The advantage of using specified substitution analysis in nutritional epidemiology has been clearly demonstrated in studies of macronutrient intake and disease risk. However, the method has not been widely applied in studies of food intake. The aim of this article is to describe and compare the interpretation and application of different food substitution models in epidemiologic studies on diet and disease development. Both theoretically and in the context of a specific example, we discuss methodologic issues to be considered, including modeling of food substitutions using diet at a single time point or at multiple time points (focusing on dietary changes), choice of substitution unit, adjustment for total energy intake, and adjustment for confounding. We argue that specified food substitution analyses can be used to identify optimal food composition of the diet and that these analyses are thus highly relevant to inform public health policy decision makers.

Background: Potatoes have been related to increased risks of obesity, type 2 diabetes (T2D), and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mainly because of their high glycemic index.

Background and Purpose: We investigated the association between adherence to the EAT-Lancet diet, a sustainable and mostly plant-based diet, and risk of stroke and subtypes of stroke in a Danish population. For comparison, we also investigated the Alternate Healthy Eating Index-2010 (AHEI). Methods: We used the Danish Diet, Cancer and Health cohort (n=55 016) including adults aged 50 to 64 years at baseline (1993–1997). A food frequency questionnaire was used to assess dietary intake and group participants according to adherence to the diets. Stroke cases were identified using a national registry and subsequently validated by review of medical records (n=2253). Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate hazard ratios and 95% CIs for associations with the EAT-Lancet diet or the AHEI and risk of stroke and stroke subtypes. Results: Adherence to the EAT-Lancet diet was associated with a lower risk of stroke, although not statistically significant (highest versus lowest adherence: hazard ratio, 0.91 [95% CI, 0.76–1.09]). A lower risk was observed for AHEI (0.75 [95% CI, 0.64–0.87]). For stroke subtypes, we found that adherence to the EAT-Lancet diet was associated with a lower risk of subarachnoid hemorrhage (0.30 [95% CI, 0.12–0.73]), and the AHEI was associated with a lower risk of ischemic stroke (0.76 [95% CI, 0.64–0.90]) and intracerebral hemorrhage (0.58 [95% CI, 0.36–0.93]). Conclusions: Adherence to the EAT-Lancet diet in midlife was associated with a lower risk of subarachnoid stroke, and the AHEI was associated with a lower risk of total stroke, mainly ischemic stroke and intracerebral hemorrhage.

It is unknown whether the association between ultra-processed food (UPF) intake and type 2 diabetes mellitus differs from other degrees of food processing. We examined the association between degree of food processing and incident type 2 diabetes mellitus. This was a prospective cohort analysis of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC). Dietary intake was assessed at baseline using dietary questionnaires and classified according to the Nova classification into unprocessed/minimally processed food (MPF), processed culinary ingredients (PCI), processed food (PF) and UPF. Type 2 diabetes mellitus cases were verified through multiple methods. Cox regression and statistical substitution analysis was used to estimate associations between MPF + PCI, PF and UPF intake and incident type 2 diabetes mellitus. To investigate heterogeneity in the association between UPF and incident type 2 diabetes mellitus, UPF sub-group analysis was conducted. Different reference groups were used in each analysis. Over an average 10.9 years follow-up of 311,892 individuals, 14,236 type 2 diabetes mellitus cases were identified. Each 10% increment of total daily food intake from UPF (%g/day) was associated with 17% (95% confidence interval (95%CI): 1.14–1.19) higher incident type 2 diabetes mellitus. Each 10% increment in MPF + PCI or PF intake was associated with lower incident type 2 diabetes mellitus (MPF + PCI hazard ratio: 0.94 (95%CI: 0.92–0.96); PF hazard ratio: 0.92 (95%CI: 0.89–0.95)). Replacing UPF with MPF + PCI or PF was associated with lower incident type 2 diabetes mellitus. However, heterogeneity was observed across UPF sub-groups, with breads, biscuits and breakfast cereals, sweets and desserts, and plant-based alternatives associated with lower incident type 2 diabetes mellitus. These findings support recommendations to focus on reducing intake of specific UPF for lowering type 2 diabetes mellitus risk. 10.13039/100008700 International Agency for Research on Cancer .

Trials demonstrate that following the DASH diet lowers blood pressure, which may prevent the development of heart failure (HF). We investigated the association between long-term adherence to the DASH diet and food substitutions within the DASH diet on the risk of HF. Men and women aged 45–83 years without previous HF, ischaemic heart disease or cancer at baseline in 1998 from the Cohort of Swedish Men (n = 41 118) and the Swedish Mammography Cohort (n = 35 004) were studied. The DASH diet emphasizes intake of fruit, vegetables, whole grains, nuts and legumes, and low-fat dairy and deemphasizes red and processed meat, sugar-sweetened beverages, and sodium. DASH diet scores were calculated based on diet assessed by food frequency questionnaires in late 1997 and 2009. Incidence of HF was ascertained using the Swedish Patient Register. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). During the median 22 years of follow-up (1998–2019), 12 164 participants developed HF. Those with the greatest adherence to the DASH diet had a lower risk of HF compared to those with the lowest adherence (HR 0.85, 95% CI: 0.80, 0.91 for baseline diet and HR 0.83, 95% CI: 0.78, 0.89 for long-term diet, comparing quintiles). Replacing 1 serving/day of red and processed meat with emphasized DASH diet foods was associated with an 8–12% lower risk of HF. Long-term adherence to the DASH diet and relevant food substitutions within the DASH diet were associated with a lower risk of HF.

OBJECTIVE: There is sparse evidence for the association of suitable food substitutions for red and processed meat on the risk of type 2 diabetes. We modeled the association between replacing red and processed meat with other protein sources and the risk of type 2 diabetes and estimated its population impact. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: The European Prospective Investigation into Cancer (EPIC)-InterAct case cohort included 11,741 individuals with type 2 diabetes and a subcohort of 15,450 participants in eight countries. We modeled the replacement of self-reported red and processed meat with poultry, fish, eggs, legumes, cheese, cereals, yogurt, milk, and nuts. Country-specific hazard ratios (HRs) for incident type 2 diabetes were estimated by Prentice-weighted Cox regression and pooled using random-effects meta-analysis. RESULTS: There was a lower hazard for type 2 diabetes for the modeled replacement of red and processed meat (50 g/day) with cheese (HR 0.90, 95% CI 0.83–0.97) (30 g/day), yogurt (0.90, 0.86–0.95) (70 g/day), nuts (0.90, 0.84–0.96) (10 g/day), or cereals (0.92, 0.88–0.96) (30 g/day) but not for replacements with poultry, fish, eggs, legumes, or milk. If a causal association is assumed, replacing red and processed meat with cheese, yogurt, or nuts could prevent 8.8%, 8.3%, or 7.5%, respectively, of new cases of type 2 diabetes. CONCLUSIONS: Replacement of red and processed meat with cheese, yogurt, nuts, or cereals was associated with a lower rate of type 2 diabetes. Substituting red and processed meat by other protein sources may contribute to the prevention of incident type 2 diabetes in European populations.