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Dr. J.H. (Jan) Kwakkel
Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management, Delft University of Technology, 2628 BX Delft, the Netherland

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Research Keywords & Expertise

0 Decision making under deep uncertainty
0 Exploratory modeling
0 Scenario discovery
0 Robust decision making
0 Adaptation pathways

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Decision making under deep uncertainty
Scenario discovery
Robust decision making
Exploratory modeling
Adaptation pathways

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Journal article
Published: 31 August 2021 in Environmental Modelling & Software
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To support equitable planning, model-based analyses can be used to explore inequality patterns arising from different scenarios. Scenario discovery is increasingly used to extract insights from ensembles of simulation. Here, we apply two scenario discovery approaches for unraveling inequality patterns and their drivers, with an application to spatial inequality of farms profitability in the Vietnam Mekong Delta. First, we follow an established sequential approach where we begin with clustering the inequality patterns from the simulation results and next identify model input subspaces that best explain each cluster. Second, we propose a novel concurrent approach using Multivariate Regression Trees to simultaneously classify inequality patterns and identify their corresponding input subspaces. Both approaches have comparable output space separability performance. The concurrent approach yields significantly better input space separability, but this comes at the expense of having a larger number of subspaces, requiring analysts to make extra effort to distill policy-relevant insights.

ACS Style

Bramka Arga Jafino; Jan H. Kwakkel. A novel concurrent approach for multiclass scenario discovery using Multivariate Regression Trees: Exploring spatial inequality patterns in the Vietnam Mekong Delta under uncertainty. Environmental Modelling & Software 2021, 105177 .

AMA Style

Bramka Arga Jafino, Jan H. Kwakkel. A novel concurrent approach for multiclass scenario discovery using Multivariate Regression Trees: Exploring spatial inequality patterns in the Vietnam Mekong Delta under uncertainty. Environmental Modelling & Software. 2021; ():105177.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Bramka Arga Jafino; Jan H. Kwakkel. 2021. "A novel concurrent approach for multiclass scenario discovery using Multivariate Regression Trees: Exploring spatial inequality patterns in the Vietnam Mekong Delta under uncertainty." Environmental Modelling & Software , no. : 105177.

Journal article
Published: 14 July 2021 in Environmental Modelling & Software
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This paper proposes a novel optimization approach for multi-scenario multi-objective robust decision making, as well as an alternative way for scenario discovery and identifying vulnerable scenarios even before any solution generation. To demonstrate and test the novel approach, we use the classic shallow lake problem. We compare the results obtained with the novel approach to those obtained with previously used approaches. We show that the novel approach guarantees the feasibility and robust efficiency of the produced solutions under all selected scenarios, while decreasing computation cost, addresses the scenario-dependency issues, and enables the decision-makers to explore the trade-off between optimality/feasibility in any selected scenario and robustness across a broader range of scenarios. We also find that the lake problem is ill-suited for reflecting trade-offs in robust performance over the set of scenarios and Pareto optimality in any specific scenario, highlighting the need for novel benchmark problems to properly evaluate novel approaches.

ACS Style

Babooshka Shavazipour; Jan H. Kwakkel; Kaisa Miettinen. Multi-scenario multi-objective robust optimization under deep uncertainty: A posteriori approach. Environmental Modelling & Software 2021, 144, 105134 .

AMA Style

Babooshka Shavazipour, Jan H. Kwakkel, Kaisa Miettinen. Multi-scenario multi-objective robust optimization under deep uncertainty: A posteriori approach. Environmental Modelling & Software. 2021; 144 ():105134.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Babooshka Shavazipour; Jan H. Kwakkel; Kaisa Miettinen. 2021. "Multi-scenario multi-objective robust optimization under deep uncertainty: A posteriori approach." Environmental Modelling & Software 144, no. : 105134.

Journal article
Published: 24 May 2021 in Earth's Future
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The need for explicitly considering equity in climate change adaptation planning is increasingly being recognized. However, evaluations of adaptation often adopt an aggregated perspective, while disaggregation of results is important to learn about who benefits when and where. A typical example is adaptation of rice agriculture in the Vietnam Mekong Delta. Efforts focused on flood protection have mainly benefitted large‐scale farmers while harming small‐scale farmers. To investigate the distributional consequences of adaptation policies in the Vietnam Mekong Delta, we assess both aggregate total output and equity indicators, as well as disaggregated impacts in terms of district‐level farming profitability. Doing so requires an adequate representation of the multisectoral dynamics between the human and biophysical systems which influence farming profitability. We develop a spatially‐explicit integrated assessment model that couples inundation, sedimentation, soil fertility and nutrient dynamics, and behavioral land‐use change and farming profitability calculation. We find that inter‐district inequality responds in a non‐linear way to climatic and socio‐economic changes and choices of adaptation policies. The patterns of who wins and who loses could change substantially when a different policy is implemented or if a slightly different uncertain future materializes. We also find that there is no simple ranking of alternative adaptation policies, so one should make trade‐offs based on agreed preferences. Accounting for equity implies exploring the distribution of outcomes over different groups over a range of uncertain futures. Only by accounting for multisectoral dynamics can planners anticipate the equity consequences of adaptation and prepare additional measures to aid the worse‐off actors.

