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It is still possible to comply with the Paris Climate Agreement to maintain a global temperature ‘well below +2.0 °C’ above pre-industrial levels. We present two global non-overshoot pathways (+2.0 °C and +1.5 °C) with regional decarbonization targets for the four primary energy sectors—power, heating, transportation, and industry—in 5-year steps to 2050. We use normative scenarios to illustrate the effects of efficiency measures and renewable energy use, describe the roles of increased electrification of the final energy demand and synthetic fuels, and quantify the resulting electricity load increases for 72 sub-regions. Non-energy scenarios include a phase-out of net emissions from agriculture, forestry, and other land uses, reductions in non-carbon greenhouse gases, and land restoration to scale up atmospheric CO2 removal, estimated at −377 Gt CO2 to 2100. An estimate of the COVID-19 effects on the global energy demand is included and a sensitivity analysis describes the impacts if implementation is delayed by 5, 7, or 10 years, which would significantly reduce the likelihood of achieving the 1.5 °C goal. The analysis applies a model network consisting of energy system, power system, transport, land-use, and climate models.
Sven Teske; Thomas Pregger; Sonja Simon; Tobias Naegler; Johannes Pagenkopf; Özcan Deniz; Bent Van Den Adel; Kate Dooley; Malte Meinshausen. It Is Still Possible to Achieve the Paris Climate Agreement: Regional, Sectoral, and Land-Use Pathways. Energies 2021, 14, 2103 .
AMA StyleSven Teske, Thomas Pregger, Sonja Simon, Tobias Naegler, Johannes Pagenkopf, Özcan Deniz, Bent Van Den Adel, Kate Dooley, Malte Meinshausen. It Is Still Possible to Achieve the Paris Climate Agreement: Regional, Sectoral, and Land-Use Pathways. Energies. 2021; 14 (8):2103.
Chicago/Turabian StyleSven Teske; Thomas Pregger; Sonja Simon; Tobias Naegler; Johannes Pagenkopf; Özcan Deniz; Bent Van Den Adel; Kate Dooley; Malte Meinshausen. 2021. "It Is Still Possible to Achieve the Paris Climate Agreement: Regional, Sectoral, and Land-Use Pathways." Energies 14, no. 8: 2103.
Energy scenarios represent a prominent tool to support energy system transitions towards sustainability. In order to better fulfil this role, two elements are widely missing in previous work on designing, analyzing, and using scenarios: First, a more systematic integration of social and socio-technical characteristics of energy systems in scenario design, and, second, a method to apply an accordingly enhanced set of indicators in scenario assessment. In this article, an integrative scenario assessment methodology is introduced that combines these two requirements. It consists of: (i) A model-based scenario analysis using techno-economic and ecological indicators; (ii) a non-model-based analysis using socio-technical indicators; (iii) an assessment of scenario performances with respect to pre-determined indicator targets; (iv) a normalization method to make the two types of results (model-based and non-model-based) comparable; (v) an approach to classify results to facilitate structured interpretation. The combination of these elements represents the added-value of this methodology. It is illustrated for selected indicators, and exemplary results are presented. Methodological challenges and remaining questions, e.g., regarding the analysis of non-model-based indicators, resource requirements, or the robustness of the methodology are pointed out and discussed. We consider this integrative methodology being a substantial improvement of previous scenario assessment methodologies.
Jürgen Kopfmüller; Wolfgang Weimer-Jehle; Tobias Naegler; Jens Buchgeister; Klaus-Rainer Bräutigam; Volker Stelzer. Integrative Scenario Assessment as a Tool to Support Decisions in Energy Transition. Energies 2021, 14, 1580 .
AMA StyleJürgen Kopfmüller, Wolfgang Weimer-Jehle, Tobias Naegler, Jens Buchgeister, Klaus-Rainer Bräutigam, Volker Stelzer. Integrative Scenario Assessment as a Tool to Support Decisions in Energy Transition. Energies. 2021; 14 (6):1580.
