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Hedwig van Delden
Research Institute for Knowledge Systems Maastricht Netherlands

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Journal article
Published: 24 May 2021 in Earth's Future
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The need for explicitly considering equity in climate change adaptation planning is increasingly being recognized. However, evaluations of adaptation often adopt an aggregated perspective, while disaggregation of results is important to learn about who benefits when and where. A typical example is adaptation of rice agriculture in the Vietnam Mekong Delta. Efforts focused on flood protection have mainly benefitted large‐scale farmers while harming small‐scale farmers. To investigate the distributional consequences of adaptation policies in the Vietnam Mekong Delta, we assess both aggregate total output and equity indicators, as well as disaggregated impacts in terms of district‐level farming profitability. Doing so requires an adequate representation of the multisectoral dynamics between the human and biophysical systems which influence farming profitability. We develop a spatially‐explicit integrated assessment model that couples inundation, sedimentation, soil fertility and nutrient dynamics, and behavioral land‐use change and farming profitability calculation. We find that inter‐district inequality responds in a non‐linear way to climatic and socio‐economic changes and choices of adaptation policies. The patterns of who wins and who loses could change substantially when a different policy is implemented or if a slightly different uncertain future materializes. We also find that there is no simple ranking of alternative adaptation policies, so one should make trade‐offs based on agreed preferences. Accounting for equity implies exploring the distribution of outcomes over different groups over a range of uncertain futures. Only by accounting for multisectoral dynamics can planners anticipate the equity consequences of adaptation and prepare additional measures to aid the worse‐off actors.

ACS Style

Bramka Arga Jafino; Jan H. Kwakkel; Frans Klijn; Nguyen Viet Dung; Hedwig van Delden; Marjolijn Haasnoot; Edwin H. Sutanudjaja. Accounting for Multisectoral Dynamics in Supporting Equitable Adaptation Planning: A Case Study on the Rice Agriculture in the Vietnam Mekong Delta. Earth's Future 2021, 9, 1 .

AMA Style

Bramka Arga Jafino, Jan H. Kwakkel, Frans Klijn, Nguyen Viet Dung, Hedwig van Delden, Marjolijn Haasnoot, Edwin H. Sutanudjaja. Accounting for Multisectoral Dynamics in Supporting Equitable Adaptation Planning: A Case Study on the Rice Agriculture in the Vietnam Mekong Delta. Earth's Future. 2021; 9 (5):1.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Bramka Arga Jafino; Jan H. Kwakkel; Frans Klijn; Nguyen Viet Dung; Hedwig van Delden; Marjolijn Haasnoot; Edwin H. Sutanudjaja. 2021. "Accounting for Multisectoral Dynamics in Supporting Equitable Adaptation Planning: A Case Study on the Rice Agriculture in the Vietnam Mekong Delta." Earth's Future 9, no. 5: 1.

Journal article
Published: 18 January 2021 in Urban Science
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The Group Areas Act of 1950 has resulted in post-apartheid South African cities being characterised by spatial patterns with limited access to social and economic opportunities for the black and coloured population. Typically, high-density low-income housing is located peripherally, while low density high-income housing is located in accessible central areas. With increased rural-to-urban migration, the demand for formal housing has historically surpassed supply, which has increased the growth of informal settlements. Current discourse within South African land use policy suggests that in-situ upgrading of informal housing is a viable response to integrate informal settlements into the formal city. In parallel, it is proposed that new low-income residential areas and employment-generating land uses should be located along transport corridors to improve access to transport, its infrastructure and the opportunities it provides for previously marginalised groups. This study uses Cape Town as a case city to explore two land-use driven development strategies directed at informal settlements and low-income housing. A dynamic land use transport model based on a cellular automata land use model and a four-stage transport model was used to simulate land use and transport changes. Specifically, in-situ upgrading of informal settlements and strategically locating new low-income residential and employment generating land uses along transport corridors were considered. The results from the analysis suggest that in-situ upgrading is a viable option only if new informal settlements are in areas with easy access to economic centres. With regards to low-income housing, targeted interventions aimed at ‘unlocking’ low-income housing activities along transport corridors were found to be useful. However, it was also observed that middle-income residential development and employment generating activities were also attracted to the same corridors, thus, resulting in mixed land uses, which is beneficial but can potentially result in rental bids between low and middle-income earners thus displacing low-income earners away from these areas.

ACS Style

Hazvinei Tsitsi Tamuka Moyo; Mark Zuidgeest; Hedwig Van Delden. Lessons Learned from Applying an Integrated Land Use Transport Planning Model to Address Issues of Social and Economic Exclusion of Marginalised Groups: The Case of Cape Town, South Africa. Urban Science 2021, 5, 10 .

AMA Style

Hazvinei Tsitsi Tamuka Moyo, Mark Zuidgeest, Hedwig Van Delden. Lessons Learned from Applying an Integrated Land Use Transport Planning Model to Address Issues of Social and Economic Exclusion of Marginalised Groups: The Case of Cape Town, South Africa. Urban Science. 2021; 5 (1):10.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Hazvinei Tsitsi Tamuka Moyo; Mark Zuidgeest; Hedwig Van Delden. 2021. "Lessons Learned from Applying an Integrated Land Use Transport Planning Model to Address Issues of Social and Economic Exclusion of Marginalised Groups: The Case of Cape Town, South Africa." Urban Science 5, no. 1: 10.

