This page has only limited features, please log in for full access.
The conceptualization of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) framework represented a major leap in scenario development in the context of global environmental change and sustainability, providing significant advances from the previous scenario frameworks—especially the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. It is highly likely that the SSP concept, along with its scenario narratives and their respective results, including land-use change projections, will play a substantial role in the forthcoming Sixth Assessment Report by the IPCC. Here, we offer some insights that could make the SSPs’ projected future changes in global land use more comprehensive and also help improve the interpretability of such projections. For example, instead of focusing on the quantity of each land-use class at various time points which results only in a net change when change is detected between time points, we recommend that the projected gross gains and gross losses in each land-use class across all scenarios should also be considered. Overall, the insights presented could also help pave the way for stronger collaboration between the SSP-climate science community and the land system science community; such collaboration is much needed in addressing the challenges of global environmental change towards a climate-resilient sustainable development pathway.
Ronald C. Estoque; Makoto Ooba; Takuya Togawa; Yasuaki Hijioka. Projected land-use changes in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways: Insights and implications. Ambio 2020, 49, 1972 -1981.
AMA StyleRonald C. Estoque, Makoto Ooba, Takuya Togawa, Yasuaki Hijioka. Projected land-use changes in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways: Insights and implications. Ambio. 2020; 49 (12):1972-1981.
Chicago/Turabian StyleRonald C. Estoque; Makoto Ooba; Takuya Togawa; Yasuaki Hijioka. 2020. "Projected land-use changes in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways: Insights and implications." Ambio 49, no. 12: 1972-1981.
Coastal areas provide important services and functions for social and economic activities. Damage due to sea level rise (SLR) is one of the serious problems anticipated and caused by climate change. In this study, we assess the global economic impact of inundation due to SLR by using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model that incorporates detailed coastal damage information. The scenario analysis considers multiple general circulation models, socioeconomic assumptions, and stringency of climate change mitigation measures. We found that the global household consumption loss proportion will be 0.045%, with a range of 0.027−0.066%, in 2100. Socioeconomic assumptions cause a difference in the loss proportion of up to 0.035% without greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions mitigation, the so-called baseline scenarios. The range of the loss proportion among GHG emission scenarios is smaller than the differences among the socioeconomic assumptions. We also observed large regional variations and, in particular, the consumption losses in low-income countries are, relatively speaking, larger than those in high-income countries. These results indicate that, even if we succeed in stabilizing the global mean temperature increase below 2 °C, economic losses caused by SLR will inevitably happen to some extent, which may imply that keeping the global mean temperature increase below 1.5 °C would be worthwhile to consider.
Osamu Nishiura; Makoto Tamura; Shinichiro Fujimori; Kiyoshi Takahashi; Junya Takakura; Yasuaki Hijioka. An Assessment of Global Macroeconomic Impacts Caused by Sea Level Rise Using the Framework of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and Representative Concentration Pathways. Sustainability 2020, 12, 3737 .
AMA StyleOsamu Nishiura, Makoto Tamura, Shinichiro Fujimori, Kiyoshi Takahashi, Junya Takakura, Yasuaki Hijioka. An Assessment of Global Macroeconomic Impacts Caused by Sea Level Rise Using the Framework of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and Representative Concentration Pathways. Sustainability. 2020; 12 (9):3737.
Chicago/Turabian StyleOsamu Nishiura; Makoto Tamura; Shinichiro Fujimori; Kiyoshi Takahashi; Junya Takakura; Yasuaki Hijioka. 2020. "An Assessment of Global Macroeconomic Impacts Caused by Sea Level Rise Using the Framework of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and Representative Concentration Pathways." Sustainability 12, no. 9: 3737.
Climate change, air pollution, and the rapidly aging population are important public health challenges. An understanding of air pollution impacts is imperative for preventing air-pollution-related deaths and illnesses, particularly in vulnerable subgroups such as the increasing population of older adults. To assess the effects of short-term air-pollution exposure on the elderly, we conducted a time-series analysis (1996–2015) of the associations between particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter of
Satbyul Estella Kim; Yasuaki Hijioka; Tatsuya Nagashima; Ho Kim. Particulate Matter and Its Impact on Mortality among Elderly Residents of Seoul, South Korea. Atmosphere 2019, 11, 18 .
AMA StyleSatbyul Estella Kim, Yasuaki Hijioka, Tatsuya Nagashima, Ho Kim. Particulate Matter and Its Impact on Mortality among Elderly Residents of Seoul, South Korea. Atmosphere. 2019; 11 (1):18.
Chicago/Turabian StyleSatbyul Estella Kim; Yasuaki Hijioka; Tatsuya Nagashima; Ho Kim. 2019. "Particulate Matter and Its Impact on Mortality among Elderly Residents of Seoul, South Korea." Atmosphere 11, no. 1: 18.
