn) and the diurnal temperature range (DTR) were increased by 0.10 and 0.30 °C/decade. The results indicated an increasing tendency of dry and warm weather in the Himalayan region of Pakistan, which could have adverse consequences for water resources, agriculture, and disaster management in the country. Therefore, it is essential to prioritize the implementation of localized adaptation techniques in order to enhance sustainable climate resilience and effectively address the emerging climate challenges faced by these mountainous regions.

Precipitation plays a critical role in the hydrological cycle and significantly influences the biodiversity of the Earth’s ecosystems. It also regulates socioeconomic systems by impacting agricultural production and water resources. Analyzing climate-driven changes in precipitation patterns is essential for understanding the hydrological cycle’s response to global warming. This study analyzed the projections of five general circulation models (GCMs) from the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) to evaluate variations in the seasonal and annual patterns of future precipitation over the northern highlands of Pakistan (NHP). The analysis focused on precipitation variations projected for the near future (2021–2050), in comparison to the historical climate (1985–2014), utilizing two combined scenarios from the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and the Representative Concentration Pathways (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5). This study employed the multi-model ensemble (MME) approach, which demonstrated notable seasonal and annual variations in precipitation across the NHP. The average annual precipitation is expected to decrease in both scenarios, with SSP2-4.5 expecting a reduction of −21.42% and SSP5-8.5 expecting a decrease of −22.43%, compared to the historical average precipitation. In both scenarios, the seasonal precipitation patterns are similar. However, the changes are more noticeable in the spring and summer. Both SSPs predict a 15% decrease in summer precipitation, while SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 predict a 5% and 4% decrease in spring precipitation, respectively. These changes can result in more frequent and intense periods of drought, which might adversely impact agriculture, human health, the environment, hydropower generation, and the surrounding ecosystem. This study provides important insights into projected seasonal and annual precipitation changes over the NHP, which is particularly susceptible to the effects of climate change. Thus, it is crucial to understand these predicted changes in precipitation in order to develop strategies for adapting to the climate, assuring water security, and promoting sustainable agricultural practices in this area.

Pakistan, one of the world’s most water-stressed countries, is extremely vulnerable to climate change. This study analyzes the prospective effects of climate change on the rainfall in the Hub River Watershed (HRW), Sulaiman-Kirthar mountainous range of Pakistan. The projections of five global climate models (GCMs), from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6), were used. Analysis of future changes in rainfall patterns was performed under two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). Results showed that the historical annual average rainfall was increasing in the HRW. The annual average rainfall is expected to decrease under SSP2–4.5 in HRW. However, under SSP5-8.5, an increasing trend over the next three decades is expected, particularly over the southern part of the HRB. The findings should further our knowledge of how climate change affects the Hub River Basin and motivate stakeholders and planners to develop the best mitigation plans.

This study analyses the dynamics of snow cover in the Neelum Watershed of Pakistan and the expected changes in temperature and precipitation. Google Earth Engine was used to analyze the variability of winter snow cover with the help of MODIS 8-day data from 2000 to 2020. Two model combinations totaling five CMIP6 General Circulation Models were used to interpret future climate projections based on three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) for 2021–2050. The modified Mann–Kendall test was used to identify trends, and the Theil–Sen estimator was used to analyze the impact. The results demonstrate that the extent of snow-covered area increased significantly between 2000 and 2020, and approximately 6448.83 km² (approximately 87% of the watershed) was covered by snow in winter. All SSP scenarios indicated positive trends in winter precipitation with average rates of 1.87, 0.44, and 0.80 mm/yr under SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5. In all the scenarios, the minimum temperature (0.0405 °C yr⁻¹) and maximum temperature (0.0305 °C yr⁻¹) are consistently growing, as per temperature predictions. These projected changes indicate the danger of more frequent extreme weather events that will put a strain on the region’s ecosystems, agriculture, and hydropower operations. The findings offer the necessary information to inform strategies regarding climate adaptation and mitigation in the Neelum River basin.