We employed wavelets technology to investigate how and when contagion occurred on 10 Central and Eastern European financial markets in relation to Western European and US financial markets during 2000–2016 and their different reactions on the background of changes in their regulatory framework. We found that most of Central and Eastern European (CEE) capital markets showed contagion in relation to both Western European and US markets between 2005 and 2009, while Slovakian and Estonian markets showed no contagion. However, during 2010–2016, Croatian market showed de-contagion in relation to Western European market, while Bulgarian, Czech, Hungarian, and Polish markets showed de-contagion in relation to US market, increasing their independence.
In this article, we explore the causal relationship between wage share and economic growth for 11 Eastern European countries. The methodology used was wavelet coherency for the period between 1995Q1 and 2020Q4. Our results reveal that economic growth acts as the leading role for wage share increase for most Eastern European countries, and only for certain periods, wages can determine economic growth. Furthermore, we find that GDP increases cause wages to increase at different frequencies; there is a positive correlation between GDP growth and wage growth; the effects of wage-led growth policies were weak and only on short periods. Our estimations cast a high degree of uncertainty on the effectiveness of wage increase policies promoted by some national authorities to achieve economic growth.
1 January 2019 in Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja
This article revisits the relationship between the contagion and co-movement of 10 Central and Eastern European (C.E.E.) financial markets in relation to two major Western European capital markets using wavelet-based methodology. Based upon an A.R.D.L. panel model we found that foreign monetary policy, national exchange rate and economic cycle play a key role in both short- and long-term co-movement between capital markets. While a stable economic environment coupled with a strong national currency can reduce the degree of short-term co-movement between capital markets, changes in foreign monetary policy could increase the effect of external shocks. Furthermore, we find that inflation, foreign exchange rate and foreign economic cycle play an important role after longer periods. By ensuring a stable economic environment national authorities can help mitigate the effects of external shocks on national capital markets.
This study analyzes the stock market’s comovement between eleven Eastern European countries in the pre-COVID-19 and COVID-19 period with the USA and China. The methodology used is the wavelet analysis and subsequently the Toda Yamamoto causality test for robustness. This study improves literature by analyzing the ante and COVID-19 crisis period for Eastern European stock markets in relation to the USA and China. The results show that the COVID-19 crisis has generated an increase in the degree of interdependence with USA stock from medium and long to short term; in relation to China stock, if COVID-19 ante there were no links, during the crisis they began to manifest in the medium and long term.
This study examines financial contagion between ten SEE stock markets and two benchmarks across three crisis episodes: the Global Financial Crisis (2007–2009), COVID-19 (2020–2021), and the Russia–Ukraine war (2022–2023). Using daily data from January 2007 to September 2025, we apply MODWT wavelet coherence across six investment horizons (2–128 days), complemented by a nonlinear Breitung and Candelon causality test on wavelet decomposition coefficients. Results are validated by DCC-GARCH(1,1) and formally dated by the Bai and Perron structural break test. Three principal contributions were obtained: (1) a systematic EU member versus accession SEE market comparison in contagion research, not previously undertaken in the literature; (2) a multi-crisis comparative analysis showing fast-transmission contagion for the GFC and COVID-19 versus slow-transmission for the Ukraine war; and (3) EU member markets show wavelet coherence 15–24 percentage points higher than accession markets, with predominantly unidirectional causality from benchmarks to SEE markets. Findings have direct implications for portfolio diversification, macroprudential policy calibration, and the EU accession financial integration strategy.