ACS Style

Bramka Arga Jafino; Jan H. Kwakkel; Frans Klijn; Nguyen Viet Dung; Hedwig van Delden; Marjolijn Haasnoot; Edwin H. Sutanudjaja. Accounting for Multisectoral Dynamics in Supporting Equitable Adaptation Planning: A Case Study on the Rice Agriculture in the Vietnam Mekong Delta. Earth's Future 2021, 9, 1 .

AMA Style

Bramka Arga Jafino, Jan H. Kwakkel, Frans Klijn, Nguyen Viet Dung, Hedwig van Delden, Marjolijn Haasnoot, Edwin H. Sutanudjaja. Accounting for Multisectoral Dynamics in Supporting Equitable Adaptation Planning: A Case Study on the Rice Agriculture in the Vietnam Mekong Delta. Earth's Future. 2021; 9 (5):1.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Bramka Arga Jafino; Jan H. Kwakkel; Frans Klijn; Nguyen Viet Dung; Hedwig van Delden; Marjolijn Haasnoot; Edwin H. Sutanudjaja. 2021. "Accounting for Multisectoral Dynamics in Supporting Equitable Adaptation Planning: A Case Study on the Rice Agriculture in the Vietnam Mekong Delta." Earth's Future 9, no. 5: 1.

Review
Published: 17 May 2021 in WIREs Climate Change
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Models for supporting climate adaptation and mitigation planning, mostly in the form of Integrated Assessment Models, are poorly equipped for aiding questions related to fairness of adaptation and mitigation strategies, because they often disregard distributional outcomes. When evaluating policies using such models, the costs and benefits are typically aggregated across all actors in the system, and over the entire planning horizon. While a policy may be beneficial when considering the aggregate outcome, it can be harmful to some people, somewhere, at some point in time. The practice of aggregating over all actors and over time thus gives rise to problems of justice; it could also exacerbate existing injustices. While the literature discusses some of these injustices in ad-hoc and case specific manner, a systematic approach for considering distributive justice in model-based climate change planning is lacking. This study aims to fill this gap by proposing 11 requirements that an Integrated Assessment Model should meet in order to enable the assessment of distributive justice in climate mitigation and adaptation policies. We derive the requirements from various ethical imperatives stemming from the theory of distributive justice. More specifically, we consider both intra-generational (among people within one generation) and intergenerational (between generations) distributive justice. We investigate to what extent the 11 requirements are being met in recent model-based climate planning studies, and highlight several directions for future research to advance the accounting for distributive justice in model-based support for climate change planning. This article is categorized under: Climate, Nature, and Ethics > Climate Change and Global Justice

ACS Style

Bramka Arga Jafino; Jan H. Kwakkel; Behnam Taebi. Enabling assessment of distributive justice through models for climate change planning: A review of recent advances and a research agenda. WIREs Climate Change 2021, 12, e721 .

AMA Style

Bramka Arga Jafino, Jan H. Kwakkel, Behnam Taebi. Enabling assessment of distributive justice through models for climate change planning: A review of recent advances and a research agenda. WIREs Climate Change. 2021; 12 (4):e721.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Bramka Arga Jafino; Jan H. Kwakkel; Behnam Taebi. 2021. "Enabling assessment of distributive justice through models for climate change planning: A review of recent advances and a research agenda." WIREs Climate Change 12, no. 4: e721.

Commentaries
Published: 03 April 2021 in FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE
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ACS Style

Jan Kwakkel; Willem Auping. Reaction: A commentary on Lustick and Tetlock (2021). FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE 2021, 3, 1 .

AMA Style

Jan Kwakkel, Willem Auping. Reaction: A commentary on Lustick and Tetlock (2021). FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE. 2021; 3 (2):1.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Jan Kwakkel; Willem Auping. 2021. "Reaction: A commentary on Lustick and Tetlock (2021)." FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE 3, no. 2: 1.