Review
Published: 11 April 2020 in Science of The Total Environment
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This paper reviews the latest research on scenarios including the processes and products for socio-environmental systems (SES) analysis, modeling and decision making. A group of scenario researchers and practitioners participated in a workshop to discuss consolidation of existing research on the development and use of scenario analysis in exploring and understanding the interplay between human and environmental systems. This paper presents an extended overview of the workshop discussions and follow-up review work. It is structured around the essential challenges that are crucial to progress support of decision making and learning with respect to our highly uncertain socio-environmental futures. It identifies a practical research agenda where challenges are grouped according to the process stage at which they are most significant: before, during, and after the creation of the scenarios as products. These challenges for SES include: enhancing the role of stakeholder and public engagement in the co-development of scenarios, linking scenarios across multiple geographical, sectoral and temporal scales, improving the links between the qualitative and quantitative aspects of scenario analysis, addressing uncertainties especially surprise, addressing scenario diversity and their consistency together, communicating scenarios including visualization methods, and linking scenarios to decision making.

ACS Style

Sondoss Elsawah; Serena H. Hamilton; Anthony J. Jakeman; Dale Rothman; Vanessa Schweizer; Evelina Trutnevyte; Henrik Carlsen; Crystal Drakes; Bob Frame; Baihua Fu; Celine Guivarch; Marjolijn Haasnoot; Eric Kemp-Benedict; Kasper Kok; Hannah Kosow; Mike Ryan; Hedwig van Delden. Scenario processes for socio-environmental systems analysis of futures: A review of recent efforts and a salient research agenda for supporting decision making. Science of The Total Environment 2020, 729, 138393 .

AMA Style

Sondoss Elsawah, Serena H. Hamilton, Anthony J. Jakeman, Dale Rothman, Vanessa Schweizer, Evelina Trutnevyte, Henrik Carlsen, Crystal Drakes, Bob Frame, Baihua Fu, Celine Guivarch, Marjolijn Haasnoot, Eric Kemp-Benedict, Kasper Kok, Hannah Kosow, Mike Ryan, Hedwig van Delden. Scenario processes for socio-environmental systems analysis of futures: A review of recent efforts and a salient research agenda for supporting decision making. Science of The Total Environment. 2020; 729 ():138393.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Sondoss Elsawah; Serena H. Hamilton; Anthony J. Jakeman; Dale Rothman; Vanessa Schweizer; Evelina Trutnevyte; Henrik Carlsen; Crystal Drakes; Bob Frame; Baihua Fu; Celine Guivarch; Marjolijn Haasnoot; Eric Kemp-Benedict; Kasper Kok; Hannah Kosow; Mike Ryan; Hedwig van Delden. 2020. "Scenario processes for socio-environmental systems analysis of futures: A review of recent efforts and a salient research agenda for supporting decision making." Science of The Total Environment 729, no. : 138393.

Journal article
Published: 06 December 2019 in International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction
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Disaster risk is a complex, uncertain and evolving threat to society which changes based on broad drivers of hazard, exposure and vulnerability such as population, economic and climatic change, along with new technologies and social preferences. It also evolves as a function of decisions of public policy and public/private investment which alters future risk profiles. These factors however are often not captured within disaster risk assessments and explicitly excluded from the UN General Assembly definition of a disaster risk assessment which focuses on the current state of risk. This means that 1) we cannot adequately capture changes in risk and risk assessments are out of date as soon as published but also 2) we cannot show the benefit of proactive risk treatments in our risk assessments. This paper therefore outlines a generic, scale-neutral, framework for integrating foresight – thinking about the future – into risk assessment methodologies. This is demonstrated by its application to a disaster risk assessment of heatwave risk in Tasmania, Australia, and shows how risk changes across three future scenarios and what proactive treatments could be possible mitigating the identified drivers of future risk.

ACS Style

Graeme A. Riddell; Hedwig van Delden; Holger R. Maier; Aaron C. Zecchin. Tomorrow's disasters – Embedding foresight principles into disaster risk assessment and treatment. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction 2019, 45, 101437 .

AMA Style

Graeme A. Riddell, Hedwig van Delden, Holger R. Maier, Aaron C. Zecchin. Tomorrow's disasters – Embedding foresight principles into disaster risk assessment and treatment. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction. 2019; 45 ():101437.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Graeme A. Riddell; Hedwig van Delden; Holger R. Maier; Aaron C. Zecchin. 2019. "Tomorrow's disasters – Embedding foresight principles into disaster risk assessment and treatment." International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction 45, no. : 101437.

Journal article
Published: 01 November 2019 in Computers, Environment and Urban Systems
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ACS Style

David García-Álvarez; Christopher D. Lloyd; Hedwig van Delden; María Teresa Camacho Olmedo. Thematic resolution influence in spatial analysis. An application to Land Use Cover Change (LUCC) modelling calibration. Computers, Environment and Urban Systems 2019, 78, 1 .

