Climate change is expected to significantly affect hydrological processes in high-Andean basins, where water availability depends strongly on seasonal precipitation and groundwater recharge. This study evaluates future impacts on runoff, groundwater recharge, renewable water resources, and water stress in the Coata River basin (Lake Titicaca watershed, Peru) using the SWAT model forced with CMIP5 climate projections (MPI-ESM-MR and ACCESS1-0 under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 for the period 2025–2100). Model calibration showed satisfactory performance ( = 0.86; NSE > 0.80). Results indicate a pronounced reduction in groundwater recharge, strong variability in runoff, and persistently high water stress across scenarios. Although some projections show increases in runoff, reduced infiltration and subsurface storage limit effective water availability. Renewable water resources exhibit contrasting responses depending on the scenario, with both increases and decreases relative to historical conditions, but with greater variability overall. These findings highlight the high sensitivity of the Coata River basin to climate variability and emphasize the need to incorporate climate projections into water management strategies, including recharge zone protection, improved storage capacity, and more efficient water use.
26 April 2024 in Revista de Gestão Social e Ambiental
Objective: Analyze the wind potential in the highland region of Peru, using data from SENAMHI and NASA to identify its utilization. Theoretical Framework: Key concepts and theories about the characterization of wind resources, the Weibull distribution, and renewable energies are presented, providing a solid foundation for the analysis. Method: The research included a quantitative analysis of meteorological data from SENAMHI (2022-2023) and NASA to characterize wind speed at different heights. Data collection was carried out by comparing average hourly and monthly speeds. Results and Discussion: An average difference of 29.67% in wind speeds was found between SENAMHI and NASA data during spring and summer. Despite the discrepancies, both datasets indicated that the NASA database is reliable. The estimated annual wind power density was 17.7 W/m² at 25 m height, reaching 44.27 W/m² at 100 m, with higher densities in October and November. Research Implications: The results provide key information for the development of low-power wind systems in highland regions, underscoring the importance of reliable data for planning and developing renewable energies. Originality/Value: This study validates the reliability of NASA and SENAMHI data for the characterization of wind resources, contributing to future renewable energy projects in similar areas and highlighting the potential of Puno for low-power wind systems.
Climate change and demographic dynamics may jointly alter future water availability and demand in high-Andean watersheds, yet their combined spatial effects remain insufficiently quantified in the Lake Titicaca Basin. This study integrated the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), bias-adjusted CMIP6 climate projections, Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) population projections, and a network-consistent demand-to-availability Water Stress Index (WSI) to assess quantitative water security in three selected Peruvian tributary basins of Lake Titicaca—the Ramis, Coata, and Huancané—during 2025–2100. SWAT simulations were forced with ACCESS-CM2 and MPI-ESM1-2-HR under SSP1-2.6 and SSP3-7.0, while spatially explicit FuturePop projections were used to estimate domestic water demand across 177 sub-basins. Projected water availability showed substantial interannual and inter-model variability, with Huancané exhibiting the highest supply, Ramis intermediate conditions, and Coata the lowest availability. Under SSP1-2.6, population declined by 2100 in all three basins, whereas SSP3-7.0 increased population by 64.5% in Ramis, 17.2% in Coata, and 66.9% in Huancané. Coata exhibited the narrowest basin-scale supply–demand margin and reached a slight deficit of −0.29 hm3 year−1 by 2100 under SSP3-7.0. However, the network-consistent basin-outlet WSI remained below the critical threshold of 1 in all three basins. Spatially, 98.3–98.9% of the 177 sub-basins were classified as very low stress across the representative years and scenarios under the principal 10% non-allocable streamflow reserve assumption, while WSI ≥ 1 hotspots remained limited to 0–2 sub-basins and were concentrated in Coata. Increasing the non-allocable reserve from 10% to 30% changed hotspot occurrence by no more than one sub-basin at any evaluated horizon. These results show that quantitative water stress is highly localized and sensitive to the spatial correspondence between accumulated demand and routed-streamflow availability, emphasizing the importance of network-consistent supply–demand assessments for long-term water-resource planning in high-Andean systems.