Insight into how environmental change determines the production and distribution of cyanobacterial toxins is necessary for risk assessment. Management guidelines currently focus on hepatotoxins (microcystins). Increasing attention is given to other classes, such as neurotoxins (e.g., anatoxin-a) and cytotoxins (e.g., cylindrospermopsin) due to their potency. Most studies examine the relationship between individual toxin variants and environmental factors, such as nutrients, temperature and light. In summer 2015, we collected samples across Europe to investigate the effect of nutrient and temperature gradients on the variability of toxin production at a continental scale. Direct and indirect effects of temperature were the main drivers of the spatial distribution in the toxins produced by the cyanobacterial community, the toxin concentrations and toxin quota. Generalized linear models showed that a Toxin Diversity Index (TDI) increased with latitude, while it decreased with water stability. Increases in TDI were explained through a significant increase in toxin variants such as MC-YR, anatoxin and cylindrospermopsin, accompanied by a decreasing presence of MC-LR. While global warming continues, the direct and indirect effects of increased lake temperatures will drive changes in the distribution of cyanobacterial toxins in Europe, potentially promoting selection of a few highly toxic species or strains.

Besides the most prominent peptide toxin, microcystin, the cyanobacteriaMicrocystisspp. have been shown to produce a large variety of other bioactive oligopeptides. We investigated for the first time the oligopeptide diversity within a naturalMicrocystispopulation by analyzing single colonies directly with matrix-assisted laser desorption ionization–time of flight mass spectrometry (MALDI-TOF MS). The results demonstrate a high diversity of known cyanobacterial peptides such as microcystins, anabaenopeptins, microginins, aeruginosins, and cyanopeptolins, but also many unknown substances in theMicrocystiscolonies. Oligopeptide patterns were mostly related to specificMicrocystistaxa.Microcystis aeruginosa(Kütz.) Kütz. colonies contained mainly microcystins, occasionally accompanied by aeruginosins. In contrast, microcystins were not detected inMicrocystis ichthyoblabeKütz.; instead, colonies of this species contained anabaenopeptins and/or microginins or unknown peptides. Within a third group,Microcystis wesenbergii(Kom.) Kom. in Kondr., chiefly a cyanopeptolin and an unknown peptide were found. Similar patterns, however, were also found in colonies which could not be identified to species level. The significance of oligopeptides as a chemotaxonomic tool within the genusMicrocystisis discussed. It could be demonstrated that the typing of single colonies by MALDI-TOF MS may be a valuable tool for ecological studies of the genusMicrocystisas well as in early warning of toxic cyanobacterial blooms.

Concern is widely being published that the occurrence of toxic cyanobacteria is increasing in consequence of climate change and eutrophication, substantially threatening human health. Here, we review evidence and pertinent publications to explore in which types of waterbodies climate change is likely to exacerbate cyanobacterial blooms; whether controlling blooms and toxin concentrations requires a balanced approach of reducing not only the concentrations of phosphorus (P) but also those of nitrogen (N); how trophic and climatic changes affect health risks caused by toxic cyanobacteria. We propose the following for further discussion: (i) Climate change is likely to promote blooms in some waterbodies—not in those with low concentrations of P or N stringently limiting biomass, and more so in shallow than in stratified waterbodies. Particularly in the latter, it can work both ways—rendering conditions for cyanobacterial proliferation more favourable or less favourable. (ii) While N emissions to the environment need to be reduced for a number of reasons, controlling blooms can definitely be successful by reducing only P, provided concentrations of P can be brought down to levels sufficiently low to stringently limit biomass. Not the N:P ratio, but the absolute concentration of the limiting nutrient determines the maximum possible biomass of phytoplankton and thus of cyanobacteria. The absolute concentrations of N or P show which of the two nutrients is currently limiting biomass. N can be the nutrient of choice to reduce if achieving sufficiently low concentrations has chances of success. (iii) Where trophic and climate change cause longer, stronger and more frequent blooms, they increase risks of exposure, and health risks depend on the amount by which concentrations exceed those of current WHO cyanotoxin guideline values for the respective exposure situation. Where trophic change reduces phytoplankton biomass in the epilimnion, thus increasing transparency, cyanobacterial species composition may shift to those that reside on benthic surfaces or in the metalimnion, changing risks of exposure. We conclude that studying how environmental changes affect the genotype composition of cyanobacterial populations is a relatively new and exciting research field, holding promises for understanding the biological function of the wide range of metabolites found in cyanobacteria, of which only a small fraction is toxic to humans. Overall, management needs case-by-case assessments focusing on the impacts of environmental change on the respective waterbody, rather than generalisations.

Increased external nutrient loads of anthropogenic origin, especially those of phosphorus (P), were one of the major causes of eutrophication during the first half of the twentieth century in Europe. They led to deterioration of lake ecosystems, particularly including noxious blooms of (potentially toxic) cyanobacteria. From the 1970–1980s, strategies to decrease the phosphorus loads from sewage were increasingly implemented, among them are the ban of phosphates in detergents, the expansion of sewer systems and improvement in wastewater treatment to remove nutrients. Case studies of eight lakes, whose response to point source reduction of phosphorus was observed over decades, show that a pronounced reduction of the phosphorus load from point sources can be achieved either by the diversion of inflows carrying high loads, by upgraded sewage treatment, or by phosphorus precipitation in the major tributary directly before its inflow into the water body. Outcomes demonstrate that in order to effectively control cyanobacterial blooms, the measures taken need to reduce in-lake concentrations of total phosphorus below 20–50 µg L⁻¹, with this threshold varying somewhat between lakes depending in particular on hydromorphological and biological conditions. Whether and when load reduction succeeds in controlling cyanobacteria depends primarily on the load remaining after remediation and on the water residence time.