Preprint content
Published: 04 March 2021
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The importance of considering equity in climate change adaptation planning is increasingly being acknowledged. A preferred adaptation strategy is one that not only yields robust outcomes under multiple futures, but also has a fair distribution of benefits and harms across affected actors. In this study we propose two complementary approaches for assessing the equity of impacts of adaptation strategies. First, in the explorative approach, we explore what different multi-actor inequality patterns might emerge under different policy and uncertainty scenarios. Put differently, we identify who benefits and who loses under which kind of circumstances. Second, in the normative approach, we attempt to rank alternative strategies based on their performance across uncertain futures. Identifying which strategy is more preferable requires us to define what kind of distribution is considered to be ‘good’. We thus employ six alternative distributive moral principles that each has its own maxim in justifying the moral righteousness of a distribution: utilitarianism, prioritarianism, sufficientarianism, envy measures, weighted utilitarianism, and the Rawlsian difference principle.

We apply both approaches to a case study on agricultural adaptation planning in An Giang and Dong Thap, two provinces in the upper Vietnam Mekong Delta. We develop an integrated assessment metamodel to assess the equity implications of six alternative adaptation strategies, including dikes (de)construction policies, fertilizer subsidy, and seeds upgrading. We evaluate the distributional impacts of the alternative strategies to 23 districts in the two provinces under a large number of strategic scenarios, i.e., combinations of policy scenarios and uncertain futures. From the explorative approach, we discover six distinctive inequality patterns and identify the strategic scenarios that give rise to each inequality pattern. We find a trade-off between districts located along the Mekong river and those located further away. In some strategic scenarios the former group of districts are substantially better-off than the latter, and vice versa.

From the normative approach, we find a mixed result of preferred strategies depending on what moral principle is being adopted. The dikes deconstruction policy in Dong Thap, which performs best from a utilitarian point of view, ranks fifth from a prioritarian perspective. Upgrading seed is the most preferred strategy from the prioritarian view, but it performs the worst when looked at from a sufficientarian point of view. We further find that the results from each principle are strongly affected by uncertainties. For example, the fertilizer subsidy policy ranks last in approximately 70% of the uncertain futures according to the sufficientarian principle, but it becomes the most preferable in the other 20% of the uncertain futures. Our findings further emphasize the simultaneous consideration of both uncertainties and alternative distributive principles in adaptation planning. By using multiple moral principles, we expand the information base upon which adaptation decisions are made, and thus minimizing potential surprises and unintended consequences from our choice.

ACS Style

Bramka Arga Jafino; Jan Kwakkel. Equitable adaptation planning under deep uncertainty for the upper Vietnam Mekong Delta. 2021, 1 .

AMA Style

Bramka Arga Jafino, Jan Kwakkel. Equitable adaptation planning under deep uncertainty for the upper Vietnam Mekong Delta. . 2021; ():1.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Bramka Arga Jafino; Jan Kwakkel. 2021. "Equitable adaptation planning under deep uncertainty for the upper Vietnam Mekong Delta." , no. : 1.

Preprint content
Published: 03 March 2021
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Tide gauges are the main source of information about sea-level changes in the Industrial Age. When looking at global mean values, century-long reconstructions produce rates between 1-2 mm/yr, while estimates over the last three decades reveal a much faster rise of about 3 mm/yr, as also indicated by satellite altimetry observations. In spite of this evidence for a recent acceleration, its quantification remains a challenging and relevant task, because results are highly dependent on the length of the record and on the reconstruction technique, whereas decision makers require clear proof to legitimise action. While global mean results are very important to understand climate change, regional to local variations are more relevant for the purpose of planning mitigation and adaptation measures. However, mainly due to natural variability, looking at individual tide gauge stations hampers the accurate determination of linear and non-linear trends.
We developed a time series analysis framework to determine whether SLR is accelerating by detecting the presence of a break-point in the long-term trend. We applied the framework to tide gauges in the southern North Sea, where several stations provide high-quality and uninterrupted records spanning more than a century (1890-2018). On average, coastal sea level rise increased from ~1.8 mm/yr over the first century of our study to ~2.8 mm/yr over the last 25 years, albeit with large inter-station differences. We performed several tests to assess the impact of natural variability on the observed trend changes and verified that stable break-points are only detected since the late 1970s, with the exact year depending on the chosen time-window. Therefore, we believe that the high sea-level rates observed over the last few decades are likely representing long-term changes.

ACS Style

Riccardo Riva; David Steffelbauer; Jos Timmermans; Jan Kwakkel; Mark Bakker. Evidence of acceleration in regional sea-level rise in the North Sea. 2021, 1 .

AMA Style

Riccardo Riva, David Steffelbauer, Jos Timmermans, Jan Kwakkel, Mark Bakker. Evidence of acceleration in regional sea-level rise in the North Sea. . 2021; ():1.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Riccardo Riva; David Steffelbauer; Jos Timmermans; Jan Kwakkel; Mark Bakker. 2021. "Evidence of acceleration in regional sea-level rise in the North Sea." , no. : 1.

