This paper presents an attempt to the valuation of the operational flexibility of the energy investment project based on the example of combined cycle gas turbine (CCGT). For this purpose, the real options approach (ROA), net present value (NPV) method, and the Monte Carlo (MC) simulation have been used. Motivations to take up such a topic result from the fact that traditional valuation methods neglect flexibility embedded in CCGT assets. Operational flexibility was defined as the switching option to dynamically shut down and restart gas units. Valuation of the operational flexibility, the project’s extended net present value (XNPV), was based on a discounted cash flow model. The Monte Carlo simulation, allowing for better replication of the stochastic nature of market factors and some technical parameters, was introduced to the valuation model. The obtained results indicate that the value of the options significantly influences the NPV of the analyzed technology and its risk profile. The NPV was calculated at −169.1 million USD, while the XNPV amounted to 102.5 million USD. This difference, compared to the NPV distribution range at a significance level of 0.05, was more than 8.1% (almost 10.4% for α = 0.1). The results achieved help to explain the significance of the operational flexibility in the modeling profitability of CCGT technologies.
23 January 2019 in IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science
Wind power is currently one of the most promising energy sources, both in Europe andacrossthe world. In Poland, a large annual increase in the installed wind turbine capacity has been observed for many years. Power generation from wind turbines is related to wind parameters, which, in turn, result from changes in atmospheric conditions. This is why the observed wind speed has different values depending on time and place (location and altitude). This affects the amount of generated power and the continuity of its production. The authors of this article carried out an analysis of the potential of the diversification of wind energy sources in Poland. The research was conducted with the aim of assessing the variability of the potential production of electrical energy. The analysis concerned the volatility of the wind speed and the variability of available turbine power, as well as its distribution over appropriate points in the location grid-a set of combinations for every point in the location grid, aiming to present the effect of the diversification. For this purpose, the standard deviation in relation to the average power of wind turbines was selected as a comparative measure. The analyses were conducted based on historical wind measurements and data retrieved from the MERRA database. The results indicate that it is more advantageous for both the Polish power system and power plant owners (energy companies) to build smaller wind farms that are distant from each other and to group them in pairs in order to create a virtual power plant. Despite a wind-farm downtime of less than 15% for most of Poland in the analysed period, the existing power differences do not provide the possibility of ensuring continuity of energy supplies.
19 September 2023 in Polityka Energetyczna – Energy Policy Journal
The aim of this article is to assess the potential of converting gasoline-powered passenger cars into electric vehicles in Poland. Based on the available literature data, the vehicle structure was classified using the following criteria: vehicle age, engine capacity, car segment, type of fuel...
This article addresses the issue of reducing carbon footprint in construction production. It focuses on the sources and factors of greenhouse gas emissions responsible for climate change. The construction sector plays a significant role in generating carbon footprint, both in the manufacturing of construction products within supply chains and during the execution of construction work on-site. The identified factors that influence carbon footprint throughout the lifecycle of a construction project and the life of a building are examined and analysed using the DEMATEL method. The research aims to identify causal relationships among factors that contribute to minimising carbon footprint in construction projects. The factors with the highest causal impact are identified in each phase of the building’s lifecycle, including Building Information Modelling (BIM), appropriate selection of construction products, and regulatory and financial incentives. The results of the analysis can be utilised to support decision-making processes aimed at reducing harmful emissions during project realisation and building operation.