Previous studies show that escalations in ambient temperature are among the risk factors for acute kidney injury (AKI). However, it has not been adequately studied in our location, Seoul, South Korea. In this study, we aimed to examine the association between ambient temperatures and AKI morbidity using emergency department (ED) visit data. We obtained data on ED visits from the National Emergency Medical Center for 21,656 reported cases of AKI from 2010 to 2014. Time-stratified case-crossover design analysis based on conditional logistic regression was used to analyze short-term effects of ambient temperature on AKI after controlling for relevant covariates. The shape of the exposure-response curve, effect modification by individual demographic characteristics, season, and comorbidities, as well as lag effects, were investigated. The odds ratio (OR) per 1 °C increase at lag 0 was 1.0087 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.0041-1.0134). Risks were higher during the warm season (OR = 1.0149; 95% CI: 1.0065-1.0234) than during the cool season (OR = 1.0059; 95% CI: 1.0003-1.0116) and even higher above 22.3 °C (OR = 1.0235; 95% CI: 1.0230-1.0239). This study provides evidence that ED visits for AKI were associated with ambient temperature. Early detection and treatment of patients at risk is important in both clinical and economic concerns related to AKI.
Satbyul Estella Kim; Hyewon Lee; Jayeun Kim; Young Kyu Lee; Minjin Kang; Yasuaki Hijioka; Ho Kim. Temperature as a risk factor of emergency department visits for acute kidney injury: a case-crossover study in Seoul, South Korea. Environmental Health 2019, 18, 55 .
AMA StyleSatbyul Estella Kim, Hyewon Lee, Jayeun Kim, Young Kyu Lee, Minjin Kang, Yasuaki Hijioka, Ho Kim. Temperature as a risk factor of emergency department visits for acute kidney injury: a case-crossover study in Seoul, South Korea. Environmental Health. 2019; 18 (1):55.
Chicago/Turabian StyleSatbyul Estella Kim; Hyewon Lee; Jayeun Kim; Young Kyu Lee; Minjin Kang; Yasuaki Hijioka; Ho Kim. 2019. "Temperature as a risk factor of emergency department visits for acute kidney injury: a case-crossover study in Seoul, South Korea." Environmental Health 18, no. 1: 55.
Climate change increases workers’ exposure to heat stress. To prevent heat‐related illnesses, according to occupational‐health recommendations, labor capacity must be reduced. However, this preventive measure is expected to be costly, and the costs are likely to rise as the scale and scope of climate change impacts increase over time. Shifting the start of the working day to earlier in the morning could be an effective adaptation measure for avoiding the impacts of labor capacity reduction. However, the plausibility and efficacy of such an intervention have never been quantitatively assessed. Here we investigate whether working time shifts can offset the economic impacts of labor capacity reduction due to climate change. Incorporating a temporally (one‐hour) and spatially (0.5°×0.5°) high‐resolution heat exposure index into an integrated assessment model, we calculated the working time shift necessary to offset labor capacity reduction and economic loss under hypothetical with‐ and without‐realistic‐adaptation scenarios. The results of a normative scenario analysis indicated that a global average shift of 5.7 (4.0‐6.1) hours is required, assuming extreme climate conditions in the 2090s. Although a realistic (< three hours) shift nearly halves the economic cost, a substantial cost corresponding to 1.6% (1.0‐2.4%) of global total gross domestic product is expected to remain. In contrast, if stringent climate‐change mitigation is achieved, a realistic shift limits the remaining cost to 0.14% (0.12‐0.47%) of global total gross domestic product. Although shifting working time is shown to be effective as an adaptation measure, climate‐change mitigation remains indispensable to minimize the impact.
Jun'ya Takakura; Shinichiro Fujimori; Kiyoshi Takahashi; Tomoko Hasegawa; Yasushi Honda; Naota Hanasaki; Yasuaki Hijioka; Toshihiko Masui. Limited Role of Working Time Shift in Offsetting the Increasing Occupational‐Health Cost of Heat Exposure. Earth's Future 2018, 6, 1588 -1602.
AMA StyleJun'ya Takakura, Shinichiro Fujimori, Kiyoshi Takahashi, Tomoko Hasegawa, Yasushi Honda, Naota Hanasaki, Yasuaki Hijioka, Toshihiko Masui. Limited Role of Working Time Shift in Offsetting the Increasing Occupational‐Health Cost of Heat Exposure. Earth's Future. 2018; 6 (11):1588-1602.
Chicago/Turabian StyleJun'ya Takakura; Shinichiro Fujimori; Kiyoshi Takahashi; Tomoko Hasegawa; Yasushi Honda; Naota Hanasaki; Yasuaki Hijioka; Toshihiko Masui. 2018. "Limited Role of Working Time Shift in Offsetting the Increasing Occupational‐Health Cost of Heat Exposure." Earth's Future 6, no. 11: 1588-1602.
