To evaluate the impact of different momentum control variable (CV) schemes (CV5, the momentum control variable option with ψχ and CV7, the momentum control variable option with UV) on radar data assimilation (DA) in weather research and forecasting model data-assimilation (WRFDA) systems, a heavy snowfall in central and eastern regions of China, which started on 6 February 2022, was taken as a case in this study. The results of the wind-field increments from the single observation tests indicated that the wind-field increments had a larger range of influence when stream function and velocity potential (ψχ) were used as momentum control variables in CV5. Some spurious increments were also generated in the wind-field analysis, since CV5 tended to maintain the integrated value of the wind field. When U-wind and V-wind were used as control variables in CV7, the wind-field increments had a smaller impact range, and there was less dependence among different locations on the wind increments. For the heavy snow case, the CV7 schemes displayed some improvements in simulating the composite reflectivity compared to the other two experiments, since the composite reflectivity in the CV5 and control experiments were overestimated to some level. It was also found that the RMSEs were lower in the CV7 compared to those in the CV5 in the short-term forecasts during the data-assimilation cycles. Results also indicated that the CV7 had a more significant effect on the 6 h accumulated precipitation forecasts. Meanwhile, the experiment Exp_CV7 achieved the best ETS and FSS scores among the three groups of experiments, while Exp_CV5 appeared to be generally superior to the CTRL. In summary, the precipitation of Exp_CV7 yielded the rainfall intensity and location most close to the observation compared to those from both the CTRL and Exp_CV5 experiments.
29 June 2020 in Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
Aerosol‐cloud interactions remain a major source of uncertainty in our understanding and modeling of the Earth's hydrological cycle. Based upon a diagnostic and modeling analysis utilizing the latest field measurements from the Integrative Monsoon Frontal Rainfall Experiment (IMFRE) 2018, this paper reports the effects of aerosols on the cloud properties along the Mei‐yu front over the Middle Reaches of Yangtze River in China. Numerical experiments with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model suggest that increasing aerosol number concentration reduces surface precipitation by ~8.8% and delays the onset of rainfall by ~30 min. Furthermore, warm clouds are suppressed but the convective cores are slightly intensified. This corresponds to an overall aerosol effect of “localization and invigoration” of the Mei‐yu rainfall and thus an elevated probability of short‐term heavy rainfall. The signals of “convective invigoration” with a bulk scheme in this study are relatively weak compared to those simulated by bin microphysics. The increased aerosol concentration strengthens Mei‐yu front and changes local morphology of the front, consistent with earlier studies demonstrating positive effects of convective heating on the genesis and maintenance of Mei‐yu front via conditional instability of the second kind (CISK) and diabatic generation of potential vorticity. Also discussed are the uncertainties of bulk microphysics in simulating aerosol‐cloud interactions, which may shed light on the design of future field campaigns to further understand the impact of aerosol‐cloud interactions on weather and climate over China in boreal summer.
Microphysics parameterization becomes increasingly important as the model grid spacing increases toward convection-resolving scales. Using observations from a field campaign for Mei-Yu rainfall in China, four bulk cloud microphysics schemes in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model were evaluated with respect to their ability to simulate precipitation, structure, and cloud microphysical properties over convective and stratiform regimes. These are the Thompson (THOM), Morrison graupel/hail (MOR_G/H), Stony Brook University (SBU_YLIN), and WRF double-moment six-class microphysics graupel/hail (WDM6_G/H). All schemes were able to predict the rain band but underestimated the total precipitation by 23%–35%. This is mainly attributed to the underestimation of stratiform precipitation and overestimation of convective rain. For the vertical distribution of radar reflectivity, many problems remain, such as lower reflectivity values aloft in both convective and stratiform regions and higher reflectivity values at middle level. Each bulk scheme has its advantages and shortcomings for different cloud regimes. Overall, the discrepancies between model output and observations mostly exist in the midlevel to upper level, which results from the inability of the model to accurately represent the particle size distribution, ice processes, and storm dynamics. Further observations from major field campaigns and more detailed evaluation are still necessary.
