Insight into how environmental change determines the production and distribution of cyanobacterial toxins is necessary for risk assessment. Management guidelines currently focus on hepatotoxins (microcystins). Increasing attention is given to other classes, such as neurotoxins (e.g., anatoxin-a) and cytotoxins (e.g., cylindrospermopsin) due to their potency. Most studies examine the relationship between individual toxin variants and environmental factors, such as nutrients, temperature and light. In summer 2015, we collected samples across Europe to investigate the effect of nutrient and temperature gradients on the variability of toxin production at a continental scale. Direct and indirect effects of temperature were the main drivers of the spatial distribution in the toxins produced by the cyanobacterial community, the toxin concentrations and toxin quota. Generalized linear models showed that a Toxin Diversity Index (TDI) increased with latitude, while it decreased with water stability. Increases in TDI were explained through a significant increase in toxin variants such as MC-YR, anatoxin and cylindrospermopsin, accompanied by a decreasing presence of MC-LR. While global warming continues, the direct and indirect effects of increased lake temperatures will drive changes in the distribution of cyanobacterial toxins in Europe, potentially promoting selection of a few highly toxic species or strains.

Under ongoing climate change and increasing anthropogenic activity, which continuously challenge ecosystem resilience, an in-depth understanding of ecological processes is urgently needed. Lakes, as providers of numerous ecosystem services, face multiple stressors that threaten their functioning. Harmful cyanobacterial blooms are a persistent problem resulting from nutrient pollution and climate-change induced stressors, like poor transparency, increased water temperature and enhanced stratification. Consistency in data collection and analysis methods is necessary to achieve fully comparable datasets and for statistical validity, avoiding issues linked to disparate data sources. The European Multi Lake Survey (EMLS) in summer 2015 was an initiative among scientists from 27 countries to collect and analyse lake physical, chemical and biological variables in a fully standardized manner. This database includesin-situlake variables along with nutrient, pigment and cyanotoxin data of 369 lakes in Europe, which were centrally analysed in dedicated laboratories. Publishing the EMLS methods and dataset might inspire similar initiatives to study across large geographic areas that will contribute to better understanding lake responses in a changing environment.

Global warming, paired with eutrophication processes, is shifting phytoplankton communities towards the dominance of bloom-forming and potentially toxic cyanobacteria. The ecosystems of shallow lakes are especially vulnerable to these changes. Traditional monitoring via microscopy is not able to quantify the dynamics of toxin-producing cyanobacteria on a proper spatio-temporal scale. Molecular tools are highly sensitive and can be useful as an early warning tool for lake managers. We quantified the potential microcystin (MC) producers in Lake Peipsi using microscopy and quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) and analysed the relationship between the abundance of the mcyE genes, MC concentration, MC variants and toxin quota per mcyE gene. We also linked environmental factors to the cyanobacteria community composition. In Lake Peipsi, we found rather moderate MC concentrations, but microcystins and microcystin-producing cyanobacteria were widespread across the lake. Nitrate (NO₃⁻) was a main driver behind the cyanobacterial community at the beginning of the growing season, while in late summer it was primarily associated with the soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) concentration. A positive relationship was found between the MC quota per mcyE gene and water temperature. The most abundant variant—MC-RR—was associated with MC quota per mcyE gene, while other MC variants did not show any significant impact.

Snapshot Surveys for Lake Monitoring, More Than a Shot in the Dark