Changes in agricultural yields due to climate change will affect land use, agricultural production volume, and food prices as well as macroeconomic indicators, such as GDP, which is important as it enables one to compare climate change impacts across multiple sectors. This study considered five key uncertainty factors and estimated macroeconomic impacts due to crop yield changes using a novel integrated assessment framework. The five factors are (1) land-use change (or yield aggregation method based on spatially explicit information), (2) the amplitude of the CO2 fertilization effect, (3) the use of different climate models, (4) socioeconomic assumptions and (5) the level of mitigation stringency. We found that their global impacts on the macroeconomic indicator value were 0.02–0.06% of GDP in 2100. However, the impacts on the agricultural sector varied greatly by socioeconomic assumption. The relative contributions of these factors to the total uncertainty in the projected macroeconomic indicator value were greater in a pessimistic world scenario characterized by a large population size, low income, and low yield development than in an optimistic scenario characterized by a small population size, high income, and high yield development (0.00%).
Shinichiro Fujimori; Toshichika Iizumi; Tomoko Hasegawa; Jun’Ya Takakura; Kiyoshi Takahashi; Yasuaki Hijioka. Macroeconomic Impacts of Climate Change Driven by Changes in Crop Yields. Sustainability 2018, 10, 3673 .
AMA StyleShinichiro Fujimori, Toshichika Iizumi, Tomoko Hasegawa, Jun’Ya Takakura, Kiyoshi Takahashi, Yasuaki Hijioka. Macroeconomic Impacts of Climate Change Driven by Changes in Crop Yields. Sustainability. 2018; 10 (10):3673.
Chicago/Turabian StyleShinichiro Fujimori; Toshichika Iizumi; Tomoko Hasegawa; Jun’Ya Takakura; Kiyoshi Takahashi; Yasuaki Hijioka. 2018. "Macroeconomic Impacts of Climate Change Driven by Changes in Crop Yields." Sustainability 10, no. 10: 3673.
Replacing rainfed cropping systems with irrigated systems has been deemed an effective agricultural adaptation measure in response to climate change. However, few agricultural impact assessments have considered changes in the water availability because of climate change and water‐use competition among crops. Here, we assessed future global crop production under a changing climate and expanded surface water irrigation using the large‐scale crop‐river coupled model CROVER. The future irrigated area was estimated by extrapolating from the historical linear trends. We present three interesting cases from this global analysis. The results under a high‐emission scenario (RCP8.5) showed that, in response to irrigation expansion, maize production in Europe will increase, whereas rice production in East Asia will not increase because of competitive water use between rice and other crops. Furthermore, we found that future precipitation over crop‐producing areas in the Indus River watershed will decrease but that increased precipitation in the higher mountainous areas of the watershed will compensate for these diminished water resources, thereby reducing drought damage. Our findings reveal that competitive water use among crops and the geographical patterns of future changes in precipitation influence the benefits of expanding irrigation for crop production under a changing climate.
Masashi Okada; Toshichika Iizumi; Takaaki Sakamoto; Mizuki Kotoku; Gen Sakurai; Yasuaki Hijioka; Motoki Nishimori. Varying Benefits of Irrigation Expansion for Crop Production Under a Changing Climate and Competitive Water Use Among Crops. Earth's Future 2018, 6, 1207 -1220.
AMA StyleMasashi Okada, Toshichika Iizumi, Takaaki Sakamoto, Mizuki Kotoku, Gen Sakurai, Yasuaki Hijioka, Motoki Nishimori. Varying Benefits of Irrigation Expansion for Crop Production Under a Changing Climate and Competitive Water Use Among Crops. Earth's Future. 2018; 6 (9):1207-1220.
Chicago/Turabian StyleMasashi Okada; Toshichika Iizumi; Takaaki Sakamoto; Mizuki Kotoku; Gen Sakurai; Yasuaki Hijioka; Motoki Nishimori. 2018. "Varying Benefits of Irrigation Expansion for Crop Production Under a Changing Climate and Competitive Water Use Among Crops." Earth's Future 6, no. 9: 1207-1220.
Quality of life (QOL), although a complex and amorphous concept, is a term that warrants attention, especially in discussions on issues that touch on the impacts of climate change and variability. Based on the principles of RepOrting standards for Systematic Evidence Synthesis, we present a systematic review aimed at gaining insights into the conceptualization and methodological construct of previous studies regarding QOL and QOL-related indexes. We find that (i) QOL assessments vary in terms of conceptual foundations, dimensions, indicators, and units of analysis, (ii) social indicators are consistently used across assessments, (iii) most assessments consider indicators that pertain to the livability of the environment, and (iv) QOL can be based on objective indicators and/or subjective well-being, and on a composite index or unaggregated dimensions and indicators. However, we also find that QOL assessments remain poorly connected with climate-related issues, an important research gap. Our proposed “QOL-Climate” assessment framework, designed to capture the social-ecological impacts of climate change and variability, can potentially help fill this gap.
Ronald C. Estoque; Takuya Togawa; Makoto Ooba; Kei Gomi; Shogo Nakamura; Yasuaki Hijioka; Yasuko Kameyama. A review of quality of life (QOL) assessments and indicators: Towards a “QOL-Climate” assessment framework. Ambio 2018, 48, 619 -638.
AMA StyleRonald C. Estoque, Takuya Togawa, Makoto Ooba, Kei Gomi, Shogo Nakamura, Yasuaki Hijioka, Yasuko Kameyama. A review of quality of life (QOL) assessments and indicators: Towards a “QOL-Climate” assessment framework. Ambio. 2018; 48 (6):619-638.
