Forest aboveground biomass (AGB) is not only the basis for forest carbon stock research, but also an important parameter for assessing the forest carbon cycle and ecological functions of forests. However, there are various uncertainties in the estimation process, limiting the accuracy of AGB estimation. Therefore, we extracted the spectral features, vegetation indices and texture factors from remote sensing images based on the field data and Landsat 8 OLI remote sensing images in Southern China to quantify the uncertainties. Then, we established three AGB estimation models, including K Nearest Neighbor Regression (KNN), Gradient Boosted Regression Tree (GBRT) and Random Forest (RF). Uncertainties at the plot scale and models were measured by using error equations to analyze the influences of uncertainties at different scales on AGB estimation. Results were as follows: (1) The R² of the per-tree biomass model for Cunninghamia lanceolata was 0.970, while the uncertainty of the residual and parameters for per-tree biomass model was 4.62% and 4.81%, respectively; and the uncertainty transferred to the plot scale was 3.23%. (2) The estimation methods had the most significant effects on the remote sensing models. RF was more accurate than other two methods, and had the highest accuracy (R² = 0.867, RMSE = 19.325 t/ha) and lowest uncertainty (5.93%), which outperformed both the KNN and GBRT models (KNN: R² = 0.368, RMSE = 42.314 t/ha, uncertainty = 14.88%; GBRT: R² = 0.636, RMSE = 32.056 t/ha, uncertainty = 6.3%). Compared to KNN and GBRT, the R² of RF was enhanced by 0.499 and 0.231, while the uncertainty was decreased by 8.95% and 0.37%, respectively. The uncertainty associated with the scale of remote sensing models remains the primary source of uncertainty when compared to the plot scale. On the remote sensing scale, RF is the model with the best estimation effect. This study examines the impact of both plot-scale and remote sensing model-scale methodologies on the estimation of AGB for Cunninghamia lanceolata. The findings aim to offer valuable insights and considerations for enhancing the accuracy of AGB estimations.

This study focused on 16,101 Cunninghamia lanceolata trees across 133 plots in seven cities of Guangdong Province, China, to develop a comprehensive full growth cycle crown width (CW) model. We systematically analyzed the dynamic characteristics of CW and its multi-scale influencing mechanisms. A binary basic model, with the diameter at breast height (DBH) and height (H) as core predictor variables, effectively reflected tree growth patterns. The inclusion of age groups as dummy variables allowed the model to capture the dynamic changes in CW across different growth stages. Furthermore, the incorporation of a nested two-level nonlinear mixed-effects (NLME) model, accounting for random effects from the forest block- and sample plot-level effects, significantly improved the precision and applicability of the final model (R² = 0.731, RMSE = 0.491). This model quantified both macro- and micro-level effects of region and plot on CW. Our findings showed that the two-level NLME model, incorporating tree age groups, optimally accounted for environmental heterogeneity and tree growth cycles, resulting in the best-fitting statistics. The proposed full growth cycle CW model effectively enhanced the model’s efficiency and predictive accuracy for Cunninghamia lanceolata, providing scientific support for the sustainable management and dynamic monitoring of plantation forests.