Glaciers of the Bolivian Andes represent an important water resource for Andean cities and mountain communities, yet relatively little work has assessed changes in their extent over recent decades. In many mountain regions, glacier recession has been accompanied by the development of proglacial lakes, which can pose a glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) hazard. However, no studies have assessed the development of such lakes in Bolivia despite recent GLOF incidents here. Our mapping from satellite imagery reveals an overall areal shrinkage of 228.1 ± 22.8 km² (43.1 %) across the Bolivian Cordillera Oriental between 1986 and 2014. Shrinkage was greatest in the Tres Cruces region (47.3 %), followed by the Cordillera Apolobamba (43.1 %) and Cordillera Real (41.9 %). A growing number of proglacial lakes have developed as glaciers have receded, in accordance with trends in most other deglaciating mountain ranges, although the number of ice-contact lakes has decreased. The reasons for this are unclear, but the pattern of lake change has varied significantly throughout the study period, suggesting that monitoring of future lake development is required as ice continues to recede. Ultimately, we use our 2014 database of proglacial lakes to assess GLOF risk across the Bolivian Andes. We identify 25 lakes that pose a potential GLOF threat to downstream communities and infrastructure. We suggest that further studies of potential GLOF impacts are urgently required.

Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) are among the most concerning consequences of retreating glaciers in mountain ranges worldwide. GLOFs have attracted significant attention amongst scientists and practitioners in the past 2 decades, with particular interest in the physical drivers and mechanisms of GLOF hazard and in socioeconomic and other human-related developments that affect vulnerabilities to GLOF events. This increased research focus on GLOFs is reflected in the gradually increasing number of papers published annually. This study offers an overview of recent GLOF research by analysing 594 peer-reviewed GLOF studies published between 2017 and 2021 (Web of Science and Scopus databases), reviewing the content and geographical focus as well as other characteristics of GLOF studies. This review is complemented with perspectives from the first GLOF conference (7–9 July 2021, online) where a global GLOF research community of major mountain regions gathered to discuss the current state of the art of integrated GLOF research. Therefore, representatives from 17 countries identified and elaborated trends and challenges and proposed possible ways forward to navigate future GLOF research, in four thematic areas: (i) understanding GLOFs – timing and processes; (ii) modelling GLOFs and GLOF process chains; (iii) GLOF risk management, prevention and warning; and (iv) human dimensions of GLOFs and GLOF attribution to climate change.

Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) represent a significant threat in deglaciating environments, necessitating the development of GLOF hazard and risk assessment procedures. Here, we outline a Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) approach that can be used to rapidly identify potentially dangerous lakes in regions without existing tailored GLOF risk assessments, where a range of glacial lake types exist, and where field data are sparse or non-existent. Our MCDA model (1) is desk-based and uses freely and widely available data inputs and software, and (2) allows the relative risk posed by a range of glacial lake types to be assessed simultaneously within any region. A review of the factors that influence GLOF risk, combined with the strict rules of criteria selection inherent to MCDA, has allowed us to identify 13 exhaustive, non-redundant, and consistent risk criteria. We use our MCDA model to assess the risk of 16 extant glacial lakes and 6 lakes that have already generated GLOFs, and found that our results agree well with previous studies. For the first time in GLOF risk assessment, we employed sensitivity analyses to test the strength of our model results and assumptions, and to identify lakes that are sensitive to the criteria and risk thresholds used. A key benefit of the MCDA method is that sensitivity analyses are readily undertaken. Overall, these sensitivity analyses lend support to our model, although we suggest that further work is required to determine the relative importance of assessment criteria, and the thresholds that determine the level of risk for each criterion. As a case study, the tested method was then applied to 25 potentially dangerous lakes in the Bolivian Andes, where GLOF risk is poorly understood; 3 lakes are found to pose 'medium' or 'high' risk, and require further detailed investigation.

