Kemal Yavuz

Dr. Kemal Yavuz


Research Focus & Metrics

Academic Career Length

2Years (2025-Present)

(Calculated once Scilit publication data is synced: current year − year of first publication + 1)

Representative Publications

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16 December 2025 in Sustainability
Verified
Journal Article
Open access
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ÖDÖzlem Ülger Danacı
Özlem Ülger Danacı
EGEmrah Gökkaya
Emrah Gökkaya
KYKemal Yavuz
Kemal Yavuz
ÖDÖmer Demirbilek
Ömer Demirbilek
This study examines the macroeconomic impacts of major earthquakes in Türkiye using annual data from 1990 to 2023. Despite growing global interest in disaster economics, evidence on how large seismic events shape national economic performance over extended periods remains limited, particularly in emerging economies. Using data from the World Bank, the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye, and the Disaster and Emergency Management Authority, the analysis incorporates real gross domestic product, gross fixed capital formation, consumer prices, and export capacity. A dummy variable identifies years with high-fatality earthquakes. After confirming stationarity, Johansen cointegration and a Vector Error Correction Model were applied. Results indicate that earthquakes exert a statistically significant negative influence on long-term economic growth. Based on the log-level specification, the long-run equilibrium level of real gross domestic product in earthquake years is approximately 45 percent lower than in non-earthquake years. Investment, price stability, and trade capacity support long-term growth. Model diagnostics confirm stability, normality, and no autocorrelation. These findings highlight the structural economic vulnerabilities created by major earthquakes and underscore that disaster risk reduction and resilient infrastructure policies must be integral components of sustainable growth strategies. The study contributes updated national time-series evidence from a structurally fragile context.

6 November 2026 in Disability & Society
Verified
Journal Article
Closed access
BGBüşra Yüksel Güngör
Büşra Yüksel Güngör
KYKemal Yavuz
Kemal Yavuz