Article
Published: 22 December 2020
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The need for explicitly considering equity in adaptation planning is increasingly being recognized. However, quantitative evaluations of adaptation options often adopt an aggregated perspective, while disaggregation of results is important to learn about who benefits when and where. A typical example is adaptation of rice agriculture in the Vietnam Mekong Delta. In the past two decades, efforts focused on flood protection have mainly benefitted large-scale farmers while harming small-scale farmers. To investigate the distributional consequences of adaptation policies in the Vietnam Mekong Delta, we assess both aggregate efficiency and equity indicators, as well as disaggregated impacts in terms of district-level farmers profitability. Doing so requires an adequate representation of the co-evolutionary dynamics between the human and environmental systems which influence farmers profitability. We develop a spatially-explicit integrated assessment model that couples inundation and sedimentation dynamics, soil fertility and nutrient dynamics, and behavioral land-use change and farmers profitability calculation. We find that inter-district inequality responds in a non-linear way to climatic and socio-economic changes and choices of adaptation policies. Distinctive inequality patterns emerge from even slightly different combinations of policies and realizations of uncertain futures. We also find that there is no simple ranking of alternative adaptation policies, so one should make trade-offs based on the agreed preferences. Accounting for equity implies exploring the distribution of outcomes over different actor groups over a range of uncertain futures. Only by accounting for multisectoral dynamics can planners anticipate the equity consequences of adaptation options and prepare additional measures to aid the worse-off actors.

ACS Style

Bramka Arga Jafino; Jan Kwakkel; Frans Klijn; Nguyen Viet Dung; Hedwig Van Delden; Marjolijn Haasnoot; Edwin H. Sutanudjaja. Accounting for multisectoral dynamics in supporting equitable adaptation planning: A case study on the rice agriculture in the Vietnam Mekong Delta. 2020, 1 .

AMA Style

Bramka Arga Jafino, Jan Kwakkel, Frans Klijn, Nguyen Viet Dung, Hedwig Van Delden, Marjolijn Haasnoot, Edwin H. Sutanudjaja. Accounting for multisectoral dynamics in supporting equitable adaptation planning: A case study on the rice agriculture in the Vietnam Mekong Delta. . 2020; ():1.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Bramka Arga Jafino; Jan Kwakkel; Frans Klijn; Nguyen Viet Dung; Hedwig Van Delden; Marjolijn Haasnoot; Edwin H. Sutanudjaja. 2020. "Accounting for multisectoral dynamics in supporting equitable adaptation planning: A case study on the rice agriculture in the Vietnam Mekong Delta." , no. : 1.

Journal article
Published: 06 October 2020 in Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
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Coastal cities combine intensive socioeconomic activities and investments with high exposure to flood hazards. Developing effective strategies to manage flood risk in coastal cities is often a costly and complicated process. In designing strategies, engineers rely on computationally demanding flood simulation models, but they can only compare a limited number of strategies due to computational constraints. This limits the efficacy of standard flood simulation models in the crucial conceptual phase of flood risk management. This paper presents the Flood Risk Reduction Evaluation and Screening (FLORES) model, which provides useful risk information in this early conceptual phase. FLORES rapidly performs numerous simulations and compares the impact of many storms, strategies, and future scenarios. This article presents FLORES and demonstrates its merits in a case study for Beira, Mozambique. Our results demonstrate that expansion of the drainage capacity and strengthening of its coastal protection in the southwest are crucial components of any effective flood risk management strategy for Beira.

ACS Style

Erik C. Van Berchum; Mathijs Van Ledden; Jos S. Timmermans; Jan H. Kwakkel; Sebastiaan N. Jonkman. Rapid flood risk screening model for compound flood events in Beira, Mozambique. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 2020, 20, 2633 -2646.

AMA Style

Erik C. Van Berchum, Mathijs Van Ledden, Jos S. Timmermans, Jan H. Kwakkel, Sebastiaan N. Jonkman. Rapid flood risk screening model for compound flood events in Beira, Mozambique. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences. 2020; 20 (10):2633-2646.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Erik C. Van Berchum; Mathijs Van Ledden; Jos S. Timmermans; Jan H. Kwakkel; Sebastiaan N. Jonkman. 2020. "Rapid flood risk screening model for compound flood events in Beira, Mozambique." Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 20, no. 10: 2633-2646.