AMA Style

David García-Álvarez, Christopher D. Lloyd, Hedwig van Delden, María Teresa Camacho Olmedo. Thematic resolution influence in spatial analysis. An application to Land Use Cover Change (LUCC) modelling calibration. Computers, Environment and Urban Systems. 2019; 78 ():1.

Chicago/Turabian Style

David García-Álvarez; Christopher D. Lloyd; Hedwig van Delden; María Teresa Camacho Olmedo. 2019. "Thematic resolution influence in spatial analysis. An application to Land Use Cover Change (LUCC) modelling calibration." Computers, Environment and Urban Systems 78, no. : 1.

Journal article
Published: 04 July 2019 in International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction
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Disaster risk is a combination of natural hazards, along with society's exposure and vulnerability to them. Therefore, to ensure effective, long-term disaster risk reduction we must consider the dynamics of each of these components and how they change over extended periods due to population, economic and climatic drivers, as well as policy and individual decisions. This paper provides a methodology to capture these factors within exploratory scenarios designed to test the effectiveness of policy responses to reduce disaster losses. The scenarios developed and subsequent analysis of them combine knowledge and insight from stakeholders and experts, and make use of simulation modelling to enable scenarios with qualitative and quantitative elements to be integrated within risk assessment processes and contribute to strategic risk treatments. The methodology was applied to a case-study in Greater Adelaide, Australia, and used to assess how disaster risk for earthquakes, bushfire and coastal inundation changes from 2016 to 2050 under five exploratory scenarios for the future of the region. This analysis can be applied more broadly to consider how future risks impacts on regional viability, and suitability for investment related to the need to gain a better understanding of governmental and organisational exposure to physical risks.

ACS Style

Graeme A. Riddell; Hedwig van Delden; Holger R. Maier; Aaron C. Zecchin. Exploratory scenario analysis for disaster risk reduction: Considering alternative pathways in disaster risk assessment. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction 2019, 39, 101230 .

AMA Style

Graeme A. Riddell, Hedwig van Delden, Holger R. Maier, Aaron C. Zecchin. Exploratory scenario analysis for disaster risk reduction: Considering alternative pathways in disaster risk assessment. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction. 2019; 39 ():101230.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Graeme A. Riddell; Hedwig van Delden; Holger R. Maier; Aaron C. Zecchin. 2019. "Exploratory scenario analysis for disaster risk reduction: Considering alternative pathways in disaster risk assessment." International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction 39, no. : 101230.

Journal article
Published: 26 November 2018 in Sustainability
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Only a few studies have quantified and measured ecosystem services (ES) specifically related to soil. To address this gap, we have developed and applied a methodology to assess changes in ecosystem services, based on measured or estimated soil property changes that were stimulated by soil management measures (e.g., mulching, terracing, no-till). We applied the ES assessment methodology in 16 case study sites across Europe representing a high diversity of soil threats and land use systems. Various prevention and remediation measures were trialled, and the changes in manageable soil and other natural capital properties were measured and quantified. An Excel tool facilitated data collection, calculation of changes in ecosystem services, and visualization of measured short-term changes and estimated long-term changes at plot level and for the wider area. With this methodology, we were able to successfully collect and compare data on the impact of land management on 15 different ecosystem services from 26 different measures. Overall, the results are positive in terms of the impacts of the trialled measures on ecosystem services, with 18 out of 26 measures having no decrease in any service at the plot level. Although methodological challenges remain, the ES assessment was shown to be a comprehensive evaluation of the impacts of the trialled measures, and also served as an input to a stakeholder valuation of ecosystem services at local and sub-national levels.

ACS Style

Gudrun Schwilch; Tatenda Lemann; Örjan Berglund; Carlo Camarotto; Artemi Cerdà; Ioannis Daliakopoulos; Silvia Kohnová; Dominika Krzeminska; Teodoro Marañón; René Rietra; Grzegorz Siebielec; Johann Thorsson; Mark Tibbett; Sandra Valente; Hedwig Van Delden; Jan Van Den Akker; Simone Verzandvoort; Nicoleta Vrînceanu; Christos Zoumides; Rudi Hessel. Assessing Impacts of Soil Management Measures on Ecosystem Services. Sustainability 2018, 10, 4416 .

AMA Style

Gudrun Schwilch, Tatenda Lemann, Örjan Berglund, Carlo Camarotto, Artemi Cerdà, Ioannis Daliakopoulos, Silvia Kohnová, Dominika Krzeminska, Teodoro Marañón, René Rietra, Grzegorz Siebielec, Johann Thorsson, Mark Tibbett, Sandra Valente, Hedwig Van Delden, Jan Van Den Akker, Simone Verzandvoort, Nicoleta Vrînceanu, Christos Zoumides, Rudi Hessel. Assessing Impacts of Soil Management Measures on Ecosystem Services. Sustainability. 2018; 10 (12):4416.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Gudrun Schwilch; Tatenda Lemann; Örjan Berglund; Carlo Camarotto; Artemi Cerdà; Ioannis Daliakopoulos; Silvia Kohnová; Dominika Krzeminska; Teodoro Marañón; René Rietra; Grzegorz Siebielec; Johann Thorsson; Mark Tibbett; Sandra Valente; Hedwig Van Delden; Jan Van Den Akker; Simone Verzandvoort; Nicoleta Vrînceanu; Christos Zoumides; Rudi Hessel. 2018. "Assessing Impacts of Soil Management Measures on Ecosystem Services." Sustainability 10, no. 12: 4416.

