A new fast clear-sky model called McClear was developed to estimate the downwelling shortwave direct and global irradiances received at ground level under clear skies. It is a fully physical model replacing empirical relations or simpler models used before. It exploits the recent results on aerosol properties, and total column content in water vapour and ozone produced by the MACC project (Monitoring Atmosphere Composition and Climate). It accurately reproduces the irradiance computed by the libRadtran reference radiative transfer model with a computational speed approximately 10⁵ times greater by adopting the abaci, or look-up table, approach combined with interpolation functions. It is therefore suited for geostationary satellite retrievals or numerical weather prediction schemes with many pixels or grid points, respectively. McClear irradiances were compared to 1 min measurements made in clear-sky conditions at several stations within the Baseline Surface Radiation Network in various climates. The bias for global irradiance comprises between −6 and 25 W m⁻². The RMSE ranges from 20 W m⁻² (3% of the mean observed irradiance) to 36 W m⁻² (5%) and the correlation coefficient ranges between 0.95 and 0.99. The bias for the direct irradiance comprises between −48 and +33 W m⁻². The root mean square error (RMSE) ranges from 33 W m⁻² (5%) to 64 W m⁻² (10%). The correlation coefficient ranges between 0.84 and 0.98. This work demonstrates the quality of the McClear model combined with MACC products, and indirectly the quality of the aerosol properties modelled by the MACC reanalysis.

The potential for transferring a larger share of our energy supply toward renewable energy is a widely discussed goal in society, economics, environment, and climate-related programs. For a larger share of electricity to come from fluctuating solar and wind energy-based electricity, production forecasts are required to ensure successful grid integration. Concentrating solar power holds the potential to make the fluctuating solar electricity a dispatchable resource by using both heat storage systems and solar production forecasts based on a reliable weather prediction. These solar technologies exploit the direct irradiance at the surface, which is a quantity very dependent on the aerosol extinction with values up to 100%. Results from present-day numerical weather forecasts are inadequate, as they generally use climatologies for dealing with aerosol extinction. Therefore, meteorological forecasts have to be extended by chemical weather forecasts. The paper aims at quantifying on a global scale the question of whether and where daily mean or hourly forecasts are required, or if persistence is sufficient in some regions. It assesses the performance of recently introduced NWP aerosol schemes by using the ECMWF/Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate (MACC) forecast, which is a preparatory activity for the upcoming European Global Monitoring for Environment and Security (GMES) Atmosphere Service.

The incoming downward shortwave solar irradiance is harvested to an increasing extent by solar power plants. However, the variable nature of this energy source poses an operational challenge for solar power plants and electrical grids. Intra hour solar irradiance nowcasts with a high temporal and spatial resolution could be used to tackle this challenge. All sky imager (ASI) based nowcasting systems fulfill the requirements in terms of temporal and spatial resolution. However, ASI nowcasts can only be used if the required accuracies for applications in solar power plants and electrical grids are fulfilled. Scalar error metrics, such as mean absolute deviation, root mean square deviation, and skill score are commonly used to estimate the accuracy of nowcasting systems. However, these overall error metrics represented by a single number per metric are neither suitable to determine the real time accuracy of a nowcasting system in the actual weather situation, nor suitable to describe any spatially resolved nowcast accuracy. The performance of ASI-based nowcasting systems is strongly related to the prevailing weather conditions. Depending on weather conditions, large discrepancies between the overall and current system uncertainties are conceivable. Furthermore, the nowcast accuracy varies strongly within the irradiance map as higher errors may occur at transient zones close to cloud shadow edges. In this paper, we present a novel approach for the spatially resolved real-time uncertainty specification of ASI-based nowcasting systems. The current irradiance conditions are classified in one of eight distinct temporal direct normal irradiance (DNI) variability classes. For each class and lead-time, an upper and lower uncertainty value is derived from historical data, which describes a coverage probability of 68.3%. This database of uncertainty values is based on deviations of the irradiance maps, compared to three reference pyrheliometers in Tabernas, Andalucia over two years (2016 and 2017). Increased uncertainties due to transient effects are considered by detecting transient zones close to cloud shadow edges within the DNI map. The width of the transient zones is estimated by the current average cloud height, cloud speed, lead-time, and Sun position. The final spatially resolved uncertainties are validated with three reference pyrheliometers, using a data set consisting of the entire year 2018. Furthermore, we developed a procedure based on the DNI temporal variability classes to estimate the expected average uncertainties of the nowcasting system at any geographical location. The novel method can also be applied for global tilted or horizontal irradiance and is assumed to improve the applicability of the ASI nowcasts.