Journal article
Published: 27 August 2020 in Water Resources Research
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Multiple plausible future scenarios are being used increasingly in preference to a single deterministic or probabilistic prediction of the future in the long‐term planning of water resources systems. These scenarios enable the determination of the robustness of a system – the consideration of performance across a range of plausible futures – and allow an assessment of which possible future system configurations result in a greater level of robustness. There are many approaches to selecting scenarios, and previous studies have observed that the choice of scenarios might affect the estimated robustness of the system. However, these observations have been anecdotal and qualitative. This paper develops a systematic, quantitative methodology for exploring the influence of scenario selection on the robustness and the ranking of decision alternatives. The methodology is illustrated on The Lake Problem. The quantitative results obtained confirm the qualitative observations of previous works, showing that the selection of scenarios is important, as it has a large influence on the robustness value calculated for each decision alternative. However, we show it has a relatively small influence on how those decision alternatives are ranked. This implies that despite the difference in robustness values, similar decision outcomes will be reached in this case study, regardless of the basis on which the scenarios are obtained. It is also revealed that the impact of the scenarios on the robustness values is due to complex interactions with the system model and robustness metrics.

ACS Style

C. McPhail; H. R. Maier; S. Westra; J. H. Kwakkel; L. Van Der Linden. Impact of scenario selection on robustness. Water Resources Research 2020, 56, 1 .

AMA Style

C. McPhail, H. R. Maier, S. Westra, J. H. Kwakkel, L. Van Der Linden. Impact of scenario selection on robustness. Water Resources Research. 2020; 56 (9):1.

Chicago/Turabian Style

C. McPhail; H. R. Maier; S. Westra; J. H. Kwakkel; L. Van Der Linden. 2020. "Impact of scenario selection on robustness." Water Resources Research 56, no. 9: 1.

Opinion
Published: 23 June 2020 in WIREs Climate Change
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Governing risks is not only a technical matter, but also a matter of ethical and societal considerations. In this article, we argue that in addition to scientific and technical uncertainties, we need to also address normative uncertainties of risk decisions. We define normative uncertainties as situations where there are different partially morally defensible ‐‐ but incompatible ‐‐ options or courses of action, or ones in which there is no fully morally defensible option. We conceptualize normative uncertainties, distinguishing between the four categories of evolutionary, theoretical, conceptual, and epistemic normative uncertainties. We will show different instances of normative uncertainties in climate adaptation strategies. We finally present two methods for identifying and dealing with normative uncertainties, namely, the Wide Reflective Equilibrium and adaptive planning. Situations of normative uncertainties have always been and will continue to be present in risk decisions and they have often been dealt with in an implicit manner. In this article, we make them explicit, which could lead to better morally informed and justified decisions about climate risks. This article is categorized under: Climate, Nature, and Ethics > Ethics and Climate Change.

ACS Style

Behnam Taebi; Jan H. Kwakkel; Céline Kermisch. Governing climate risks in the face of normative uncertainties. WIREs Climate Change 2020, 11, 1 .

AMA Style

Behnam Taebi, Jan H. Kwakkel, Céline Kermisch. Governing climate risks in the face of normative uncertainties. WIREs Climate Change. 2020; 11 (5):1.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Behnam Taebi; Jan H. Kwakkel; Céline Kermisch. 2020. "Governing climate risks in the face of normative uncertainties." WIREs Climate Change 11, no. 5: 1.

Research article
Published: 17 June 2020 in Sustainable and Resilient Infrastructure
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ACS Style

Jos Timmermans; Emiel Van Druten; Marcel Wauben; Jan Kwakkel. Polder pumping-station for the future: designing and retrofitting infrastructure systems under structural uncertainty. Sustainable and Resilient Infrastructure 2020, 1 -17.

AMA Style

Jos Timmermans, Emiel Van Druten, Marcel Wauben, Jan Kwakkel. Polder pumping-station for the future: designing and retrofitting infrastructure systems under structural uncertainty. Sustainable and Resilient Infrastructure. 2020; ():1-17.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Jos Timmermans; Emiel Van Druten; Marcel Wauben; Jan Kwakkel. 2020. "Polder pumping-station for the future: designing and retrofitting infrastructure systems under structural uncertainty." Sustainable and Resilient Infrastructure , no. : 1-17.

Preprint content
Published: 23 March 2020
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Tide gauges are the main source of information about sea-level changes in the Industrial Age. When looking at global mean values, century-long reconstructions produce rates between 1-2 mm/yr, while estimates over the last three decades reveal a much faster rise of about 3 mm/yr, as also indicated by satellite altimetry observations. In spite of this evidence for a recent acceleration, its quantification remains a challenging and relevant task, because results are highly dependent on the length of the record and on the reconstruction technique, whereas decision makers require clear proof to legitimise action.

While global mean results are very important to understand climate change, regional to local variations are more relevant for the purpose of planning mitigation and adaptation measures. However, mainly due to natural variability, looking at individual tide gauge stations hampers the accurate determination of linear and non-linear trends.