Heavy precipitation in Northeast China is frequently modulated by the Northeast China Cold Vortex (NCCV), although the microphysical processes within squall lines under such conditions remain insufficiently understood. This study presents a comprehensive analysis of an NCCV-influenced squall line in Liaoning Province, utilizing coordinated S-band polarimetric radar and surface disdrometer observations. The raindrop size distribution (DSD) characteristics and three-dimensional microphysical structure are systematically examined for both convective and stratiform regimes. A comparative analysis of DSD and warm-rain microphysical mechanisms is also conducted with a Mei-yu event. Results show that convective rain in the NCCV squall line exhibits a continental-type DSD, characterized by fewer but larger raindrops compared to other heavy rainfalls in China. In contrast, the Mei-yu frontal convection under NCCV influence exhibits a transitional DSD pattern between the maritime and continental types, with raindrops smaller and denser than those in the NCCV squall line. Vertical structure of the mature squall line shows prominent differential reflectivity (ZDR) and specific differential phase (KDP) columns above the melting level within the convective region, indicating vigorous riming growth of graupel and hail driven by strong updrafts. Meanwhile, the stratiform region is characterized by ice crystals and aggregates, formed primarily through deposition and aggregation processes. The subsequent melting of ice-phase particles followed by collision–coalescence and evaporation-driven size sorting shapes the large but sparse raindrops in the NCCV squall line. Comparison with Mei-yu convection demonstrates that surface DSD is shaped by environmental conditions and vertical microphysics. The drier, more unstable environment in the NCCV squall line favors deep convection with active ice-phase processes, while the relatively moist and stable environment of the Mei-yu convection supports shallower convection dominated by warm-rain processes. Future multi-case studies with integrated observations are needed to quantify how environmental and aerosol conditions modulate these heavy precipitation processes.
Convective clouds during the Mei-yu season contribute significantly to the total rainfall and related disasters over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River in China. Studying the effects of aerosols on convective clouds is of great importance to weather and climate research. However, there are still many open questions to address. This study investigated the effects of aerosol on convections with different cloud geometrical thickness (CGT) bins during the 2018 Mei-yu season, which lasted for 17 days from 18 June to 5 July. Contrasting aerosol effects on shallow and deep convective clouds were revealed by means of anthropogenic aerosol experiments in the Weather Research and Forecasting model with Chemistry (WRF-Chem). Specifically, increased anthropogenic aerosols lead to a 9% reduction in total rainfall and a 7.17% decrease in convection occurrences during the Mei-yu season. After adopting a methodology that stratifies the convective clouds by fixing the CGT, we found that increasing aerosols suppress shallow convections with CGT less than 4 km and invigorate deep convections with CGT greater than 4 km. Increased aerosols enhance the scattering of shortwave radiation, resulting in cooling of the surface air and increasing the stability of the regional lower atmosphere, potentially suppressing shallow convection. Meanwhile, in deep convection, with its stronger updraft and more latent heat, convective invigoration occurs under polluted conditions due to the aerosol-related microphysical and dynamical responses. Considering the high-humidity environment during the Mei-yu season, additional relative humidity tests show that the competing aerosol effects come from convective core invigoration and convective periphery processes which enhance evaporation and dissipation, demonstrating relative humidity is a critical factor in maintaining the net aerosol effects on convections. These results contribute to a better understanding of the effects of anthropogenic aerosols on convections during the Mei-yu season and the competing effects of aerosols depending on the ambient environmental conditions.
Forecasting and early warnings for summertime flash heavy rain events (FHREs) in the middle Yangtze River basin (MYRB) pose significant challenges. This study examined variations in lower tropospheric wind profiles hours before these FHREs using reanalysis data and wind profile radar observations. The findings highlight wind accelerations, directional shifts, and associated vertical shears preceding FHREs, providing valuable insight for severe weather warnings. During the summers of 2010–2019, FHREs occurred most frequently and contributed significantly to total precipitation during the Meiyu period, compared to before and after. Meiyu FHREs also exhibit longer durations and nocturnal peaks. Spatially, FHRE frequency increases from northwest to southeast, with higher frequencies in the topographic areas. The discernible moisture influx 4 hr before FHREs primarily comes from southwesterly and easterly winds below 700 hPa. Before FHRE, weaker easterly winds dominated western MYRB, while strong southerly winds prevailed in the east, influenced by mesoscale cyclonic shear and low‐level jets. Detailed wind changes below 4 km altitude show that over the southeastern MYRB, accelerated west‐southwest winds are observed 3–4 hr before FHREs, while southerly components near the boundary layer top intensified 2 hr earlier. Within 1 hr before FHREs, the wind speeds sharply increase to peak. East of the western mountains, southwesterly winds strengthen 5 hr prior, then weaken as they shift to northerlies just before FHREs, accompanied by reinforced northerlies near the surface. Over the western mountainous area, southeasterly components below 2 km altitude increase 4 hr before FHREs, although at lower speeds.