Chicago/Turabian StyleJürgen Kopfmüller; Wolfgang Weimer-Jehle; Tobias Naegler; Jens Buchgeister; Klaus-Rainer Bräutigam; Volker Stelzer. 2021. "Integrative Scenario Assessment as a Tool to Support Decisions in Energy Transition." Energies 14, no. 6: 1580.
We integrate life cycle indicators for various technologies of an energy system model with high spatiotemporal detail and a focus on Europe and North Africa. Using multi-objective optimization, we calculate a pareto front that allows us to assess the trade-offs between system costs and life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of future power systems. Furthermore, we perform environmental ex-post assessments of selected solutions using a broad set of life cycle impact categories. In a system with the least life cycle GHG emissions, the costs would increase by ~63%, thereby reducing life cycle GHG emissions by ~82% compared to the cost-optimal solution. Power systems mitigating a substantial part of life cycle GHG emissions with small increases in system costs show a trend towards a deployment of wind onshore, electricity grid and a decline in photovoltaic plants and Li-ion storage. Further reductions are achieved by the deployment of concentrated solar power, wind offshore and nuclear power but lead to considerably higher costs compared to the cost-optimal solution. Power systems that mitigate life cycle GHG emissions also perform better for most impact categories but have higher ionizing radiation, water use and increased fossil fuel demand driven by nuclear power. This study shows that it is crucial to consider upstream GHG emissions in future assessments, as they represent an inheritable part of total emissions in ambitious energy scenarios that, so far, mainly aim to reduce direct CO2 emissions.
Tobias Junne; Karl-Kiên Cao; Kim Miskiw; Heidi Hottenroth; Tobias Naegler. Considering Life Cycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Power System Expansion Planning for Europe and North Africa Using Multi-Objective Optimization. Energies 2021, 14, 1301 .
AMA StyleTobias Junne, Karl-Kiên Cao, Kim Miskiw, Heidi Hottenroth, Tobias Naegler. Considering Life Cycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Power System Expansion Planning for Europe and North Africa Using Multi-Objective Optimization. Energies. 2021; 14 (5):1301.
Chicago/Turabian StyleTobias Junne; Karl-Kiên Cao; Kim Miskiw; Heidi Hottenroth; Tobias Naegler. 2021. "Considering Life Cycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Power System Expansion Planning for Europe and North Africa Using Multi-Objective Optimization." Energies 14, no. 5: 1301.
In order to analyse long-term transformation pathways, energy system models generally focus on economical and technical characteristics. However, these models usually do not consider sustainability aspects such as environmental impacts. In contrast, life cycle assessment enables an extensive estimate of those impacts. Due to these complementary characteristics, the combination of energy system models and life cycle assessment thus allows comprehensive environmental sustainability assessments of technically and economically feasible energy system transformation pathways. We introduce FRITS, a FRamework for the assessment of environmental Impacts of Transformation Scenarios. FRITS links bottom-up energy system models with life cycle impact assessment indicators and quantifies the environmental impacts of transformation strategies of the entire energy system (power, heat, transport) over the transition period. We apply the framework to conduct an environmental assessment of multi-sectoral energy scenarios for Germany. Here, a ‘Target’ scenario reaching 80% reduction of energy-related direct CO2 emissions is compared with a ‘Reference’ scenario describing a less ambitious transformation pathway. The results show that compared to 2015 and the ‘Reference’ scenario, the ‘Target’ scenario performs better for most life cycle impact assessment indicators. However, the impacts of resource consumption and land use increase for the ‘Target’ scenario. These impacts are mainly caused by road passenger transport and biomass conversion.
Tobias Junne; Sonja Simon; Jens Buchgeister; Maximilian Saiger; Manuel Baumann; Martina Haase; Christina Wulf; Tobias Naegler. Environmental Sustainability Assessment of Multi-Sectoral Energy Transformation Pathways: Methodological Approach and Case Study for Germany. Sustainability 2020, 12, 8225 .
AMA StyleTobias Junne, Sonja Simon, Jens Buchgeister, Maximilian Saiger, Manuel Baumann, Martina Haase, Christina Wulf, Tobias Naegler. Environmental Sustainability Assessment of Multi-Sectoral Energy Transformation Pathways: Methodological Approach and Case Study for Germany. Sustainability. 2020; 12 (19):8225.