Journal article
Published: 23 August 2018 in Ecosystem Services
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Essential environmental resources are rapidly exploited globally, while social-ecological systems at different scales fail to meet sustainable development challenges. Ecosystem services research, which at present predominantly utilizes static modelling approaches, needs better integration with socio-economic dynamics in order to assist a scientific approach to sustainability. This article focuses on Brownfield lands, a unique landscape that is undergoing transformations and provides ecosystem services that remain, at this point in time, mostly unrecognized in public discourse. We discuss the main issues associated with current modelling and valuation approaches and formulate an ecosystem-based integrated redevelopment workflow applied to the assessment of Brownfield redevelopment options.

ACS Style

B.W. Kolosz; I.N. Athanasiadis; G. Cadisch; Terence Dawson; C. Giupponi; M. Honzák; J. Martinez-Lopez; A. Marvuglia; V. Mojtahed; K.B.Z. Ogutu; Hedwig van Delden; F. Villa; S. Balbi. Conceptual advancement of socio-ecological modelling of ecosystem services for re-evaluating Brownfield land. Ecosystem Services 2018, 33, 29 -39.

AMA Style

B.W. Kolosz, I.N. Athanasiadis, G. Cadisch, Terence Dawson, C. Giupponi, M. Honzák, J. Martinez-Lopez, A. Marvuglia, V. Mojtahed, K.B.Z. Ogutu, Hedwig van Delden, F. Villa, S. Balbi. Conceptual advancement of socio-ecological modelling of ecosystem services for re-evaluating Brownfield land. Ecosystem Services. 2018; 33 ():29-39.

Chicago/Turabian Style

B.W. Kolosz; I.N. Athanasiadis; G. Cadisch; Terence Dawson; C. Giupponi; M. Honzák; J. Martinez-Lopez; A. Marvuglia; V. Mojtahed; K.B.Z. Ogutu; Hedwig van Delden; F. Villa; S. Balbi. 2018. "Conceptual advancement of socio-ecological modelling of ecosystem services for re-evaluating Brownfield land." Ecosystem Services 33, no. : 29-39.

Journal article
Published: 22 August 2018 in Computers, Environment and Urban Systems
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Economics, demographics, land use change, and transport interact in complex and dynamic ways. To inform urban policy decision-making it is important to develop tools that incorporate the interactions of these systems in meaningful ways. Historically, models of these systems have been developed in isolation, and many agencies have already invested large amounts of time and money into developing these independent models. It is thus often desirable to couple existing models, rather than to develop a completely new integrated model. Coupling together independently developed models introduces many challenges including dealing with different spatial and temporal scales, base datasets and levels of aggregation, as well as bringing up deeper questions around the underlying paradigms, assumptions and limitations of the models. This paper describes the key challenges encountered when coupling an existing integrated model of land use change, economic activity, and population (the ‘Integrated Scenario Explorer’ model) with an existing transport model (the ‘Wellington Transport Strategy Model’) for the Wellington region in New Zealand. The case study results show that the coupling produces substantial differences in the urban land use change looking forward to 2041, specifically it affects the location of the urban intensification. The paper summarises the important considerations for modellers when coupling independently developed models, highlights the importance of understanding the underlying theories of the component models, and emphasises the need to develop pragmatic solutions that are guided by the intended use of the resulting integrated model.

ACS Style

Emily P. Harvey; Robert C. Cardwell; Garry McDonald; Hedwig van Delden; Roel Vanhout; Nicola J. Smith; Joon-Hwan Kim; Vicky E. Forgie; Marjan Van Den Belt. Developing integrated models by coupling together existing models; land use, economics, demographics and transport in Wellington, New Zealand. Computers, Environment and Urban Systems 2018, 74, 100 -113.

AMA Style

Emily P. Harvey, Robert C. Cardwell, Garry McDonald, Hedwig van Delden, Roel Vanhout, Nicola J. Smith, Joon-Hwan Kim, Vicky E. Forgie, Marjan Van Den Belt. Developing integrated models by coupling together existing models; land use, economics, demographics and transport in Wellington, New Zealand. Computers, Environment and Urban Systems. 2018; 74 ():100-113.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Emily P. Harvey; Robert C. Cardwell; Garry McDonald; Hedwig van Delden; Roel Vanhout; Nicola J. Smith; Joon-Hwan Kim; Vicky E. Forgie; Marjan Van Den Belt. 2018. "Developing integrated models by coupling together existing models; land use, economics, demographics and transport in Wellington, New Zealand." Computers, Environment and Urban Systems 74, no. : 100-113.