The Bolivian Andes have experienced sustained and widespread glacier mass loss in recent decades. Glacier recession has been accompanied by the development of proglacial lakes, which pose a glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) risk to downstream communities and infrastructure. Previous research has identified three potentially dangerous glacial lakes in the Bolivian Andes, but no attempt has yet been made to model GLOF inundation downstream from these lakes. We generated 2-m resolution DEMs from stereo and tri-stereo SPOT 6/7 satellite images to drive a hydrodynamic model of GLOF flow (HEC-RAS 5.0.3). The model was tested against field observations of a 2009 GLOF from Keara, in the Cordillera Apolobamba, and was shown to reproduce realistic flood depths and inundation. The model was then used to model GLOFs from Pelechuco lake (Cordillera Apolobamba) and Laguna Arkhata and Laguna Glaciar (Cordillera Real). In total, six villages could be affected by GLOFs if all three lakes burst. For sensitivity analysis, we ran the model for three scenarios (pessimistic, intermediate, optimistic), which give a range of ~ 1100 to ~ 2200 people affected by flooding; between ~ 800 and ~ 2100 people could be exposed to floods with a flow depth ≥ 2 m, which could be life threatening and cause a significant damage to infrastructure. We suggest that Laguna Arkhata and Pelechuco lake represent the greatest risk due to the higher numbers of people who live in the potential flow paths, and hence, these two glacial lakes should be a priority for risk managers.

Recent estimates suggest that more than 40 million people worldwide are in situations of modern slavery and other forms of labor exploitation. UN Sustainable Development Goal 8.7 addresses this problem and urges stakeholders to take effective measures to end all forms of labor exploitation by 2030. Labor exploitation is often a direct consequence of forced migration, and humanitarian operations have a key role to play in tackling this issue worldwide. Academic research can facilitate this by providing the necessary decision‐making tools to support antislavery practitioners in humanitarian organizations and governments. For effective resource allocation, these practitioners need tools to help them systematically identify and assess the risks of labor exploitation in an area. In this study, we develop a multi‐method approach that combines various data sources to capture the issue's complex and multidimensional nature. Through satellite remote sensing, we first identify 50 informal settlements hosting migrant workers in the strawberry production area of Southern Greece. We then apply a multi‐criteria decision analysis (MCDA) method to a subset of six informal settlements in order to evaluate their labor exploitation risks based on eight criteria. In addition to being practically implemented by a humanitarian organization and a government agency in Greece, our study advances research on humanitarian operations and labor exploitation by elucidating how a multi‐method approach can be used for data‐driven prioritization of interventions against labor exploitation. Our approach offers opportunities for other applications in the field of humanitarian operations.

The Aneto, located on the Maladeta Massif (Central Pyrenees), is the largest glacier of the Pyrenees. The glacier is 675 m long, occupies an area of 48.64 ha and has a maximum altitude of 3269 m. In this study, we present a detailed area, volume, ice thickness, and Equilibrium Line Altitude reconstruction of the glacier for different periods (LIA, 1957, 1983, 2000, 2006, 2015, and 2017) and analyze its retreat. To estimate the glacier extent during the LIA, the moraines were mapped by using photo interpretation techniques whereas for the recent stages digital satellite images and aerial photographs were used. Moreover, we estimated the topography of the glacier using a simple steady-state model that assumes a perfectly plastic ice rheology, which allowed reconstructing the theoretical ice profiles of the glacier. To reconstruct the ice surface, a digital elevation model was created and combined with the bedrock topography in order to obtain the ice thickness of each stage. The results of the study reveal a considerable retreat of the Aneto Glacier since the LIA. The length of the glacier has reduced from 1970 to 675 m from LIA to2017, and its tongue has retreated from 2385 to 3029 m a.s.l. Furthermore, the glaciated area has been reduced from 245 to 48.64 ha from LIA to 2017 and the ELA has risen from 2919 to 3139 m a.s.l. The data obtained indicates that in the LIA–2017 period the glacier volume has been reduced from 82.57 m × 10⁶ m³ to 3.48 m × 10⁶ m³ and the maximum ice thickness from 95 to 27m. We also reconstructed the climatic conditions, showing an increase in temperature of ~1.14°C from LIA to 2017. These data reveal a vast retreat of the glacier since the LIA, which has accelerated since the 1980’s and even more since the year 2000.