Chicago/Turabian StyleTobias Junne; Sonja Simon; Jens Buchgeister; Maximilian Saiger; Manuel Baumann; Martina Haase; Christina Wulf; Tobias Naegler. 2020. "Environmental Sustainability Assessment of Multi-Sectoral Energy Transformation Pathways: Methodological Approach and Case Study for Germany." Sustainability 12, no. 19: 8225.
We assess the requirements for neodymium, dysprosium, lithium, and cobalt in power generation, storage and transport technologies until 2050 under six global energy scenarios. We consider plausible developments in the subtechnology markets for lithium-ion batteries, wind power, and electric motors for road transport. Moreover, we include the uncertainties regarding the specific material content of these subtechnologies and the reserve and resource estimates. Furthermore, we consider the development of the material demand in non-energy sectors. The results show that the material requirements increase with the degree of ambition of the scenarios. The maximum annual primary material demand of the scenarios exceeds current extraction volumes by a factor of 3 to 9 (Nd), 7 to 35 (Dy), 12 to 143 (Li), and 2 to 22 (Co). The ratios of cumulative primary material demand to average reserve estimates range from 0.1 to 0.3 (Nd), 0.3 to 1.1 (Dy), 0.7 to 6.5 (Li), and 0.8 to 5.5 (Co). Average resource estimates of Li and Co are exceeded by up to a factor of 2.1 and 1.7, respectively. We recommend that future scenario studies on the energy system transformation consider the influence of possible material bottlenecks on technology prices and substitution technology options.
Tobias Junne; Niklas Wulff; Christian Breyer; Tobias Naegler. Critical materials in global low-carbon energy scenarios: The case for neodymium, dysprosium, lithium, and cobalt. Energy 2020, 211, 118532 .
AMA StyleTobias Junne, Niklas Wulff, Christian Breyer, Tobias Naegler. Critical materials in global low-carbon energy scenarios: The case for neodymium, dysprosium, lithium, and cobalt. Energy. 2020; 211 ():118532.
Chicago/Turabian StyleTobias Junne; Niklas Wulff; Christian Breyer; Tobias Naegler. 2020. "Critical materials in global low-carbon energy scenarios: The case for neodymium, dysprosium, lithium, and cobalt." Energy 211, no. : 118532.
Results for the 5.0 °C, 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C scenarios for ten world regions in regard to energy-related carbon-dioxide emissions, final-, primary-, transport- and heating demand and the deployment of various supply technologies to meet the demand. Furthermore, the electricity demand and generation scenarios are provided. The key results of a power sector analysis which simulates further electricity supply with high shares of solar- and wind power in one hour steps is provided. The ten world regions are divided into eight sub-regions and the expected development of loads, capacity-factors for various power plant types and storage demands are provided. This chapter contains more than 100 figures and tables.
Sven Teske; Thomas Pregger; Tobias Naegler; Sonja Simon; Johannes Pagenkopf; Bent Van Den Adel; Özcan Deniz. Energy Scenario Results. Achieving the Paris Climate Agreement Goals 2019, 175 -401.
AMA StyleSven Teske, Thomas Pregger, Tobias Naegler, Sonja Simon, Johannes Pagenkopf, Bent Van Den Adel, Özcan Deniz. Energy Scenario Results. Achieving the Paris Climate Agreement Goals. 2019; ():175-401.
Chicago/Turabian StyleSven Teske; Thomas Pregger; Tobias Naegler; Sonja Simon; Johannes Pagenkopf; Bent Van Den Adel; Özcan Deniz. 2019. "Energy Scenario Results." Achieving the Paris Climate Agreement Goals , no. : 175-401.
Tobias Naegler; Sonja Simon. Potential for residual load balancing of a frozen food manufacturing plant – A heuristic approach. Sustainable Energy Technologies and Assessments 2018, 28, 43 -53.
AMA StyleTobias Naegler, Sonja Simon. Potential for residual load balancing of a frozen food manufacturing plant – A heuristic approach. Sustainable Energy Technologies and Assessments. 2018; 28 ():43-53.