Chicago/Turabian StyleRonald C. Estoque; Takuya Togawa; Makoto Ooba; Kei Gomi; Shogo Nakamura; Yasuaki Hijioka; Yasuko Kameyama. 2018. "A review of quality of life (QOL) assessments and indicators: Towards a “QOL-Climate” assessment framework." Ambio 48, no. 6: 619-638.
Yoshimitsu Masaki; Naota Hanasaki; Kiyoshi Takahashi; Yasuaki Hijioka. Consequences of implementing a reservoir operation algorithm in a global hydrological model under multiple meteorological forcing. Hydrological Sciences Journal 2018, 63, 1047 -1061.
AMA StyleYoshimitsu Masaki, Naota Hanasaki, Kiyoshi Takahashi, Yasuaki Hijioka. Consequences of implementing a reservoir operation algorithm in a global hydrological model under multiple meteorological forcing. Hydrological Sciences Journal. 2018; 63 (7):1047-1061.
Chicago/Turabian StyleYoshimitsu Masaki; Naota Hanasaki; Kiyoshi Takahashi; Yasuaki Hijioka. 2018. "Consequences of implementing a reservoir operation algorithm in a global hydrological model under multiple meteorological forcing." Hydrological Sciences Journal 63, no. 7: 1047-1061.
将来の気候変化による作物収量の変化は,土地利用,農業部門の生産量や価格,さらにマクロ経済へと影響する.これまで,経済モデルを用いた研究では食料価格や食料安全保障については豊富に研究が存在するが,マクロ経済影響についてはあまり研究が蓄積されていない.そこで本研究では,最も先進的な全球収量モデルのひとつであるCYGMAモデルと経済モデルであるAIM/ CGE,土地利用分配モデルであるAIM/ PLUMを用いて,気候変化による作物収量のマクロ経済への影響を明らかにした.その際,土地利用変化による適応策,社会経済条件,CO2施肥効果,気候モデルの不確実性などできる限り,マクロ経済に影響を与える因子と不確実性を扱った.その結果,CO2施肥効果や土地利用適応策は,マクロ経済への影響は必ずしも明瞭な違いを生まず,他の部門(例えば健康影響や洪水被害など)の気候変化の経済影響より小さかった(0.02-0.06%).しかし,人口増加が大きく低所得といった悲観的な世界のシナリオの基では十分に他部門と比較可能となる大きな影響(0.6%)が出ることが分かった.これは悲観的なシナリオでは農業部門の付加価値のGDPに占める割合が相対的に高く,同じ気候影響下でも被害額が大きくなることが主たる原因と考えられた.
Shinichiro Fujimori; Toshichika Iizumi; Tomoko Hasegawa; Junya Takakura; Kiyoshi Takahashi; Yasuaki Hijioka; Toshihiko Masui. MACROECONOMIC IMPACT INDUCED BY CROP YIELD CHANGE ASSOCIATED WITH CLIMATE CHANGE. Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. G (Environmental Research) 2017, 73, I_397 -I_405.
AMA StyleShinichiro Fujimori, Toshichika Iizumi, Tomoko Hasegawa, Junya Takakura, Kiyoshi Takahashi, Yasuaki Hijioka, Toshihiko Masui. MACROECONOMIC IMPACT INDUCED BY CROP YIELD CHANGE ASSOCIATED WITH CLIMATE CHANGE. Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. G (Environmental Research). 2017; 73 (5):I_397-I_405.
Chicago/Turabian StyleShinichiro Fujimori; Toshichika Iizumi; Tomoko Hasegawa; Junya Takakura; Kiyoshi Takahashi; Yasuaki Hijioka; Toshihiko Masui. 2017. "MACROECONOMIC IMPACT INDUCED BY CROP YIELD CHANGE ASSOCIATED WITH CLIMATE CHANGE." Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. G (Environmental Research) 73, no. 5: I_397-I_405.
気候変動にともなう暑熱ストレスへの曝露の増大により,特に屋外の労働現場において高強度の身体作業に従事可能な時間が減少し,大きな経済的損失が懸念されている.本研究は,暑熱ストレスによる屋外作業可能時間の短縮を軽減するための適応策として,作業時間帯のシフトと身体作業強度の軽減について仮想的なシナリオの下で検討した.温室効果ガス排出削減を行わず気温上昇が続く仮定の下では,身体作業強度が軽減できない作業では,21世紀末には約6時間作業時間帯をシフトさせることが必要であると予測された.一方で2℃目標に対応する気候変動緩和策が実現できた場合には,必要な作業時間帯シフト量は2時間以内に抑えられると予測された.適応策の困難度を現実的な範囲に抑えるという観点からも,気候変動緩和策の実行が不可欠である.
