This study investigates the relationship between cultural compliance and late dry-season vegetation dynamics in Southwest Sumba, Indonesia, by analysing a decade of August Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data (2016–2025) and Cultural Compliance Scores (CCS) across three sites. Underpinned by lende ura, a local customary philosophy conceptualising the forest as a ‘rain bridge’ that sustains water availability, this cultural framework fosters community commitment to forest conservation. Empirically, this contrast is evident where Delo, actively practising this philosophy, maintained a high mean NDVI (0.90) with a markedly low Coefficient of Variation (CV: 1.96%), whereas Mangga Nippi and Lua Koba exhibited lower mean NDVI (0.58 and 0.66) and higher variability (CV: 26.54% and 11.06%), indicating biocultural divergence. Consequently, this erosion of traditional practices is associated with changes in vegetation and observed declines in hydrological functions, making water increasingly difficult to access and heightening economic vulnerability within an environmental poverty trap. These findings indicate that late dry-season vegetation stability in this dryland setting is closely associated with the strength of customary governance, suggesting that traditional institutions may complement the formal conservation of natural habitats. By pairing a CCS with a decade of NDVI variability, this study provides a replicable framework and testable hypotheses for examining biocultural dynamics in comparable seasonally dry tropical landscapes.

The rainfed paddy farming system faces profound vulnerabilities due to daily climate non-stationarity. This mixed-methods study in Central Java analyses daily climate signals, total rice production, and household adaptation over 25 years (2001–2025). Moving beyond simple correlation, a Principal Component Regression model integrating five climate variables and three agronomic confounders reveals a profound climate–production decoupling. The composite climate index explains only 7.9% of total production variation, while non-climate factors account for 92.1%. Physical stability is maintained through asymmetric temporal scheduling and a distinct hierarchy of responses, employing active, planned adaptations alongside passive, reactive coping. However, quantitative household evaluation reveals this tonnage stability incurs severe hidden costs; the titip gabah post-harvest system maintains a high Yield Stability Index (0.93) but yields a negative Return on Storage (−7.15%), functioning as a risk-mitigation buffer rather than a profit-maximising tool. Furthermore, climate anomalies drive the progressive alienation of traditional ethnoclimatological knowledge, forcing a cognitive shift toward hybridised decision-making. To prevent passive coping from evolving into systemic maladaptation, we propose a stratified policy framework ranging from village-level knowledge integration and Subdistrict daily risk warnings to regency-level subsidies targeted at smallholders (<0.5 ha).

Building resilient horticultural systems is critical in the face of climate variability, market instability, and institutional fragmentation. In Indonesia, farmer corporations have emerged as institutional arrangements intended to strengthen coordination among smallholder farmers and improve agribusi­ness development. However, limited attention has been given to how farmer corporations operate within the horticultural value chain and contribute to local resilience. This study examines the role of farmer corporations in strengthening the shallot value chain in Majalengka Regency, West Java, Indonesia. This analysis focused on institutional coordination, governance mechanisms, and development priorities within the shallot value chain. The evidence shows that farmer corporations can strengthen resilience by enhancing institutional coordination, collective bargaining, market access, production support, and adaptive capacity in the face of climate and market uncertainty. Institu­tional integration among farmer groups, farmer group associations, cooperatives, government agencies, and private-sector actors was found to be important for strengthening shallot agribusiness governance and promoting long-term horticultural development. This study contributes to the literature by positioning farmer corporations as farmer-based institutional integration mechan­isms, rather than conventional investor-driven corporations. Our results emphasize the need for institutional governance customized to local conditions and collaborative value chain coordina­tion in developing resilient horticultural systems in Indonesia and other agribusiness settings.