Chicago/Turabian StyleTobias Naegler; Sonja Simon. 2018. "Potential for residual load balancing of a frozen food manufacturing plant – A heuristic approach." Sustainable Energy Technologies and Assessments 28, no. : 43-53.
Newly industrialized countries face major challenges to comply with the Paris Treaty targets as economic growth and prosperity lead to increasing energy demand. Our paper analyses technological and structural options in terms of energy efficiency and renewable energies for a massive reduction of energy-related CO2 emissions in Latin America. Brazil and Mexico share similar growth prospects but differ significantly with respect to renewable energy potentials. We identify, how this leads to different transformation pathways. By applying an energy system balancing model we develop normative energy system transformation scenarios across the heating, power, and mobility sectors, including their potential interactions. The normative scenarios rely on three basic strategies for both countries: (1) strong exploitation of efficiency potentials; (2) tapping the renewable energy potentials; and (3) sector coupling and electrification of heat supply and transport. Despite economic growth, significant CO2 emission reductions could be achieved in Brazil from 440 Gt/a (2.2 t/cap) in 2012 to 0.4 Gt (2 kg/cap) in 2050 and in Mexico from 400 Gt/a (3.3 t/cap) to 80 Gt (0.5 t/cap). Our study shows the gap between existing policy and scenarios and our strategies, which provide an economically feasible way to comply with the Paris treaty targets.
Sonja Simon; Tobias Naegler; Hans Christian Gils. Transformation towards a Renewable Energy System in Brazil and Mexico—Technological and Structural Options for Latin America. Energies 2018, 11, 907 .
AMA StyleSonja Simon, Tobias Naegler, Hans Christian Gils. Transformation towards a Renewable Energy System in Brazil and Mexico—Technological and Structural Options for Latin America. Energies. 2018; 11 (4):907.
Chicago/Turabian StyleSonja Simon; Tobias Naegler; Hans Christian Gils. 2018. "Transformation towards a Renewable Energy System in Brazil and Mexico—Technological and Structural Options for Latin America." Energies 11, no. 4: 907.
Sven Teske; Thomas Pregger; Sonja Simon; Tobias Naegler. High renewable energy penetration scenarios and their implications for urban energy and transport systems. Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability 2018, 30, 89 -102.
AMA StyleSven Teske, Thomas Pregger, Sonja Simon, Tobias Naegler. High renewable energy penetration scenarios and their implications for urban energy and transport systems. Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability. 2018; 30 ():89-102.
Chicago/Turabian StyleSven Teske; Thomas Pregger; Sonja Simon; Tobias Naegler. 2018. "High renewable energy penetration scenarios and their implications for urban energy and transport systems." Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability 30, no. : 89-102.
Der Band vereint die wichtigsten Forschungsergebnisse der Helmholtz-Allianz ENERGY-TRANS zur Energiewende aus dem Blickwinkel unterschiedlicher Fachbereiche: u.a. der Soziologie, der Psychologie, der Politikwissenschaft und der Wirtschaftswissenschaften. This book collates the most significant findings of the research into changes in energy policy from the perspectives of different fields, including sociology, psychology, politics and economics, which has been conducted by the Helmholtz-Allianz ENERGY-TRANS group.
Wolfgang Weimer-Jehle; Sigrid Prehofer; Stefan Vögele; Jens Buchgeister; Wolfgang Hauser; Jürgen Kopfmüller; Tobias Naegler; Witold-Roger Poganietz; Thomas Pregger; Christine Rösch; Yvonne Scholz. Kontextszenarien. Ein Konzept zur Behandlung von Kontextunsicherheit und Kontextkomplexität bei der Entwicklung von Energieszenarien und seine Anwendung in der Helmholtz-Allianz ENERGY-TRANS. Die Energiewende verstehen - orientieren - gestalten 2017, 255 -294.