Journal article
Published: 28 July 2018 in Environmental Modelling & Software
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Land-use change models generally include neighbourhood rules to capture the spatial dynamics between different land-uses that drive land-use changes, introducing many parameters that require calibration. We present a process-specific semi-automatic method for calibrating neighbourhood rules that utilises discursive knowledge and empirical analysis to reduce the complexity of the calibration problem, and efficiently calibrates the remaining interactions with consideration of locational agreement and landscape pattern structure objectives. The approach and software for implementing it are tested on four case studies of major European cities with different physical characteristics and rates of urban growth, exploring preferences for different objectives. The approach outperformed benchmark models for both calibration and validation when a balanced objective preference was used. This research demonstrates the utility of process-specific calibration methods, and highlights how process knowledge can be integrated with automatic calibration to make it more efficient.

ACS Style

Charles P. Newland; Aaron C. Zecchin; Holger R. Maier; Jeffrey P. Newman; Hedwig van Delden. Empirically derived method and software for semi-automatic calibration of Cellular Automata land-use models. Environmental Modelling & Software 2018, 108, 208 -239.

AMA Style

Charles P. Newland, Aaron C. Zecchin, Holger R. Maier, Jeffrey P. Newman, Hedwig van Delden. Empirically derived method and software for semi-automatic calibration of Cellular Automata land-use models. Environmental Modelling & Software. 2018; 108 ():208-239.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Charles P. Newland; Aaron C. Zecchin; Holger R. Maier; Jeffrey P. Newman; Hedwig van Delden. 2018. "Empirically derived method and software for semi-automatic calibration of Cellular Automata land-use models." Environmental Modelling & Software 108, no. : 208-239.

Research article
Published: 31 May 2018 in Landscape Ecology
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Traditionally soils have not received much attention in urban planning. For this, tools are needed that can both be understood both by soil scientists and urban planners. The purpose of this paper is to enhance the role of soil knowledge in urban planning practice, through the following objectives: (1) identifying the role soil plays in recent urban plans; (2) analysing the ecosystem services and indicators used in soil science in an urban context; and (3) inferring the main challenges and opportunities to integrate soil into urban planning. Seven urban plans and reports of world cities that include sustainability goals were analysed using text-mining and qualitative analysis, with a critical view on the inclusion of soil-related concepts. Secondly, the contribution of soil science to urban planning was assessed with an overview of case studies in the past decade that focus on soil-related ecosystem services in urban context. The results show an overall weak attention to soil and soil-related ecosystem services in the implementation and monitoring phases of urban plans. The majority of soil science case studies uses a haphazard approach to measure ecosystem service indicators which may not capture the ecosystem services appropriately and hence lack relevance for urban planning. Even though the most urban plans assessed recognize soil as a key resource, most of them fail to integrate indicators to measure or monitor soil-related functions. There is a need to develop soil-related ecosystem services that can be easily integrated and understood by other fields.

ACS Style

Ricardo Teixeira Da Silva; Luuk Fleskens; Hedwig Van Delden; Martine Van Der Ploeg. Incorporating soil ecosystem services into urban planning: status, challenges and opportunities. Landscape Ecology 2018, 33, 1087 -1102.

AMA Style

Ricardo Teixeira Da Silva, Luuk Fleskens, Hedwig Van Delden, Martine Van Der Ploeg. Incorporating soil ecosystem services into urban planning: status, challenges and opportunities. Landscape Ecology. 2018; 33 (7):1087-1102.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Ricardo Teixeira Da Silva; Luuk Fleskens; Hedwig Van Delden; Martine Van Der Ploeg. 2018. "Incorporating soil ecosystem services into urban planning: status, challenges and opportunities." Landscape Ecology 33, no. 7: 1087-1102.

Journal article
Published: 01 May 2018 in Futures
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Exploratory scenarios (i.e. scenarios that question what could happen) have been widely applied to a vast array of complex and uncertain socio-environmental system problems. Despite this fact, they have also been criticised by policy makers for not being relevant to policy processes and assessment. This paper proposes a generic approach to enhance policy relevance in the development of exploratory scenarios. This is carried out by participatory exploration and categorisation of available policy responses and framing of scenarios in terms of challenges to these. An exploration of the factors that make these policies more or less effective is used to develop a narrative for temporal developments in scenario instantiation, in comparison to more generic drivers for change. Within this paper, this process is applied to a case-study exploring the future of natural disaster risk; improving understanding of future uncertainties and subsequently the effectiveness of long-term disaster risk reduction. The case-study application consider bushfire, earthquake, flooding and heatwaves and resulted in five scenarios framed on challenges to resilience and challenges to mitigation for policy makers in Adelaide, Australia.

ACS Style

Graeme Riddell; Hedwig Van Delden; Graeme C. Dandy; Aaron Zecchin; Holger R. Maier. Enhancing the policy relevance of exploratory scenarios: Generic approach and application to disaster risk reduction. Futures 2018, 99, 1 -15.

