We determine the potential of forests and the forest sector to mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by changes in management practices and wood use for two regions within Canada’s managed forest from 2018 to 2050. Our modeling frameworks include the Carbon Budget Model of the Canadian Forest Sector, a framework for harvested wood products that estimates emissions based on product half-life decay times, and an account of marginal emission substitution benefits from the changes in use of wood products and bioenergy. Using a spatially explicit forest inventory with 16 ha pixels, we examine mitigation scenarios relating to forest management and wood use: increased harvesting efficiency; residue management for bioenergy; reduced harvest; reduced slashburning, and more longer-lived wood products. The primary reason for the spatially explicit approach at this coarse resolution was to estimate transportation distances associated with delivering harvest residues for heat and/or electricity production for local communities. Results demonstrated large differences among alternative scenarios, and from alternative assumptions about substitution benefits for fossil fuel-based energy and products which changed scenario rankings. Combining forest management activities with a wood-use scenario that generated more longer-lived products had the highest mitigation potential. The use of harvest residues to meet local energy demands in place of burning fossil fuels was found to be an effective scenario to reduce GHG emissions, along with scenarios that increased the utilization level for harvest, and increased the longevity of wood products. Substitution benefits from avoiding fossil fuels or emissions-intensive products were dependent on local circumstances for energy demand and fuel mix, and the assumed wood use for products. As projected future demand for biomass use in national GHG mitigation strategies could exceed sustainable biomass supply, analyses such as this can help identify biomass sources that achieve the greatest mitigation benefits.

Understanding and quantifying carbon (C) exchanges between the biosphere and the atmosphere—specifically the process of C removal from the atmosphere, and how this process is changing—is the basis for developing appropriate adaptation and mitigation strategies for climate change. Monitoring forest systems and reporting on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and removals are now required components of international efforts aimed at mitigating rising atmospheric GHG. Spatially-explicit information about forests can improve the estimates of GHG emissions and removals. However, at present, remotely-sensed information on forest change is not commonly integrated into GHG reporting systems. New, detailed (30-m spatial resolution) forest change products derived from satellite time series informing on location, magnitude, and type of change, at an annual time step, have recently become available. Here we estimate the forest GHG balance using these new Landsat-based change data, a spatial forest inventory, and develop yield curves as inputs to the Carbon Budget Model of the Canadian Forest Sector (CBM-CFS3) to estimate GHG emissions and removals at a 30 m resolution for a 13 Mha pilot area in Saskatchewan, Canada. Our results depict the forests as cumulative C sink (17.98 Tg C or 0.64 Tg C year−1) between 1984 and 2012 with an average C density of 206.5 (±0.6) Mg C ha−1. Comparisons between our estimates and estimates from Canada’s National Forest Carbon Monitoring, Accounting and Reporting System (NFCMARS) were possible only on a subset of our study area. In our simulations the area was a C sink, while the official reporting simulations, it was a C source. Forest area and overall C stock estimates also differ between the two simulated estimates. Both estimates have similar uncertainties, but the spatially-explicit results we present here better quantify the potential improvement brought on by spatially-explicit modelling. We discuss the source of the differences between these estimates. This study represents an important first step towards the integration of spatially-explicit information into Canada’s NFCMARS.

To address how natural disturbance, forest harvest, and deforestation from reservoir creation affect landscape-level carbon (C) budgets, a retrospective C budget for the 8500 ha Sooke Lake Watershed (SLW) from 1911 to 2012 was developed using historical spatial inventory and disturbance data. To simulate forest C dynamics, data was input into a spatially-explicit version of the Carbon Budget Model-Canadian Forest Sector (CBM-CFS3). Transfers of terrestrial C to inland aquatic environments need to be considered to better capture the watershed scale C balance. Using dissolved organic C (DOC) and stream flow measurements from three SLW catchments, DOC load into the reservoir was derived for a 17-year period. C stocks and stock changes between a baseline and two alternative management scenarios were compared to understand the relative impact of successive reservoir expansions and sustained harvest activity over the 100-year period. Dissolved organic C flux for the three catchments ranged from 0.017 to 0.057 Mg C ha−1 year−1. Constraining CBM-CFS3 to observed DOC loads required parameterization of humified soil C losses of 2.5, 5.5, and 6.5%. Scaled to the watershed and assuming none of the exported terrestrial DOC was respired to CO2, we hypothesize that over 100 years up to 30,657 Mg C may have been available for sequestration in sediment. By 2012, deforestation due to reservoir creation/expansion resulted in the watershed forest lands sequestering 14 Mg C ha−1 less than without reservoir expansion. Sustained harvest activity had a substantially greater impact, reducing forest C stores by 93 Mg C ha−1 by 2012. However approximately half of the C exported as merchantable wood during logging (~176,000 Mg C) may remain in harvested wood products, reducing the cumulative impact of forestry activity from 93 to 71 Mg C ha−1. Dissolved organic C flux from temperate forest ecosystems is a small but persistent C flux which may have long term implications for C storage in inland aquatic systems. This is a first step integrating fluvial transport of C into a forest carbon model by parameterizing DOC flux from soil C pools. While deforestation related to successive reservoir expansions did impact the watershed-scale C budget, over multi-decadal time periods, sustained harvest activity was more influential.

Multi-centennial C budgets in forested watersheds require information on forest growth, detritus turnover, and disturbances, as well as the transfer to and fate of terrestrial C in aquatics systems. Here, a sediment gravity core was collected from a drinking water reservoir in Canada, and analyzed for temporal changes in charcoal, magnetic susceptibility, carbon, and nitrogen. These indicators were used to assess disturbance history and terrestrial C sequestration in sediments. During the reservoir development period from 1910 to 2012, charcoal flux and magnetic susceptibility increased ca. 10 years after nearby fire and forest-clearing events associated with reservoir expansion. Total C and δ¹³C gradually declined during the development period, likely due to increased inputs of mineral soil from human activity. Concurrently, total terrestrial C sequestered in sediments, estimated using three or eight marker compounds, ranged between 3557 and 5145 Mg C/100 yrs, accounting for 11%–17% of DOC exports to the reservoir (30,640 Mg C/100 yrs), as estimated from a previously developed terrestrial carbon budget model. In comparison, mixed-severity fires burned around the reservoir during the pre-development period (pre-1910), as evidenced by stand ages and/or increases in charcoal flux. In general, decreased terrestrial C flux was associated with higher-severity fires that burned between 1870 and 1890 and perhaps around 1790. Further, comparisons show that soil erosion was up to 3× greater in the development versus the pre-development period. Overall, this investigation revealed the impact of land use change and fire on watershed carbon budgets and advanced a previously developed pyGC-MS methodology that demonstrated the amount of terrestrial and aquatic C being buried in sediment. It also identified the fraction of terrestrial C that was exported from the forest to the reservoir and sequestered in the sediment, uncommon data that could inform current and future landscape C budget modelling studies in this region.