We analyse tide gauge records along the Dutch coast by means of advanced statistical techniques, with the main objective of determining whether and under which conditions it is possible to detect departures from secular trends. We particularly focus on how to handle noise in the natural system, which for the Dutch coast is mainly represented by local atmospheric effects and by variability in ocean dynamics in the NE Atlantic.

ACS Style

Riccardo Riva; David Steffelbauer; Jan Kwakkel; Jos Timmermans; Mark Bakker. Detecting non-linear sea-level variations in tide gauge records: a study case along the Dutch coast. 2020, 1 .

AMA Style

Riccardo Riva, David Steffelbauer, Jan Kwakkel, Jos Timmermans, Mark Bakker. Detecting non-linear sea-level variations in tide gauge records: a study case along the Dutch coast. . 2020; ():1.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Riccardo Riva; David Steffelbauer; Jan Kwakkel; Jos Timmermans; Mark Bakker. 2020. "Detecting non-linear sea-level variations in tide gauge records: a study case along the Dutch coast." , no. : 1.

Preprint content
Published: 23 March 2020
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Climate-related inequality can arise from the implementation of adaptation policies. As an example, the dike expansion policy for protecting rice farmers in the Vietnam Mekong Delta in the long run backfires to the small-scale farmers. The prevention of annual flooding reduces the supply of natural sediments, forcing farmers to apply more and more fertilizers to achieve the same yield. While large-scale farmers can afford this, small-scale farmers do not possess the required economics of scale and are thus harmed eventually. Together with climatic and socioeconomic uncertainties, the implementation of new policies can not only exacerbate existing inequalities, but also induce new inequalities. Hence, distributional impacts to affected stakeholders should be assessed in climate change adaptation planning.

In this study, we propose a two-stage approach to assess the distributional impacts of policies in model-based support for adaptation planning. The first stage is intended to explore potential inequality patterns that may emerge due to combination of new policies and the realization of exogenous scenarios. This stage comprises four steps: (i) disaggregation of performance indicators in the model in order to observe distributional impacts, (ii) performance of large-scale simulation experimentation to account for deep uncertainties, (iii) clustering of simulation results to identify distinctive inequality patterns, and (iv) application of scenario discovery tools, in particular classification and regression trees, to identify combinations of policies and uncertainties that lead to a specific inequality pattern.

In the second stage we attempt to asses which policies are morally preferable with respect to the inequality patterns they generate, rather than only descriptively explore the patterns which is the case in the previous stage. To perform a normative evaluation of the distributional impacts, we operationalize five alternative principles of justice: improvement of total welfare (utilitarianism), prioritization of worse-off actors (prioritarianism), reduction of welfare differences across actors (two derivations: absolute inequality and envy measure), and improvement of worst-off actor (Rawlsian difference). The different operationalization of each of these principles forms the so-called social welfare function with which the distributional impacts can be aggregated.

To test this approach, we use an agricultural planning case study in the upper Vietnam Mekong Delta. Specifically, we assess the distributional impacts of alternative adaptation policies in the upper Vietnam Mekong Delta by using an integrated assessment model. We consider six alternative policies as well as uncertainties related to upstream discharge, sediment supply, and land-use change. Through the first stage, we identify six potential inequality patterns among the 23 districts in the study area, as well as the combinations of policies and uncertainties that result in these types of patterns. From applying the second stage we obtain complete rankings of alternative policies, based on their performance with respect to distributional impacts, under different realizations of scenarios. The explorative stage allows policy-makers to identify potential actions to compensate worse-off actors while the normative stage helps them to easily rank alternative policies based on a preferred moral principle.

ACS Style

Bramka Arga Jafino; Jan Kwakkel. A two-stage approach for assessment of distributional impacts in model-based delta planning: exploration of plausible inequality patterns and justice-based evaluation of policies. 2020, 1 .

AMA Style

Bramka Arga Jafino, Jan Kwakkel. A two-stage approach for assessment of distributional impacts in model-based delta planning: exploration of plausible inequality patterns and justice-based evaluation of policies. . 2020; ():1.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Bramka Arga Jafino; Jan Kwakkel. 2020. "A two-stage approach for assessment of distributional impacts in model-based delta planning: exploration of plausible inequality patterns and justice-based evaluation of policies." , no. : 1.

Preprint content
Published: 18 March 2020
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Coastal cities combine intensive socio-economic activity and investments with high exposure to flood hazards. Developing effective strategies to manage flood risk in coastal cities is often a costly and complicated process. In the design of these strategies, engineers rely on computationally demanding flood simulation models and only compare a few strategies due to computational constraints. This limits the efficacy of standard flood simulation models in the crucial conceptual phase of flood risk management. This paper presents the Flood Risk Reduction Evaluation and Screening (FLORES)-model, which specifically aims to provide useful risk information early on in the planning process. FLORES performs numerous quick simulations and compares the impact of many storms, strategies, and future scenarios. This article presents the screening model and demonstrates its merits in a case study for Beira, Mozambique. Our results demonstrate that expansion of the drainage capacity and strengthening of its coastal protection in the southwest, are crucial components of any effective flood risk management strategy for Beira.