AMA Style

Graeme Riddell, Hedwig Van Delden, Graeme C. Dandy, Aaron Zecchin, Holger R. Maier. Enhancing the policy relevance of exploratory scenarios: Generic approach and application to disaster risk reduction. Futures. 2018; 99 ():1-15.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Graeme Riddell; Hedwig Van Delden; Graeme C. Dandy; Aaron Zecchin; Holger R. Maier. 2018. "Enhancing the policy relevance of exploratory scenarios: Generic approach and application to disaster risk reduction." Futures 99, no. : 1-15.

Journal article
Published: 01 February 2018 in Environmental Modelling & Software
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ACS Style

Charles P. Newland; Holger R. Maier; Aaron C. Zecchin; Jeffrey P. Newman; Hedwig van Delden. Multi-objective optimisation framework for calibration of Cellular Automata land-use models. Environmental Modelling & Software 2018, 100, 175 -200.

AMA Style

Charles P. Newland, Holger R. Maier, Aaron C. Zecchin, Jeffrey P. Newman, Hedwig van Delden. Multi-objective optimisation framework for calibration of Cellular Automata land-use models. Environmental Modelling & Software. 2018; 100 ():175-200.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Charles P. Newland; Holger R. Maier; Aaron C. Zecchin; Jeffrey P. Newman; Hedwig van Delden. 2018. "Multi-objective optimisation framework for calibration of Cellular Automata land-use models." Environmental Modelling & Software 100, no. : 175-200.

Journal article
Published: 28 December 2017 in Sustainability
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In this study, environmental sustainability implications of planned rail infrastructure investments on the urban form and development in the Greater Dublin Region (GDR) have been analysed incorporating the scenario analysis approach. Various scenarios are developed using the MOLAND Model applications including: A baseline scenario incorporating a continuation of the present dispersed pattern of urban development and an alternative scenario with rail-oriented corridor development, under varying conditions of economic growth. An alternative scenario was also developed for the recessionary development case considering the prolonged recession in the GDR. Further explorations incorporating a Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) approach are developed to evaluate the sustainability implications of different land development scenarios in the Dublin Region. This is assisted by focussing on the impacts of rail investments on urban form and development as raised in the international comparative literature. The findings from the CBA assessment positively indicate that containment policies-as represented by the public transport oriented development indicate benefits over the dispersed development case by reducing the negative consequences of sprawl type of developments. In contrast, dispersed development in the baseline scenario indicates costs of continuation of such development patterns exceed the benefits in the long term. This study will contribute to policy support evaluation measures relating to the integration of scenario analysis tool with the CBA approach in assisting the evaluation of new transport infrastructure proposals.

ACS Style

Eda Ustaoglu; Brendan Williams; Laura O. Petrov; Harutyun Shahumyan; Hedwig Van Delden. Developing and Assessing Alternative Land-Use Scenarios from the MOLAND Model: A Scenario-Based Impact Analysis Approach for the Evaluation of Rapid Rail Provisions and Urban Development in the Greater Dublin Region. Sustainability 2017, 10, 61 .

AMA Style

Eda Ustaoglu, Brendan Williams, Laura O. Petrov, Harutyun Shahumyan, Hedwig Van Delden. Developing and Assessing Alternative Land-Use Scenarios from the MOLAND Model: A Scenario-Based Impact Analysis Approach for the Evaluation of Rapid Rail Provisions and Urban Development in the Greater Dublin Region. Sustainability. 2017; 10 (2):61.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Eda Ustaoglu; Brendan Williams; Laura O. Petrov; Harutyun Shahumyan; Hedwig Van Delden. 2017. "Developing and Assessing Alternative Land-Use Scenarios from the MOLAND Model: A Scenario-Based Impact Analysis Approach for the Evaluation of Rapid Rail Provisions and Urban Development in the Greater Dublin Region." Sustainability 10, no. 2: 61.

Chapter
Published: 28 October 2017 in Lecture Notes in Geoinformation and Cartography
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Metronamica is a generic and spatially explicit land use modelling framework integrating various drivers and processes relevant for understanding and assessing land use dynamics. As a decision support system, it lets users evaluate spatial planning and infrastructure development policy interventions and provides results in the form of spatial and non-spatial policy relevant indicators. With over a hundred applications worldwide it has demonstrated that the simulation of universal concepts can be tuned to local contexts across the world to cater for very different socio-economic, environmental and governance conditions. The full framework comprises a suite of components like land use, population dynamics, economics and transport, as well as powerful tailored data processing and analysis tools, which can be turned on or off based on the scale and purpose of the application. Metronamica components have been integrated into various tailor-made integrated models and have been enhanced to better represent the multifunctionality of our land, as well as the management and intensity of its use. Its wide user group has benefitted from its ongoing development, by highlighting scientific challenges and providing feedback on its usefulness and user-friendliness.

ACS Style

H. van Delden; R. Vanhout. A Short Presentation of Metronamica. Lecture Notes in Geoinformation and Cartography 2017, 511 -519.

AMA Style

H. van Delden, R. Vanhout. A Short Presentation of Metronamica. Lecture Notes in Geoinformation and Cartography. 2017; ():511-519.

