The COST (European Cooperation in Science and Technology) Action ES0601: advances in homogenization methods of climate series: an integrated approach (HOME) has executed a blind intercomparison and validation study for monthly homogenization algorithms. Time series of monthly temperature and precipitation were evaluated because of their importance for climate studies and because they represent two important types of statistics (additive and multiplicative). The algorithms were validated against a realistic benchmark dataset. The benchmark contains real inhomogeneous data as well as simulated data with inserted inhomogeneities. Random independent break-type inhomogeneities with normally distributed breakpoint sizes were added to the simulated datasets. To approximate real world conditions, breaks were introduced that occur simultaneously in multiple station series within a simulated network of station data. The simulated time series also contained outliers, missing data periods and local station trends. Further, a stochastic nonlinear global (network-wide) trend was added. Participants provided 25 separate homogenized contributions as part of the blind study. After the deadline at which details of the imposed inhomogeneities were revealed, 22 additional solutions were submitted. These homogenized datasets were assessed by a number of performance metrics including (i) the centered root mean square error relative to the true homogeneous value at various averaging scales, (ii) the error in linear trend estimates and (iii) traditional contingency skill scores. The metrics were computed both using the individual station series as well as the network average regional series. The performance of the contributions depends significantly on the error metric considered. Contingency scores by themselves are not very informative. Although relative homogenization algorithms typically improve the homogeneity of temperature data, only the best ones improve precipitation data. Training the users on homogenization software was found to be very important. Moreover, state-of-the-art relative homogenization algorithms developed to work with an inhomogeneous reference are shown to perform best. The study showed that automatic algorithms can perform as well as manual ones.
Detection and reconstruction of early instrumental series is an interdisciplinary activity that allows us to extend climate data records to periods prior to the mid‐19th century, extending the overlapping periods with climate proxies and characterizing extreme events. In this work, the collection of several data sources corresponding to different periods and locations, obtained with a wide range of methods and instruments by institutions or private observers, provides the following results: Barcelona has a continuous rainfall series with monthly resolution since 1786 and with daily resolution since 1850. It is worth mentioning that the records from Barcelona provide the longest continuous monthly series available on rainfall in the Iberian Peninsula. The monthly records have been homogenized by using a relative homogenization approach, HOMER. The results highlight the existence of five breaks, most of them due to relocations or instrumentation changes documented in the metadata, which have been adjusted to remove non‐climatic factors. The homogenized annual and winter precipitation series in Barcelona show a statistically significant increase from 1786 to 2014, although this increase is mainly due to the concentration of negative anomalies during the first half of the 19th century, which is also clearly visible in the seasonal series. Specifically, an extreme mega‐drought episode was observed from the 1810s to the 1830s, which is supported by different proxy data. For a better dissemination of the homogenized monthly series developed in this study, the data set is freely available to the research community.
18 September 2020 in Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
In previous studies the Western Mediterranean Oscillation index (WeMOi) at daily resolution has proven to constitute an effective tool for analysing the occurrence of episodes of torrential precipitation over eastern Spain. The western Mediterranean region is a very sensitive area, since climate change can enhance these weather extremes. In the present study we created a catalogue of the extreme torrential episodes (≥200 mm in 24 h) that took place in Catalonia (NE Iberia) during the 1951–2016 study period (66 years). We computed daily WeMOi values and constructed WeMOi calendars. Our principal result reveals the occurrence of 50 episodes (0.8 cases per year), mainly concentrated in the autumn. We confirmed a threshold of WeMOi ≤ −2 to define an extreme negative WeMO phase at daily resolution. Most of the 50 episodes (60 %) in the study area occurred on days presenting an extreme negative WeMOi value. Specifically, the most negative WeMOi values are detected in autumn, from 11 to 20 October, coinciding with the highest frequency of extreme torrential events. On comparing the subperiods, we observed a statistically significant decrease in WeMOi values in all months, particularly in late October and in November and December. No changes in the frequency of these extreme torrential episodes were observed between both subperiods. In contrast, a displacement of the extreme torrential episodes is detected from early to late autumn; this can be related to a statistically significant warming of sea temperature.