Jun'ya Takakura; Shinichiro Fujimori; Kiyoshi Takahashi; Yasushi Honda; Tomoko Hasegawa; Yasuaki Hijioka; Toshihiko Masui. A STUDY ON THE ADAPTATION MEASURES FOR OUTDOOR WORKTIME REDUCTION DUE TO HEAT STRESSES CAUSED BY CLIMATE CHANGE. Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. G (Environmental Research) 2017, 73, II_283 -II_291.
AMA StyleJun'ya Takakura, Shinichiro Fujimori, Kiyoshi Takahashi, Yasushi Honda, Tomoko Hasegawa, Yasuaki Hijioka, Toshihiko Masui. A STUDY ON THE ADAPTATION MEASURES FOR OUTDOOR WORKTIME REDUCTION DUE TO HEAT STRESSES CAUSED BY CLIMATE CHANGE. Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. G (Environmental Research). 2017; 73 (6):II_283-II_291.
Chicago/Turabian StyleJun'ya Takakura; Shinichiro Fujimori; Kiyoshi Takahashi; Yasushi Honda; Tomoko Hasegawa; Yasuaki Hijioka; Toshihiko Masui. 2017. "A STUDY ON THE ADAPTATION MEASURES FOR OUTDOOR WORKTIME REDUCTION DUE TO HEAT STRESSES CAUSED BY CLIMATE CHANGE." Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. G (Environmental Research) 73, no. 6: II_283-II_291.
To investigate the impacts of climate change and mitigation policies on future hydropower generation, we analyzed the global theoretical hydropower potential (THP) data calculated by the global hydrological model H08 and the hydropower generation (HG) data calculated by the Asia-Pacific Integrated Model/Computable General Equilibrium (AIM/CGE) model. The results implied that climate change would moderately increase the global total THP and socioeconomic change would substantially increase global total HG. Stringent mitigation policy would further increase HG. The increase rate of THP is much smaller than that of HG. There are large variations of increase or decrease in THP across regions, climate change scenarios and periods. The quantified influence demonstrated the significance of coupling H08 and AIM/CGE.
Qian Zhou; Naota Hanasaki; Shinichiro Fujimori; Yoshimitsu Masaki; Yasuaki Hijioka. MODEL-BASED ANALYSIS OF IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND MITIGATION ON HYDROPOWER. Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. B1 (Hydraulic Engineering) 2016, 72, I_19 -I_24.
AMA StyleQian Zhou, Naota Hanasaki, Shinichiro Fujimori, Yoshimitsu Masaki, Yasuaki Hijioka. MODEL-BASED ANALYSIS OF IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND MITIGATION ON HYDROPOWER. Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. B1 (Hydraulic Engineering). 2016; 72 (4):I_19-I_24.
Chicago/Turabian StyleQian Zhou; Naota Hanasaki; Shinichiro Fujimori; Yoshimitsu Masaki; Yasuaki Hijioka. 2016. "MODEL-BASED ANALYSIS OF IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND MITIGATION ON HYDROPOWER." Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. B1 (Hydraulic Engineering) 72, no. 4: I_19-I_24.
地域気候予測情報を活用した定量的な影響評価やリスク解析に関するワークショップ(IPCC主催,2015年9月15~18日,ブラジル)が開催され,AR6に向けた活発な議論が行われた.本報告では議論の概要や所感について述べる.
Satoshi Watanabe; Kiyoshi Takahashi; Yasuaki Hijioka; Michio Kawamiya; Taikan Oki; Akio Kito. Report of the IPCC Workshop on Regional Climate Projections and their Use in Impacts and Risk Analysis Studies. JOURNAL OF JAPAN SOCIETY OF HYDROLOGY AND WATER RESOURCES 2016, 29, 79 -84.
AMA StyleSatoshi Watanabe, Kiyoshi Takahashi, Yasuaki Hijioka, Michio Kawamiya, Taikan Oki, Akio Kito. Report of the IPCC Workshop on Regional Climate Projections and their Use in Impacts and Risk Analysis Studies. JOURNAL OF JAPAN SOCIETY OF HYDROLOGY AND WATER RESOURCES. 2016; 29 (1):79-84.
Chicago/Turabian StyleSatoshi Watanabe; Kiyoshi Takahashi; Yasuaki Hijioka; Michio Kawamiya; Taikan Oki; Akio Kito. 2016. "Report of the IPCC Workshop on Regional Climate Projections and their Use in Impacts and Risk Analysis Studies." JOURNAL OF JAPAN SOCIETY OF HYDROLOGY AND WATER RESOURCES 29, no. 1: 79-84.
This paper focuses on the capacity development initiatives required for the development of a community planning and human resources program in Japan. For this, we first identify the educational and implementation requirements for realizing a low-carbon and climate-resilient community. Secondly, we provide suitable recommendations for developing such programs by comparing and analyzing a number of similar initiatives implemented in Japan and Germany. Finally, we selected one major Climate Change Education (CCE) program developed by the federal state of Germany and conducted semi-structured interviews with the developer of the program based on the following aspects: (1) overview, (2) educational characteristics, (3) evaluation status, (4) climate change-related content, and (5) implemenation scheme. We then compared this with a previous result of our interview survey carried out on major CCE programs in Japan (Takahashi et al., 2016) and identified the required elements for improving the capacity development program. The elements revealed during the investigations are: (1) setting an intended competence at the program developmental stage and selecting an appropriate learning method for the participants, (2) setting a standard for the capacity level and knowledge level required of the instructor, (3) implementing a CCE program support system utilizing the federal state’s educational system and structure, (4) constructing holistic educational contents following the developmental stage of sustainable key competencies (Wiek et al., 2011), and (5) use of local official data on climate change based on a regional approach. These are the differences used for the comparison with Japanese CCE programs, and these elements should be considered when CCE capacity development programs are developed and implemented in Japan.