AMA StyleWolfgang Weimer-Jehle, Sigrid Prehofer, Stefan Vögele, Jens Buchgeister, Wolfgang Hauser, Jürgen Kopfmüller, Tobias Naegler, Witold-Roger Poganietz, Thomas Pregger, Christine Rösch, Yvonne Scholz. Kontextszenarien. Ein Konzept zur Behandlung von Kontextunsicherheit und Kontextkomplexität bei der Entwicklung von Energieszenarien und seine Anwendung in der Helmholtz-Allianz ENERGY-TRANS. Die Energiewende verstehen - orientieren - gestalten. 2017; ():255-294.
Chicago/Turabian StyleWolfgang Weimer-Jehle; Sigrid Prehofer; Stefan Vögele; Jens Buchgeister; Wolfgang Hauser; Jürgen Kopfmüller; Tobias Naegler; Witold-Roger Poganietz; Thomas Pregger; Christine Rösch; Yvonne Scholz. 2017. "Kontextszenarien. Ein Konzept zur Behandlung von Kontextunsicherheit und Kontextkomplexität bei der Entwicklung von Energieszenarien und seine Anwendung in der Helmholtz-Allianz ENERGY-TRANS." Die Energiewende verstehen - orientieren - gestalten , no. : 255-294.
Model-based energy scenarios are a widely used tool for supporting economic and political decision makers. The results of energy modeling and the conclusions deduced therefrom, however, depend on the model input data derived from framework assumptions about future developments in the embedding society, which are deeply uncertain in the long term. The challenge to deal with this ‘context uncertainty’ in a systematic and comprehensive manner has only recently started to attract intensified attention in energy research; the search for appropriate methods is ongoing. This paper proposes a new concept for the construction of socio-technical energy scenarios, which combines familiar environmental modeling approaches with new developments in qualitative scenario methodology, and demonstrates the possible application of the concept in model-based energy scenario construction.
Wolfgang Weimer-Jehle; Jens Buchgeister; Wolfgang Hauser; Hannah Kosow; Tobias Naegler; Witold-Roger Poganietz; Thomas Pregger; Sigrid Prehofer; Andreas von Recklinghausen; Jens Schippl; Stefan Vögele. Context scenarios and their usage for the construction of socio-technical energy scenarios. Energy 2016, 111, 956 -970.
AMA StyleWolfgang Weimer-Jehle, Jens Buchgeister, Wolfgang Hauser, Hannah Kosow, Tobias Naegler, Witold-Roger Poganietz, Thomas Pregger, Sigrid Prehofer, Andreas von Recklinghausen, Jens Schippl, Stefan Vögele. Context scenarios and their usage for the construction of socio-technical energy scenarios. Energy. 2016; 111 ():956-970.
Chicago/Turabian StyleWolfgang Weimer-Jehle; Jens Buchgeister; Wolfgang Hauser; Hannah Kosow; Tobias Naegler; Witold-Roger Poganietz; Thomas Pregger; Sigrid Prehofer; Andreas von Recklinghausen; Jens Schippl; Stefan Vögele. 2016. "Context scenarios and their usage for the construction of socio-technical energy scenarios." Energy 111, no. : 956-970.
We present the first comprehensive estimate of the final energy demand for heat in all EU28 member states for the reference year 2012, differentiated by temperature levels, comparing two different approaches. Two different calculation approaches based on different data sets yielded estimates of the total final energy demand for heat in the EU28 of 8150 PJ and 8518 PJ in 2012, respectively. Approach 1 distinguishes between three different process heat (PH) temperature levels and results in final energy demand for heat 400°C: 3859 PJ. The second approach distinguishes between low temperature space heat and hot water (1000°C: 2865 PJ. The high share of high‐temperature heat illustrates the limits to the potential decarbonisation of industrial thermal processes with renewable energy sources such as (non‐concentrating) solar thermal, geothermal or environmental heat. Therefore specific information on required temperature levels is of the essence. This, in turn, points out the relevance of renewable electricity and synthetic fuels based on renewable power for a significant reduction of CO2 emissions from the industry sector in Europe. Considering current data quality, it is recommended to develop a consistent, comprehensive methodology to significantly improve the data basis on industrial heat demand. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Tobias Naegler; Sonja Simon; Martin Thomas Klein; Hans Christian Gils. Quantification of the European industrial heat demand by branch and temperature level. International Journal of Energy Research 2015, 39, 2019 -2030.
