City centres of Europe are often composed of unreinforced masonry structural aggregates, whose seismic response is challenging to predict. To advance the state of the art on the seismic response of these aggregates, the Adjacent Interacting Masonry Structures (AIMS) subproject from Horizon 2020 project Seismology and Earthquake Engineering Research Infrastructure Alliance for Europe (SERA) provides shake-table test data of a two-unit, double-leaf stone masonry aggregate subjected to two horizontal components of dynamic excitation. A blind prediction was organized with participants from academia and industry to test modelling approaches and assumptions and to learn about the extent of uncertainty in modelling for such masonry aggregates. The participants were provided with the full set of material and geometrical data, construction details and original seismic input and asked to predict prior to the test the expected seismic response in terms of damage mechanisms, base-shear forces, and roof displacements. The modelling approaches used differ significantly in the level of detail and the modelling assumptions. This paper provides an overview of the adopted modelling approaches and their subsequent predictions. It further discusses the range of assumptions made when modelling masonry walls, floors and connections, and aims at discovering how the common solutions regarding modelling masonry in general, and masonry aggregates in particular, affect the results. The results are evaluated both in terms of damage mechanisms, base shear forces, displacements and interface openings in both directions, and then compared with the experimental results. The modelling approaches featuring Discrete Element Method (DEM) led to the best predictions in terms of displacements, while a submission using rigid block limit analysis led to the best prediction in terms of damage mechanisms. Large coefficients of variation of predicted displacements and general underestimation of displacements in comparison with experimental results, except for DEM models, highlight the need for further consensus building on suitable modelling assumptions for such masonry aggregates.

This paper presents numerical simulations within the frame of the project SERA—AIMS (Seismic Testing of Adjacent Interacting Masonry Structures). The study includes blind pre-diction and post-diction stages. The former was developed before performing the shaking table tests at the laboratory facilities of LNEC (Lisbon), while the latter was carried out once the test results were known. For both, three-dimensional finite element models were prepared following a macro-modelling approach. The structure consisted of a half-scaled masonry aggregate composed by two units with different floor levels. Material properties used for the pre-diction model were based on preliminary tests previously provided to the participants. The masonry constitutive model used for the pre-diction study reproduced classical stress–strain envelope, whereas a more refined model was adopted for the post-diction. After eigenvalue analysis, incremental nonlinear time history analysis was performed under a unique sequence based on the given load protocol to account for damage accumulation. In the post-diction, the numerical model was calibrated on the data recorded during the shaking table tests and nonlinear dynamic analysis repeated under the recorded accelerogram sequence. The interaction between the two units was simulated through interface elements. Moreover, the timber floors were accounted following different strategies: not modelling or considering nonlinear wall-to-floor connections. Advantages and disadvantages are then analysed, comparing the pre-diction and post-diction results with the experimental data. Numerical results differ from the experimental outcomes regarding displacements and interface pounding, although a clear improvement is visible in the post-diction model.

Masonry buildings of historical centres are usually organized within aggregates, whose structural performance against seismic actions is challenging to predict and constitutes still an open issue. The SERA—AIMS (Seismic Testing of Adjacent Interacting Masonry Structures) project was developed to provide additional experimental data by testing a half-scale, two-unit stone masonry aggregate subjected to two horizontal components of dynamic excitation. In this context, this paper investigates the reliability of the modelling approach and the assumptions adopted to generate a three-dimensional continuum finite element model. The work involves two stages, namely a blind pre-diction and a post-diction phase, and proposes a series of simulation analyses including a strategy to shorten the actual records and save computation costs. The study was performed to investigate the extent of uncertainty in modelling for such masonry aggregates in relation to the experimental outcomes. Pre-diction results were proven to be not accurate in terms of predicted displacements and damage patterns. The upgrades introduced for the post-diction analyses, including the calibration of the elastic modulus and the introduction of a non-linear interface between the two units, allowed to improve the outcomes, with reasonable results in terms of predicted base shear force, displacements along Y-direction and damage pattern for the non-linear stage. The overall approach showed to be appropriate for the structural analysis of existing masonry aggregates, but the accurate modelling of this type of structure remains challenging due to the high level of uncertainties.