ACS Style

Erik C. Van Berchum; Mathijs Van Ledden; Jos S. Timmermans; Jan H. Kwakkel; Sebastiaan N. Jonkman. Rapid flood risk screening model for compound flood events in Beira, Mozambique. 2020, 2020, 1 -18.

AMA Style

Erik C. Van Berchum, Mathijs Van Ledden, Jos S. Timmermans, Jan H. Kwakkel, Sebastiaan N. Jonkman. Rapid flood risk screening model for compound flood events in Beira, Mozambique. . 2020; 2020 ():1-18.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Erik C. Van Berchum; Mathijs Van Ledden; Jos S. Timmermans; Jan H. Kwakkel; Sebastiaan N. Jonkman. 2020. "Rapid flood risk screening model for compound flood events in Beira, Mozambique." 2020, no. : 1-18.

Journal article
Published: 13 March 2020 in Environmental Modelling & Software
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In recent years, a family of approaches has emerged for supporting decision-making on complex environmental problems characterized by deep uncertainties and competing priorities. Many-Objective Robust Decision Making (MORDM), Multi-scenario MORDM and. Many-Objective Robust Optimization (MORO) differ with respect to the degree to which robustness is considered during the search for promising candidate solutions. To assess the efficacy of these three methods, we compare them using three different policy formulations of the lake problem: inter-temporal, planned adaptive, and direct policy search. The more robustness is considered in the search phase, the more robust solutions are also after re-evaluation but also the lower the performance in individual reference scenarios. Adaptive policy formulations positively affect robustness, but do not reduce the price for robustness. Multi-scenario MORDM strikes a pragmatic balance between robustness considerations and optimality in individual scenarios, at reasonable computational costs.

ACS Style

Erin Bartholomew; Jan H. Kwakkel. On considering robustness in the search phase of Robust Decision Making: A comparison of Many-Objective Robust Decision Making, multi-scenario Many-Objective Robust Decision Making, and Many Objective Robust Optimization. Environmental Modelling & Software 2020, 127, 104699 .

AMA Style

Erin Bartholomew, Jan H. Kwakkel. On considering robustness in the search phase of Robust Decision Making: A comparison of Many-Objective Robust Decision Making, multi-scenario Many-Objective Robust Decision Making, and Many Objective Robust Optimization. Environmental Modelling & Software. 2020; 127 ():104699.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Erin Bartholomew; Jan H. Kwakkel. 2020. "On considering robustness in the search phase of Robust Decision Making: A comparison of Many-Objective Robust Decision Making, multi-scenario Many-Objective Robust Decision Making, and Many Objective Robust Optimization." Environmental Modelling & Software 127, no. : 104699.

Opinion
Published: 04 March 2020 in WIREs Climate Change
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Even though real options analysis (ROA) is often thought as the best tool available for evaluating flexible strategies, there are profound problems with the assumptions underpinning ROA rendering it unsuitable for use in supporting planning and decision‐making on climate adaptation. In the face of dynamic and deep uncertainty about the future, flexible strategies which can be adapted in response to how the uncertainty is resolving are attractive. Traditional cost‐benefit analysis cannot account for the value created through optionality. ROA sets out to amend this. There are however several profound problems with how ROA tries to do this. It is typically not clear what is the baseline plan, without options, against which value is to be estimated. Different baselines significantly change option value. Even if option value can unequivocally be established for a given scenario, ROA relies on expected values over a set of scenarios. First, this requires assigning weights, or probabilities, to scenarios. Given the long‐time horizon involved in climate adaptation, these probabilities are meaningless. Second, the expected value over a set of scenarios need not obtain in any single scenario and is thus not a meaningful summary of option value. This article is categorized under: Climate Economics > Iterative Risk‐Management Policy Portfolios

ACS Style

Jan H. Kwakkel. Is real options analysis fit for purpose in supporting climate adaptation planning and decision‐making? WIREs Climate Change 2020, 11, 1 .

AMA Style

Jan H. Kwakkel. Is real options analysis fit for purpose in supporting climate adaptation planning and decision‐making? WIREs Climate Change. 2020; 11 (3):1.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Jan H. Kwakkel. 2020. "Is real options analysis fit for purpose in supporting climate adaptation planning and decision‐making?" WIREs Climate Change 11, no. 3: 1.