The modification of an existing cloud property retrieval scheme for the Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager (SEVIRI) instrument on board the geostationary Meteosat satellites is described to utilize its high-resolution visible (HRV) channel for increasing the spatial resolution of its physical outputs. This results in products with a nadir spatial resolution of 1×1 km² compared to the standard 3×3 km² resolution offered by the narrowband channels. This improvement thus greatly reduces the resolution gap between current geostationary and polar-orbiting meteorological satellite imagers. In the first processing step, cloudiness is determined from the HRV observations by a threshold-based cloud masking algorithm. Subsequently, a linear model that links the 0.6 µm, 0.8 µm, and HRV reflectances provides a physical constraint to incorporate the spatial high-frequency component of the HRV observations into the retrieval of cloud optical depth. The implementation of the method is described, including the ancillary datasets used. It is demonstrated that the omission of high-frequency variations in the cloud-absorbing 1.6 µm channel results in comparatively large uncertainties in the retrieved cloud effective radius, likely due to the mismatch in channel resolutions. A newly developed downscaling scheme for the 1.6 µm reflectance is therefore applied to mitigate the effects of this scale mismatch. Benefits of the increased spatial resolution of the resulting SEVIRI products are demonstrated for three example applications: (i) for a convective cloud field, it is shown that significantly better agreement between the distributions of cloud optical depth retrieved from SEVIRI and from collocated MODIS observations is achieved. (ii) The temporal evolution of cloud properties for a growing convective storm at standard and HRV spatial resolutions are compared, illustrating an improved contrast in growth signatures resulting from the use of the HRV channel. (iii) An example of surface solar irradiance, determined from the retrieved cloud properties, is shown, for which the HRV channel helps to better capture the large spatiotemporal variability induced by convective clouds. These results suggest that incorporating the HRV channel into the retrieval has potential for improving Meteosat-based cloud products for several application domains.

A scheme using satellite-derived irradiance measurements to model the feed-in power of residential photovoltaic (PV) systems in a low voltage distribution grid is described. It is validated against smart meter measurements from a test site with 12 residential PV systems in the city of Ulm, Germany, during May 2013 to December 2014. The PV feed-in power is simulated in a 15-min time resolution based on irradiance data derived from Meteosat Second Generation satellite images by the physically based retrieval scheme Heliosat-4. The PV simulation is based on the nominal power and location of the PV systems as provided by the distribution system operator. Orientation angles are taken from high resolution aerial laser-scan data. The overall average mean error of PV feed-in power is 4.6% and the average root-mean-squared error is 12.3% for the individual systems. Relative values are given with respect to the total installed power of 152.3kWp. Sensitivity studies discuss the need for knowing the exact orientation angles of each individual PV system or the usefulness of a single ground-based measurement as alternative to satellite observations. As an application of the scheme, the modelling of the effect of the power flow from the residential PV on the load flow of the low voltage distribution grid transformer is described and illustrates the advantage of the discussed approach for distribution system operators

Solar photovoltaic power output is modulated by atmospheric aerosols and clouds and thus contains valuable information on the optical properties of the atmosphere. As a ground-based data source with high spatiotemporal resolution it has great potential to complement other ground-based solar irradiance measurements as well as those of weather models and satellites, thus leading to an improved characterisation of global horizontal irradiance. In this work several algorithms are presented that can retrieve global tilted and horizontal irradiance and atmospheric optical properties from solar photovoltaic data and/or pyranometer measurements. The method is tested on data from two measurement campaigns that took place in the Allgäu region in Germany in autumn 2018 and summer 2019, and the results are compared with local pyranometer measurements as well as satellite and weather model data. Using power data measured at 1 Hz and averaged to 1 min resolution along with a non-linear photovoltaic module temperature model, global horizontal irradiance is extracted with a mean bias error compared to concurrent pyranometer measurements of 5.79 W m⁻² (7.35 W m⁻²) under clear (cloudy) skies, averaged over the two campaigns, whereas for the retrieval using coarser 15 min power data with a linear temperature model the mean bias error is 5.88 and 41.87 W m⁻² under clear and cloudy skies, respectively. During completely overcast periods the cloud optical depth is extracted from photovoltaic power using a lookup table method based on a 1D radiative transfer simulation, and the results are compared to both satellite retrievals and data from the Consortium for Small-scale Modelling (COSMO) weather model. Potential applications of this approach for extracting cloud optical properties are discussed, as well as certain limitations, such as the representation of 3D radiative effects that occur under broken-cloud conditions. In principle this method could provide an unprecedented amount of ground-based data on both irradiance and optical properties of the atmosphere, as long as the required photovoltaic power data are available and properly pre-screened to remove unwanted artefacts in the signal. Possible solutions to this problem are discussed in the context of future work.