Juan Hernández Ortíz

Dr. Juan Hernández Ortíz


Research Focus & Metrics

Academic Career Length

1Year (2026-Present)

(Calculated once Scilit publication data is synced: current year − year of first publication + 1)

Representative Publications

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14 July 2026 in Symmetry
Verified
Journal Article
Open access
PDF file
SOSergio Orozco-Cirilo
Sergio Orozco-Cirilo
JVJuan Manuel Vargas-Canales
Juan Manuel Vargas-Canales
DSDora Ma. Sangerman-Jarquín
Dora Ma. Sangerman-Jarquín
JOJuan Hernández Ortíz
Juan Hernández Ortíz
SMSergio Ernesto Medina-Cuéllar
Sergio Ernesto Medina-Cuéllar
NMNicasio García Melchor
Nicasio García Melchor
This article presents the Asymmetric Cross-Market Dynamics Network (ACMD-Net), a forecasting framework built on the premise that commodity markets are fundamentally asymmetric. Three symmetry assumptions are statistically tested and rejected: volatility symmetry via the GJR-GARCH leverage test γ>0, p<0.001, coupling symmetry via the directional Granger causality DM statistic, 3.18–3.67, p<0.001, and cointegration symmetry via a likelihood ratio test, p<0.01. Each rejected hypothesis motivates a corresponding architectural component, yielding causally interpretable forecasts unavailable in black-box alternatives. The model is evaluated on daily CBOT futures for corn, wheat, and soybeans from January 2010 to December 2023, T=3508. ACMD-Net achieves RMSE reductions of 37–42% over ARIMA and 15–17% over standard LSTM. At short horizons (h=1), TFT achieves marginally lower point RMSE (3–4%, not statistically significant; DM p>0.05); at long horizons (h=22), TFT continues to report the lowest point RMSE across all commodities; differences versus ACMD-Net are not statistically significant DM <1.96 for all commodities. The architecture’s predictive value lies in economically grounded interpretability and superior directional accuracy rather than universal RMSE dominance. Directional accuracy ranges from 60 to 62% p<0.001, and net-positive trading returns are obtained for wheat and soybeans at 8–12-basis-point transaction costs. Ablation analysis identifies temporal attention as the primary performance driver, RMSE +22.2%, upon removal, with econometric features contributing an additional 24.9% gain.