Keiko Takahashi; Yasuaki Hijioka; Kiyoshi Takahashi; Naota Hanasaki. Study on Climate Change Education Aimed at Fostering Regional Leaders. Japanese Journal of Environmental Education 2016, 26, 2_29 -42.
AMA StyleKeiko Takahashi, Yasuaki Hijioka, Kiyoshi Takahashi, Naota Hanasaki. Study on Climate Change Education Aimed at Fostering Regional Leaders. Japanese Journal of Environmental Education. 2016; 26 (2):2_29-42.
Chicago/Turabian StyleKeiko Takahashi; Yasuaki Hijioka; Kiyoshi Takahashi; Naota Hanasaki. 2016. "Study on Climate Change Education Aimed at Fostering Regional Leaders." Japanese Journal of Environmental Education 26, no. 2: 2_29-42.
The impacts of climate change are apparent in various regions of the world. Even though climate change may have a positive effect, it is anticipated that there will be many severely negative effects on human and natural resources in the future. Therefore, in addition to the need for stronger promotion of mitigation policies, it is urgently necessary to study and implement adaptation policies over the longer term to prepare for the possible negative impact of climate change. To implement climate change adaptation measures rapidly in Japan, it would seem practical and effective to make good use of the various countermeasures already promoted by both the national and the local governments for many sectors such as disaster prevention, environmental management, food production, and protection of the nation’s health. These countermeasures are considered to have potential for effecting climate change adaptation. This study, focusing on adaptation to climate change negative impacts, investigates to what extent the existing policies of the Tokyo Metropolitan Government could contribute to climate change adaptation, based on a comprehensive examination of targeted fields and indicators for which adaptation policies could be pursued. The results showed many of the existing policies could be useful for adaptation to climate change in many sectors. Furthermore, less than half of these policies need to take future climate change into account in order to contribute to climate change adaptation. This study proposes three basic steps that consider future climate change and local governmental propositions for the rapid implementation of adaptation policies in Japan.
Yasuaki Hijioka; Saneyuki Takano; Kazutaka Oka; Minoru Yoshikawa; Arata Ichihashi; Kenshi Baba; Sawako Ishiwatari. Potential of existing policies of the Tokyo Metropolitan Government for implementing adaptation to climate change. Regional Environmental Change 2015, 16, 967 -978.
AMA StyleYasuaki Hijioka, Saneyuki Takano, Kazutaka Oka, Minoru Yoshikawa, Arata Ichihashi, Kenshi Baba, Sawako Ishiwatari. Potential of existing policies of the Tokyo Metropolitan Government for implementing adaptation to climate change. Regional Environmental Change. 2015; 16 (4):967-978.
Chicago/Turabian StyleYasuaki Hijioka; Saneyuki Takano; Kazutaka Oka; Minoru Yoshikawa; Arata Ichihashi; Kenshi Baba; Sawako Ishiwatari. 2015. "Potential of existing policies of the Tokyo Metropolitan Government for implementing adaptation to climate change." Regional Environmental Change 16, no. 4: 967-978.
This study proposes a procedure to extend The Dynamic Integrated Climate-Economy model 2013R (DICE2013R) to enable the simulation of a new framework for climate change studies (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP)), and tentatively assesses long-term climate stabilization targets, considering the possible range of climate sensitivity. The results show that if a higher than actual climate sensitivity is assumed in the planning stage, a greater reduction in industrial CO2 emissions will be required to achieve the 2°C target, and thus the climate change costs are also larger. In contrast, with a lower than actual climate sensitivity assumption, a lesser reduction in industrial CO2 emissions will be required. Climate change researchers and policymakers need to balance the designation of climate policy and the uncertainty with respect to climate sensitivity, to avoid potential losses when climate change policy is implemented. The study also identified the mitigation and adaptation challenge levels, as defined in the SSP framework.
Xuanming Su; Kiyoshi Takahashi; Shinichiro Fujimori; Tomoko Hasegawa; Seita Emori; Yasuaki Hijioka; Toshihiko Masui. ASSESSMENT OF GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSION PATHWAYS BY CONSIDERING A POSSIBLE CLIMATE SENSITIVITY RANGE UNDER DIFFERENT SOCIO-ECONOMIC SCENARIOS. Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. G (Environmental Research) 2015, 71, I_205 -I_216.