Chicago/Turabian Style

H. van Delden; R. Vanhout. 2017. "A Short Presentation of Metronamica." Lecture Notes in Geoinformation and Cartography , no. : 511-519.

Review
Published: 01 October 2017 in Environmental Modelling & Software
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ACS Style

Jeffrey Peter Newman; Holger Maier; Graeme Riddell; Aaron Zecchin; James Edward Daniell; Andreas Maximilian Schaefer; Hedwig van Delden; Bijan Khazai; Michael John O'Flaherty; Charles Peter Newland. Review of literature on decision support systems for natural hazard risk reduction: Current status and future research directions. Environmental Modelling & Software 2017, 96, 378 -409.

AMA Style

Jeffrey Peter Newman, Holger Maier, Graeme Riddell, Aaron Zecchin, James Edward Daniell, Andreas Maximilian Schaefer, Hedwig van Delden, Bijan Khazai, Michael John O'Flaherty, Charles Peter Newland. Review of literature on decision support systems for natural hazard risk reduction: Current status and future research directions. Environmental Modelling & Software. 2017; 96 ():378-409.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Jeffrey Peter Newman; Holger Maier; Graeme Riddell; Aaron Zecchin; James Edward Daniell; Andreas Maximilian Schaefer; Hedwig van Delden; Bijan Khazai; Michael John O'Flaherty; Charles Peter Newland. 2017. "Review of literature on decision support systems for natural hazard risk reduction: Current status and future research directions." Environmental Modelling & Software 96, no. : 378-409.

Journal article
Published: 22 August 2017 in Restoration Ecology
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This article differentiates between descriptive and explanatory factors to develop a typology and a theory of stakeholder and public engagement. The typology describes different types of public and stakeholder engagement, and the theory comprises four factors that explain much of the variation in outcomes (for the natural environment and/or for participants) between different types of engagement. First, we use a narrative literature search to develop a new typology of stakeholder and public engagement based on agency (who initiates and leads engagement) and mode of engagement (from communication to coproduction). We then propose a theory to explain the variation in outcomes from different types of engagement: (1) a number of socioeconomic, cultural, and institutional contextual factors influence the outcomes of engagement; (2) there are a number of process design factors that can increase the likelihood that engagement leads to desired outcomes, across a wide range of sociocultural, political, economic, and biophysical contexts; (3) the effectiveness of engagement is significantly influenced by power dynamics, the values of participants, and their epistemologies, that is, the way they construct knowledge and which types of knowledge they consider valid; and (4) engagement processes work differently and can lead to different outcomes when they operate over different spatial and temporal scales. We use the theoretical framework to provide practical guidance for those designing engagement processes, arguing that a theoretically informed approach to stakeholder and public engagement has the potential to markedly improve the outcomes of environmental decision-making processes.

ACS Style

Mark S. Reed; Steven Vella; Edward Challies; Joris De Vente; Lynne Frewer; Daniela Hohenwallner-Ries; Tobias Huber; Rosmarie K. Neumann; Elizabeth A. Oughton; Julian Sidoli Del Ceno; Hedwig van Delden. A theory of participation: what makes stakeholder and public engagement in environmental management work? Restoration Ecology 2017, 26, S7 -S17.

AMA Style

Mark S. Reed, Steven Vella, Edward Challies, Joris De Vente, Lynne Frewer, Daniela Hohenwallner-Ries, Tobias Huber, Rosmarie K. Neumann, Elizabeth A. Oughton, Julian Sidoli Del Ceno, Hedwig van Delden. A theory of participation: what makes stakeholder and public engagement in environmental management work? Restoration Ecology. 2017; 26 ():S7-S17.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Mark S. Reed; Steven Vella; Edward Challies; Joris De Vente; Lynne Frewer; Daniela Hohenwallner-Ries; Tobias Huber; Rosmarie K. Neumann; Elizabeth A. Oughton; Julian Sidoli Del Ceno; Hedwig van Delden. 2017. "A theory of participation: what makes stakeholder and public engagement in environmental management work?" Restoration Ecology 26, no. : S7-S17.

Journal article
Published: 01 July 2017 in Environmental Modelling & Software
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Similar to other modelling methodologies, the potential of system dynamics to contribute to system understanding and decision making depends upon the practices applied by the modeller. However lessons about many of these practices are often unreported. This paper contributes to the methodology of system dynamics modelling of socio-ecological systems by 1) examining issues modellers face during the modelling process, and 2) providing guidance on how to effectively design and implement system dynamics modelling. This is achieved through an investigation of five case studies, drawing on lessons from these experiences. This is complemented by a literature review of system dynamics applied within the context of integrated modelling and environmental DSS. The case studies cover a variety of environmental issues and system dynamics modelling methods and tools. Although we used system dynamics as the common lens from which lessons are drawn, many of these insights transcend to other integrated modelling approaches.

ACS Style

Sondoss Elsawah; Suzanne A Pierce; Serena H. Hamilton; Hedwig van Delden; Dagmar Haase; Amgad Elmahdi; Anthony J. Jakeman. An overview of the system dynamics process for integrated modelling of socio-ecological systems: Lessons on good modelling practice from five case studies. Environmental Modelling & Software 2017, 93, 127 -145.

