Climate change increasingly threatens agricultural productivity in climate-sensitive regions, yet evidence on how temperature and precipitation shape wheat yields over both short- and long-term horizons remains limited in Central Asia. This study investigates the dynamic relationship between temperature, precipitation, and wheat yield in Uzbekistan using annual time-series data for 1992–2023. An Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds-testing approach was applied, with stationarity confirmed via ADF and Phillips–Perron tests and model stability verified through CUSUM and standard diagnostic tests. The results show a statistically significant positive long-run association between temperature and wheat yield, with a 1% increase in temperature linked to a 2.62% yield increase, alongside a negative, one-year-lagged effect of precipitation, indicating that excessive rainfall in the prior season penalizes subsequent yields. The estimated Error Correction Term (−0.234) indicates a comparatively slow adjustment to climatic shocks, equivalent to roughly 4.3 years under this specification. These findings show that temperature and lagged precipitation are statistically associated with wheat yield dynamics in Uzbekistan, though the temperature effect should be interpreted alongside concurrent irrigation expansion and agricultural modernization rather than as an isolated climatic benefit. The results offer an empirical basis for climate-adaptive agricultural planning in Uzbekistan, including drainage management and adjusted sowing calendars.

Мазкур мақолада озиқ-овқат саноатини ривожлантиришда хорижий тажрибалар таҳлил қилинган ва уларнинг Ўзбекистон саноати учун аҳамияти ўрганилган. Тадқиқот доирасида соҳанинг долзарб муаммолари кўриб чиқилди ва хорижий амалиёт асосида кластер моделларини жорий этиш имкониятлари таҳлил қилинди. Методология сифатида иқтисодий таҳлил ва қиёсий услублар қўлланилди. Тадқиқот натижасида инновацион технологияларни жорий этиш ва ишлаб чиқариш самарадорлигини ошириш йўналишлари кўрсатилган. Ушбу ишнинг илмий ва амалий аҳамияти шундаки, озиқ-овқат саноатини модернизация қилиш учун амалий тавсиялар тақдим этилган.