AMA StyleTobias Naegler, Sonja Simon, Martin Thomas Klein, Hans Christian Gils. Quantification of the European industrial heat demand by branch and temperature level. International Journal of Energy Research. 2015; 39 (15):2019-2030.
Chicago/Turabian StyleTobias Naegler; Sonja Simon; Martin Thomas Klein; Hans Christian Gils. 2015. "Quantification of the European industrial heat demand by branch and temperature level." International Journal of Energy Research 39, no. 15: 2019-2030.
The transformation of the energy supply in Germany (the “Energiewende”) as described in the German Federal government’s ‘Energy Concept’ (Energiekonzept, 2010) is based on a political consensus about long-term targets for energy efficiency and renewable energies. The aim of this article is to present a consistent scenario for this transformation process reflecting the long-term implementation of renewable energies and the possible future structure of the German energy system as a whole. Structural and economic effects of this development are derived and discussed. It summarizes results of scenario analyses done by the department of Systems Analysis and Technology Assessment of the German Aerospace Center as part of a three-year research project for the German Federal Ministry for the Environment. The underlying study provides a detailed data base reflecting a long-term roadmap for the energy system transformation in Germany. The scenarios show that the policy targets are consistent and can be achieved, if appropriate policy measures are to be implemented. The economic analysis shows the amount of investments and the strong market dynamics required for new generation technologies but also the huge economic benefits that can result from this development path in terms of fuel cost savings and lower fuel imports.
Thomas Pregger; Joachim Nitsch; Tobias Naegler. Long-term scenarios and strategies for the deployment of renewable energies in Germany. Energy Policy 2013, 59, 350 -360.
AMA StyleThomas Pregger, Joachim Nitsch, Tobias Naegler. Long-term scenarios and strategies for the deployment of renewable energies in Germany. Energy Policy. 2013; 59 ():350-360.
Chicago/Turabian StyleThomas Pregger; Joachim Nitsch; Tobias Naegler. 2013. "Long-term scenarios and strategies for the deployment of renewable energies in Germany." Energy Policy 59, no. : 350-360.
The Energy [R]evolution 2010 scenario is an update of the Energy [R]evolution scenarios published in 2007 and 2008. It takes up recent trends in global energy demand and production and analyses to which extent this affects chances for achieving climate protection targets. The main target is to reduce global CO2 emissions to 3.7 Gt/a in 2050, thus limiting global average temperature increase to below 2°C and preventing dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. A ten-region energy system model is used for simulating global energy supply strategies. A review of sector and region specific energy efficiency measures resulted in the specification of a global energy demand scenario incorporating strong energy efficiency measures. The corresponding supply scenario has been developed in an iterative process in close cooperation with stakeholders and regional counterparts from academia, NGOs and the renewable energy industry. The Energy [R]evolution scenario shows that renewable energy can provide more than 80% of the world’s energy needs by 2050. Developing countries can virtually stabilise their CO2 emissions by 2025 and reduce afterwards, whilst at the same time increasing energy consumption due to economic growth. OECD countries will be able to reduce their emissions by up to 90% by 2050. However, without a comprehensive energy efficiency implementation strategy across all sectors, the renewable energy development alone will not be enough to make these drastic emissions cuts.
Sven Teske; Thomas Pregger; Sonja Simon; Tobias Naegler; Wina Crijns-Graus; Christine Lins. Energy [R]evolution 2010—a sustainable world energy outlook. Energy Efficiency 2010, 4, 409 -433.
AMA StyleSven Teske, Thomas Pregger, Sonja Simon, Tobias Naegler, Wina Crijns-Graus, Christine Lins. Energy [R]evolution 2010—a sustainable world energy outlook. Energy Efficiency. 2010; 4 (3):409-433.
Chicago/Turabian StyleSven Teske; Thomas Pregger; Sonja Simon; Tobias Naegler; Wina Crijns-Graus; Christine Lins. 2010. "Energy [R]evolution 2010—a sustainable world energy outlook." Energy Efficiency 4, no. 3: 409-433.