AMA StyleXuanming Su, Kiyoshi Takahashi, Shinichiro Fujimori, Tomoko Hasegawa, Seita Emori, Yasuaki Hijioka, Toshihiko Masui. ASSESSMENT OF GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSION PATHWAYS BY CONSIDERING A POSSIBLE CLIMATE SENSITIVITY RANGE UNDER DIFFERENT SOCIO-ECONOMIC SCENARIOS. Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. G (Environmental Research). 2015; 71 (5):I_205-I_216.
Chicago/Turabian StyleXuanming Su; Kiyoshi Takahashi; Shinichiro Fujimori; Tomoko Hasegawa; Seita Emori; Yasuaki Hijioka; Toshihiko Masui. 2015. "ASSESSMENT OF GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSION PATHWAYS BY CONSIDERING A POSSIBLE CLIMATE SENSITIVITY RANGE UNDER DIFFERENT SOCIO-ECONOMIC SCENARIOS." Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. G (Environmental Research) 71, no. 5: I_205-I_216.
Special Report on Emissions Scenarios(SRES)が公表されて以降,気候変動関連研究は主としてSRESを用いて行われてきた.一方,2007年以降に新シナリオプロセスが開始され,新しい社会経済シナリオ Shared Socioeconomic Pathways(SSPs)は気候モデル,影響評価モデル,統合評価モデルで使われ,中核的なシナリオとなることが期待される.また,近年統合評価モデルが提示するシナリオはパラメータの設定等が明瞭に示されずブラックボックスとなっているという批判が存在し,統合評価モデルが抱える大きな問題の一つとなっている.このような背景を踏まえ,本論文は以下の二つの目的を有する.第一にSSPの定量化プロセスについて詳細に記述し,シナリオ定量化作業をオープンにすることである.第二にその結果を既存のシナリオであるSRESとRCP(Representative Concentration Pathways)と比較し,シナリオの特徴を明らかにすることで,今後SSPの主たるユーザーとなる気候モデルや影響評価モデルに対して有用な情報を提供することである.本研究で得た主要な結論は以下のとおりである.第一に大気汚染物質の排出量はRCPで一貫して減少していたが,SSPの一部は増加するシナリオが含まれ,気候モデルにとってエアロゾルの違いの影響を明らかにすることができる.第二に耕作地面積はいずれのシナリオでも21世紀で拡大し,水資源,森林生態系など土地利用に影響される影響評価モデルにとっては土地利用シナリオを考慮することが重要であることが示唆された.
Shinichiro Fujimori; Tomoko Hasegawa; Toshihiko Masui; Kiyoshi Takahashi; Diego Silva Herran; Hancheng Dai; Yasuaki Hijioka; Mikiko Kainuma. NEW SOCIOECONOMIC SCENARIO SSP QUANTIFICATION OF THE AIM'S EXAMPLE AND ITS CHARACTERISTIC. Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. G (Environmental Research) 2015, 71, II_217 -II_228.
AMA StyleShinichiro Fujimori, Tomoko Hasegawa, Toshihiko Masui, Kiyoshi Takahashi, Diego Silva Herran, Hancheng Dai, Yasuaki Hijioka, Mikiko Kainuma. NEW SOCIOECONOMIC SCENARIO SSP QUANTIFICATION OF THE AIM'S EXAMPLE AND ITS CHARACTERISTIC. Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. G (Environmental Research). 2015; 71 (6):II_217-II_228.
Chicago/Turabian StyleShinichiro Fujimori; Tomoko Hasegawa; Toshihiko Masui; Kiyoshi Takahashi; Diego Silva Herran; Hancheng Dai; Yasuaki Hijioka; Mikiko Kainuma. 2015. "NEW SOCIOECONOMIC SCENARIO SSP QUANTIFICATION OF THE AIM'S EXAMPLE AND ITS CHARACTERISTIC." Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. G (Environmental Research) 71, no. 6: II_217-II_228.
By introducing two scalar quantities, namely, the Gini and Lorenz asymmetry coefficients, we examined their characteristics and applicability to the global analysis of changes in river flow regimes under future climate change. First, by applying these coefficients to river discharge data, we showed that various types of flow‐duration curves can be interpreted quantitatively in terms of the seasonal inequality in the discharge (i.e., the unevenness of the temporal distribution of river discharge). Their statistical characteristics, based on five theoretical distribution functions frequently used in hydrological analysis, were also shown. Next we used these coefficients to evaluate the seasonal inequality of major global rivers using the global hydrological model H08 for four 30 year time spans (1960–1989, 2010–2039, 2040–2069, and 2070–2099) under four climate‐change scenarios. We used ensembles of hydrological simulation results with five general circulation models. From the analysis of the Gini coefficient, future changes in seasonal inequality show a contrasting geographical pattern: a decreasing trend at high northern latitudes and an increasing trend in most other areas. The Lorenz asymmetry coefficient shows large changes at high northern latitudes, attributable to major shifts in the flow regime accompanied by different snow‐melting properties under different future climate scenarios. Although a flow‐duration curve is a pictorial representation of river discharge suitable for one specific site, by depicting the geographical distribution of these two coefficients along river channels, different characteristics of flow‐duration curves at different sites can be detected, even within the same river basin.