AMA Style

Sondoss Elsawah, Suzanne A Pierce, Serena H. Hamilton, Hedwig van Delden, Dagmar Haase, Amgad Elmahdi, Anthony J. Jakeman. An overview of the system dynamics process for integrated modelling of socio-ecological systems: Lessons on good modelling practice from five case studies. Environmental Modelling & Software. 2017; 93 ():127-145.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Sondoss Elsawah; Suzanne A Pierce; Serena H. Hamilton; Hedwig van Delden; Dagmar Haase; Amgad Elmahdi; Anthony J. Jakeman. 2017. "An overview of the system dynamics process for integrated modelling of socio-ecological systems: Lessons on good modelling practice from five case studies." Environmental Modelling & Software 93, no. : 127-145.

Review
Published: 01 August 2016 in Environmental Modelling & Software
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Land-change models are increasingly used to explore land-change dynamics, as well as for policy analyses and scenario studies. In this paper we review calibration and validation approaches adopted for recently published applications of land-change models. We found that statistical analyses and automated procedures are the two most common calibration approaches, while expert knowledge, manual calibration, and transfer of parameters from other applications are less frequently used. Validation of model results is predominantly based on locational accuracy assessment, while a small fraction of the applications assessed the accuracy of the generated land-use or land-cover patterns. Of the reviewed model applications, thirty-one percent did not report any validation. We argue that to mature as a scientific tool, and to gain credibility for scenario studies and policy assessments, the validation of land-change models requires consideration of challenges posed by uncertainty, complexity, and non-stationarity of land-change processes, and equifinality and multifinality of land-change models.

ACS Style

Jasper Van Vliet; Arnold K. Bregt; Daniel G. Brown; Hedwig van Delden; Scott Heckbert; Peter Verburg. A review of current calibration and validation practices in land-change modeling. Environmental Modelling & Software 2016, 82, 174 -182.

AMA Style

Jasper Van Vliet, Arnold K. Bregt, Daniel G. Brown, Hedwig van Delden, Scott Heckbert, Peter Verburg. A review of current calibration and validation practices in land-change modeling. Environmental Modelling & Software. 2016; 82 ():174-182.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Jasper Van Vliet; Arnold K. Bregt; Daniel G. Brown; Hedwig van Delden; Scott Heckbert; Peter Verburg. 2016. "A review of current calibration and validation practices in land-change modeling." Environmental Modelling & Software 82, no. : 174-182.

Journal article
Published: 01 August 2016 in Ecological Indicators
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Despite numerous research efforts over the last decades, integrating the concept of ecosystem services into land management decision-making continues to pose considerable challenges. Researchers have developed many different frameworks to operationalize the concept, but these are often specific to a certain issue and each has their own definitions and understandings of particular terms. Based on a comprehensive review of the current scientific debate, the EU FP7 project RECARE proposes an adapted framework for soil-related ecosystem services that is suited for practical application in the prevention and remediation of soil degradation across Europe. We have adapted existing frameworks by integrating components from soil science while attempting to introduce a consistent terminology that is understandable to a variety of stakeholders. RECARE aims to assess how soil threats and prevention and remediation measures affect ecosystem services. Changes in the natural capital's properties influence soil processes, which support the provision of ecosystem services. The benefits produced by these ecosystem services are explicitly or implicitly valued by individuals and society. This can influence decision- and policymaking at different scales, potentially leading to a societal response, such as improved land management. The proposed ecosystem services framework will be applied by the RECARE project in a transdisciplinary process. It will assist in singling out the most beneficial land management measures and in identifying trade-offs and win–win situations resulting from and impacted by European policies. The framework thus reflects the specific contributions soils make to ecosystem services and helps reveal changes in ecosystem services caused by soil management and policies impacting on soil. At the same time, the framework is simple and robust enough for practical application in assessing soil threats and their management with stakeholders at various levels.

ACS Style

Gudrun Schwilch; Lea Bernet; Luuk Fleskens; Elias Giannakis; Julia Leventon; Teodoro Marañón; Jane Mills; Chris Short; Jannes Stolte; Hedwig van Delden; Simone Verzandvoort. Operationalizing ecosystem services for the mitigation of soil threats: A proposed framework. Ecological Indicators 2016, 67, 586 -597.

AMA Style

Gudrun Schwilch, Lea Bernet, Luuk Fleskens, Elias Giannakis, Julia Leventon, Teodoro Marañón, Jane Mills, Chris Short, Jannes Stolte, Hedwig van Delden, Simone Verzandvoort. Operationalizing ecosystem services for the mitigation of soil threats: A proposed framework. Ecological Indicators. 2016; 67 ():586-597.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Gudrun Schwilch; Lea Bernet; Luuk Fleskens; Elias Giannakis; Julia Leventon; Teodoro Marañón; Jane Mills; Chris Short; Jannes Stolte; Hedwig van Delden; Simone Verzandvoort. 2016. "Operationalizing ecosystem services for the mitigation of soil threats: A proposed framework." Ecological Indicators 67, no. : 586-597.