Articles
Published: 18 December 2019 in Transport Reviews
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Transport network criticality analysis aims at ranking transport infrastructure elements based on their contribution to the performance of the overall infrastructure network. Despite the wide variety of transport network criticality metrics, little guidance is available on selecting metrics that are fit for the specific purpose of a study. To address this gap, this study reviews, evaluates and compares seventeen criticality metrics. First, we conceptually evaluate these metrics in terms of the functionality of the transport system that the metrics try to represent (either maintaining connectivity, reducing travel cost, or improving accessibility), the underlying ethical principles (either utilitarianism or egalitarianism), and the spatial aggregation considered by the metrics (either network-wide or localised). Next, we empirically compare the metrics by calculating them for eight transport networks. We define the empirical similarity between two metrics as the degree to which they yield similar rankings of infrastructure elements. Pairs of metrics that have high empirical similarity highlight the same set of transport infrastructure elements as critical. We find that empirical similarity is partly dependent on the network’s topology. We also observe that metrics that are conceptually similar do not necessarily have high empirical similarity. Based on the insights from the conceptual and empirical comparison, we propose a five-step guideline for transport authorities and analysts to identify the set of criticality metrics to use which best aligns with the nature of their policy questions.

ACS Style

Bramka Arga Jafino; Jan Kwakkel; Alexander Verbraeck. Transport network criticality metrics: a comparative analysis and a guideline for selection. Transport Reviews 2019, 40, 241 -264.

AMA Style

Bramka Arga Jafino, Jan Kwakkel, Alexander Verbraeck. Transport network criticality metrics: a comparative analysis and a guideline for selection. Transport Reviews. 2019; 40 (2):241-264.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Bramka Arga Jafino; Jan Kwakkel; Alexander Verbraeck. 2019. "Transport network criticality metrics: a comparative analysis and a guideline for selection." Transport Reviews 40, no. 2: 241-264.

Journal article
Published: 29 November 2019 in Water
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Rivers typically flow through multiple flood-protected areas which are clearly interconnected, as risk reduction measures taken at one area, e.g., heightening dikes or building flood storage areas, affect risk elsewhere. We call these interconnections ‘hydraulic interactions’. The current approach to flood risk management, however, neglects hydraulic interactions for two reasons: They are uncertain and, furthermore, considering them would require the design of policies not only striving for risk reduction, but also accounting for risk transfers across flood-protected areas. In the present paper, we compare the performance of policies identified according to the current approach with those of two alternative formulations: One acknowledging hydraulic interactions and the other also including an additional decision criterion to account for equity in risk distribution across flood-protected areas. Optimal policies are first identified under deterministic hydraulic interactions, and, next, they are stress-tested under uncertainty. We found that the current approach leads to a false sense of equal risk distribution. It does, however, perform efficiently when a risk-averse approach towards uncertain hydraulic interactions is taken. Accounting for hydraulic interactions in the design of policies, instead, increases efficiency and both efficiency and equity when hydraulic interactions are considered deterministically and as uncertain, respectively.

ACS Style

Alessio Ciullo; Karin M. De Bruijn; Jan H. Kwakkel; Frans Klijn. Systemic Flood Risk Management: The Challenge of Accounting for Hydraulic Interactions. Water 2019, 11, 2530 .

AMA Style

Alessio Ciullo, Karin M. De Bruijn, Jan H. Kwakkel, Frans Klijn. Systemic Flood Risk Management: The Challenge of Accounting for Hydraulic Interactions. Water. 2019; 11 (12):2530.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Alessio Ciullo; Karin M. De Bruijn; Jan H. Kwakkel; Frans Klijn. 2019. "Systemic Flood Risk Management: The Challenge of Accounting for Hydraulic Interactions." Water 11, no. 12: 2530.

Chapter
Published: 05 April 2019 in Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty
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A wide variety of tools and approaches for supporting the making of decisions under deep uncertainty have been put forward, but we lack a comparative overview. This chapter presents a taxonomy of approaches and tools for supporting decisionmaking under deep uncertainty. The taxonomy is based on a decomposition of the tools and approaches into a set of common building blocks. Analysts can use the taxonomy for designing context-specific approaches to support DMDU.

ACS Style

Jan H. Kwakkel; Marjolijn Haasnoot. Supporting DMDU: A Taxonomy of Approaches and Tools. Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty 2019, 355 -374.

AMA Style

Jan H. Kwakkel, Marjolijn Haasnoot. Supporting DMDU: A Taxonomy of Approaches and Tools. Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty. 2019; ():355-374.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Jan H. Kwakkel; Marjolijn Haasnoot. 2019. "Supporting DMDU: A Taxonomy of Approaches and Tools." Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty , no. : 355-374.