Yoshimitsu Masaki; Naota Hanasaki; Kiyoshi Takahashi; Yasuaki Hijioka. Global-scale analysis on future changes in flow regimes using Gini and Lorenz asymmetry coefficients. Water Resources Research 2014, 50, 4054 -4078.
AMA StyleYoshimitsu Masaki, Naota Hanasaki, Kiyoshi Takahashi, Yasuaki Hijioka. Global-scale analysis on future changes in flow regimes using Gini and Lorenz asymmetry coefficients. Water Resources Research. 2014; 50 (5):4054-4078.
Chicago/Turabian StyleYoshimitsu Masaki; Naota Hanasaki; Kiyoshi Takahashi; Yasuaki Hijioka. 2014. "Global-scale analysis on future changes in flow regimes using Gini and Lorenz asymmetry coefficients." Water Resources Research 50, no. 5: 4054-4078.
Japanese encephalitis (JE) is one of the most important mosquito-borne viral diseases in Asia. Pigs are a natural host and the amplifier of JE virus. The sero-conversion rate to JE virus in sentinel pigs reflects the activity of JE virus in the region. We analyzed whether precipitation has any effect on the sero-conversion rate to JE virus in sentinel pigs. Linear regression analysis was performed to determine the correlations between the levels of precipitation and sero-conversion rates to JE virus, in the entire year and during summertime over the period of 32 years from 1969 to 2000. The levels of the annual and summertime precipitation demonstrated statistically significant positive correlations with sero-conversion rates for the whole of the country and for some regions in Japan. The levels of the summertime precipitation, on the other hand, demonstrated statistically significant inverse correlations with the sero-conversion rates in other regions. Further, the levels of precipitation during preceding 10-day periods from days 1–40 before blood collection showed inverse correlation with antibody-positive rates in some regions. The results indicate that the relationship between the annual and summertime precipitation, and the sero-conversion rate to JE virus is complex; both positive and inverse effects are demonstrated depending on the regions.
Ichiro Kurane; Ken-Ichi Shibasaki; Akira Kotaki; Yasuaki Hijioka; Tomohiko Takasaki. The Effect of Precipitation on the Transmission of Japanese Encephalitis (JE) Virus in Nature: A Complex Effect on Antibody-Positive Rate to JE Virus in Sentinel Pigs. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 2013, 10, 1831 -1844.
AMA StyleIchiro Kurane, Ken-Ichi Shibasaki, Akira Kotaki, Yasuaki Hijioka, Tomohiko Takasaki. The Effect of Precipitation on the Transmission of Japanese Encephalitis (JE) Virus in Nature: A Complex Effect on Antibody-Positive Rate to JE Virus in Sentinel Pigs. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2013; 10 (5):1831-1844.
Chicago/Turabian StyleIchiro Kurane; Ken-Ichi Shibasaki; Akira Kotaki; Yasuaki Hijioka; Tomohiko Takasaki. 2013. "The Effect of Precipitation on the Transmission of Japanese Encephalitis (JE) Virus in Nature: A Complex Effect on Antibody-Positive Rate to JE Virus in Sentinel Pigs." International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 10, no. 5: 1831-1844.
We have compared differences in hydrological simulation results when two different types of bias correction methodologies were applied to general circulation model output. The methodologies are: (1) a shifting-and-scaling method and (2) a quantile mapping method. Similar seasonal variations of 30-year-mean river discharge were obtained for the both bias correction methods. However, for the maximum monthly discharge in 30 years, the shifting-and-scaling method tends to produce larger values than the quantile mapping method. This feature attributes characteristics on multiplication factors for producing future precipitation data: The maximum end of a precipitation range is selectively affected by the factor. This feature might overestimate future risks of flooding. Since future projection of the river discharge directly links to evaluation of risks accompanied with future climate changes, we should pay attention to bias correction methods when we interpret hydrological simulation results.
Yoshimitsu Masaki; Naota Hanasaki; Kiyoshi Takahashi; Yasuaki Hijioka. EFFECTS OF DIFFERENCES IN BIAS CORRECTION METHODS TO GENERAL CIRCULATION MODEL OUTPUT ON HYDROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. B1 (Hydraulic Engineering) 2013, 69, I_1813 -I_1818.
AMA StyleYoshimitsu Masaki, Naota Hanasaki, Kiyoshi Takahashi, Yasuaki Hijioka. EFFECTS OF DIFFERENCES IN BIAS CORRECTION METHODS TO GENERAL CIRCULATION MODEL OUTPUT ON HYDROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. B1 (Hydraulic Engineering). 2013; 69 (4):I_1813-I_1818.
Chicago/Turabian StyleYoshimitsu Masaki; Naota Hanasaki; Kiyoshi Takahashi; Yasuaki Hijioka. 2013. "EFFECTS OF DIFFERENCES IN BIAS CORRECTION METHODS TO GENERAL CIRCULATION MODEL OUTPUT ON HYDROLOGICAL ANALYSIS." Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. B1 (Hydraulic Engineering) 69, no. 4: I_1813-I_1818.