The Latest Common Agricultural Policy reform intends to expand and strengthen environmental and social support and to liberalise the delivery model carried out through strategic planning. This paper aims to assess the potential impacts of the new CAP reform on the main agricultural markets in Croatia. The impact assessment is analysed using the AGMEMOD model where, in addition to the baseline scenario, three scenarios of potential changes are developed and compared to the baseline. Changes in market patterns (production, yield and net trade) at the end of the simulated period are compared with the baseline scenario results by 2030. The reduction in support levels to production, abolishment of voluntary coupled supports and introduction of additional environmental constraints have a significant impact on the main Croatian agricultural markets. Crop markets prov to be less dependent on subsidies, so that market pattern changes will not mean the loss of Croatia’s net export status for soft wheat, maize and soy beans, while barley no longer holds this status. Livestock sectors, especially beef and dairy, in addition to demonstrating a distinct lack of competitiveness even before the Croatian accession to the EU, additionally suffer significant production volume losses along with an increase in imports. Although significant, changes to the Croatian agricultural market are not dramatic enough to cause a complete production breakdown by 2030.

The Osijek-Baranya County at the East part of Croatia, generally is known as lowland region in whose economy agriculture and food industry are of great importance. Eastern Croatia abounds in various traditional products, mainly based on smoked pork. The goal of this paper is to identify consumers' attitudes and behavior towards East Croatia traditional food products (TFP). Furthermore, the model for market power evaluation of each East Croatia TFP is created according to consumers¨ preferences and attitudes results. The research was performed in Osijek-Baranya County in spring 2019. The sample was consisted of 500 randomly chosen respondents older than 18 via self-fulfilled questionnaire survey. In paper is used descriptive, parametric and non-parametric statistics. People in East Croatia have a positive attitude to TFP of their region. Survey results related to supply, quality, demand and price willingness are used to modelling coefficient for East Croatia TFP commercialization. This coefficient can help producers and policy makers to decide easier about the most perspective production from market point of view. According to the survey results, production of kulen, cottage cheese, ham, honey and sausages are the most promising.

Croatia’s accession to the European Union in 2013, followed by the abolition of the EU milk quota regime in 2015, exposed a structurally vulnerable dairy and beef sector to the dual pressure of single-market price convergence and post-quota production reallocation. While prior partial equilibrium modelling work on Croatian agriculture has assessed broad accession impacts and CAP reform scenario comparisons, no study has yet quantified the post-quota structural transition trajectory of the Croatian dairy and beef sectors with mechanism-level interpretation under the actually implemented CAP framework. This study simulates and analytically interprets the medium-term (to 2030) trajectories of the Croatian dairy and beef sectors using the AGMEMOD partial equilibrium framework, with an updated Croatian country-level model incorporating CAP 2023–2027 parameters, the post-quota dairy module specification, and historical data extending to 2024. Results indicate continued structural contraction: dairy cow numbers decline from 70.9 thousand head (2024) to 66.0 thousand head (2030); milk production falls 8.6% to 399.6 million litres; total cattle population declines by 4.0% and beef and veal meat production falls 11.0% to 33.1 thousand tonnes. Self-sufficiency rates deteriorate to 41% for milk and 51% for beef by 2030. The study contributes empirical evidence on small Member State post-quota adjustment dynamics, demonstrates that the current CAP 2023–2027 instruments are unlikely to reverse the contraction trajectory under baseline assumptions, and raises explicit food security implications for national agri-food policy.

Background: The milk processing sector in the Republic of Croatia faces numerous challenges. It is a distinctly bipolar structure, with some entities resembling the largest milk producers in the EU, while many small and medium-sized dairy farms struggle to remain competitive and achieve further progress. To formulate effective policy, it is important to differentiate between these types and address their key challenges. Objectives: The aim is to find the most representative solution that will help us define typical dairy farms and upgrade a SiTFarm tool (Slovenian Typical Farm Model), enabling us to assess the situation in Croatia comprehensively. Methods/Approach: Cluster analysis was conducted using empirical data obtained from the Croatian Agency for Agriculture and Food. The analysis involved applying both hierarchical and non-hierarchical clustering techniques. Results: Two cluster analysis scenarios are presented, differing in the variables used. In each scenario, 16 relatively homogeneous clusters of farms were obtained. Diversity was minimized within these clusters, and they effectively explain the dairy business in Croatia. Conclusions: The results of this analysis thus represent an important starting point for further analysis of the dairy sector in Croatia. These findings could help policymakers identify the types of farms that would benefit most from targeted investments to enhance efficiency, economic viability, and environmental sustainability.

This study investigates the dairy sector in the Republic of Croatia, which is characterized by pronounced structural heterogeneity. On the one hand, there are highly productive farms comparable to the leading milk producers in the European Union, and numerous small and medium-sized farms that face the challenges of maintaining competitiveness and further development. In order to design effective development and sectoral policies, it is necessary to identify and distinguish the dominant types of dairy farms and their specific development needs. The aim of the study was to develop a representative typology of Croatian dairy farms as a basis for adapting and upgrading the SiTFarm (Slovenian Typical Farm Model) model into CroTFarm (Croatian Typical Farm Model), which will enable a more comprehensive assessment of the production, economic and structural characteristics of the sector. The analysis was conducted on empirical data from the Croatian Agency for Agriculture and Food, covering 3331 dairy farms. To identify groups of farms with similar structural and production characteristics, hierarchical and non-hierarchical cluster analysis methods were applied. The analysis identified 17 clusters, ranging from smaller farms characterized by relatively extensive and diversified production to larger, more specialized farms with higher milk yields and more intensive production. A significant share of mixed farm types combining characteristics of both production systems were also identified. The resulting farm types will be used as input categorical variables in the subsequent empirical farm model, which also represents the primary purpose of their construction within this study.