Complexity in manufacturing systems still remains a challenge and leads to operational issues and increased production cost. In this paper, drivers of complexity and typical symptoms of complex manufacturing systems are identified. A comprehensive review of studies published within the last two decades to assess manufacturing system complexity are presented. The key contributions of this review are: 1) a classification of complexity assessment methods based on perceived complexity symptoms; 2) a comprehensive review of assessment methods with cross-evaluation to identify appropriate use based on available data; 3) recommendations for the wider academic and industrial community, based on research trends identified in the literature, as to how complexity assessment should be addressed in the future. It is concluded that the assessment of complexity is necessary so that it can be controlled effectively, however the industry suffers from a lack of practical tools to support in this endeavour. [Received 23 December 2016; Revised 18 August, 14 October 2017; Accepted 22 October, 2017]

Autonomous guided vehicles (AGVs) are driverless material handling systems used for transportation of pallets and line side supply of materials to provide flexibility and agility in shop-floor logistics. Scheduling of shop-floor logistics in such systems is a challenging task due to their complex nature associated with the multiple part types and alternate material transfer routings. This paper presents a decision support system capable of supporting shop-floor decision-making activities during the event of manufacturing disruptions by automatically adjusting both AGV and machine schedules in Flexible Manufacturing Systems (FMSs). The proposed system uses discrete event simulation (DES) models enhanced by the Internet-of-Things (IoT) enabled digital integration and employs a nonlinear mixed integer programming Genetic Algorithm (GA) to find near-optimal production schedules prioritising the just-in-time (JIT) material delivery performance and energy efficiency of the material transportation. The performance of the proposed system is tested on the Integrated Manufacturing and Logistics (IML) demonstrator at WMG, University of Warwick. The results showed that the developed system can find the near-optimal solutions for production schedules subjected to production anomalies in a negligible time, thereby supporting shop-floor decision-making activities effectively and rapidly.

Accurate and real-time product demand forecasting is the need of the hour in the world of supply chain management. Predicting future product demand from historical sales data is a highly non-linear problem, subject to various external and environmental factors. In this work, we propose an optimised forecasting model - an extreme learning machine (ELM) model coupled with the Harris Hawks optimisation (HHO) algorithm to forecast product demand in an e-commerce company. ELM is preferred over traditional neural networks mainly due to its fast computational speed, which allows efficient demand forecasting in real-time. Our ELM-HHO model performed significantly better than ARIMA models that are commonly used in industries to forecast product demand. The performance of the proposed ELM-HHO model was also compared with traditional ELM, ELM auto-tuned using Bayesian Optimisation (ELM-BO), Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) based recurrent neural network and Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) recurrent neural network models. Different performance metrics, i.e., Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and Mean Percentage Error (MPE) were used for the comparison of the selected models. Horizon forecasting at 3 days and 7 days ahead was also performed using the proposed approach. The results revealed that the proposed approach is superior to traditional product demand forecasting models in terms of prediction accuracy and it can be applied in real-time to predict future product demand based on the previous week’s sales data. In particular, considering RMSE of forecasting, the proposed ELM-HHO model performed 62.73% better than the statistical ARIMA(7,1,0) model, 40.73% better than the neural network based GRU model, 34.05% better than the neural network based LSTM model, 27.16% better than the traditional non-optimised ELM model with 100 hidden nodes and 11.63% better than the ELM-BO model in forecasting product demand for future 3 months. The novelty of the proposed approach lies in the way the fast computational speed of ELMs has been combined with the accuracy gained by tuning hyperparameters using HHO. An increased number of hyperparameters has been optimised in our methodology compared to available models. The majority of approaches to improve the accuracy of ELM so far have only focused on tuning the weights and the biases of the hidden layer. In our hybrid model, we tune the number of hidden nodes, the number of input time lags and even the type of activation function used in the hidden layer in addition to tuning the weights and the biases. This has resulted in a significant increase in accuracy over previous methods. Our work presents an original way of performing product demand forecasting in real-time in industry with highly accurate results which are much better than pre-existing demand forecasting models.

Manual assembly processes are favoured for supporting low volume production systems, high product variety, assembly operations that are difficult to automate and manufacturing in low-wage countries. However, manual operations can dramatically impact assembly cycle times, quality and cost when the complexity of the manual operation increases. This paper proposes a method for assessing the process complexity of manual assembly operations, using a representation of manual operations based on predetermined motion time systems. The purpose of this framework is to provide a tool that can be used practically to assess, and therefore control, the complexity of manual operations during their design

Complexity is one of the factors, inducing high cost, operational issues, and increased lead time for product realization and continues to pose challenges to manufacturing systems. One solution to reduce the negative impacts of complexity is its assessment, which can help designers to compare and rationalize various designs that meet the functional requirements. In this paper, a systemic approach is proposed to assess complexity of a product's assembly. The approach is based on Hückel's molecular orbital theory and defines complexity as a combination of both the complexity of product entities and their topological connections. In this model, the complexity of product entities (i.e., components and liaisons) is defined as the degree to which the entity comprises structural characteristics that lead to challenges during handling or fitting operations. The characterization of entity complexities is carried out based on the widely used DFA principles. Moreover, the proposed approach is tested on two case studies from electronics industry for its validity. The results showed that the approach can be used at initial design stages to improve both the quality and assemblability of products by reducing their complexity and accompanying risks.