The recent arrival in Northern and Western (NW) Europe of bluetongue virus (BTV), which causes the ruminant disease ‘bluetongue’, has raised the profile of this vector-borne ruminant disease and sparked discussions on the reasons for its sudden emergence so far north. This expansion has not happened in isolation and the disease has been expanding into Southern and Eastern Europe for the last decade. This shifting disease distribution is being facilitated by a number of different introduction mechanisms including the movement of infected livestock, the passive movement of infected Culicoides on the wind and, in NW Europe, an unknown route of introduction. The expansion of BTV in Europe has forced a re-evaluation of the importance of Palaearctic Culicoides species in transmission, as well as the importance of secondary transmission routes, such as transplacental transmission, in facilitating the persistence of the virus. The current European outbreak of BTV-8 is believed to have caused greater economic damage than any previous single-serotype outbreak. Although attempts are being made to improve the capacity of European countries to cope with future BTV incursions, the options available are limited by a lack of basic entomological data and limited virological surveillance.

Parasitic infections are ubiquitous in wildlife, livestock and human populations, and healthy ecosystems are often parasite rich. Yet, their negative impacts can be extreme. Understanding how both anticipated and cryptic changes in a system might affect parasite transmission at an individual, local and global level is critical for sustainable control in humans and livestock. Here we highlight and synthesize evidence regarding potential effects of ‘system changes’ (both climatic and anthropogenic) on parasite transmission from wild host–parasite systems. Such information could inform more efficient and sustainable parasite control programmes in domestic animals or humans. Many examples from diverse terrestrial and aquatic natural systems show how abiotic and biotic factors affected by system changes can interact additively, multiplicatively or antagonistically to influence parasite transmission, including through altered habitat structure, biodiversity, host demographics and evolution. Despite this, few studies of managed systems explicitly consider these higher-order interactions, or the subsequent effects of parasite evolution, which can conceal or exaggerate measured impacts of control actions. We call for a more integrated approach to investigating transmission dynamics, which recognizes these complexities and makes use of new technologies for data capture and monitoring, and to support robust predictions of altered parasite dynamics in a rapidly changing world. This article is part of the themed issue ‘Opening the black box: re-examining the ecology and evolution of parasite transmission’.

A wide range of arthropod-borne viruses threaten both human and animal health either through their presence in Europe or through risk of introduction. Prominent among these is West Nile virus (WNV), primarily an avian virus, which has caused multiple outbreaks associated with human and equine mortality. Endemic outbreaks of West Nile fever have been reported in Italy, Greece, France, Romania, Hungary, Russia and Spain, with further spread expected. Most outbreaks in Western Europe have been due to infection with WNV Lineage 1. In Eastern Europe WNV Lineage 2 has been responsible for human and bird mortality, particularly in Greece, which has experienced extensive outbreaks over three consecutive years. Italy has experienced co-circulation with both virus lineages. The ability to manage this threat in a cost-effective way is dependent on early detection. Targeted surveillance for pathogens within mosquito populations offers the ability to detect viruses prior to their emergence in livestock, equine species or human populations. In addition, it can establish a baseline of mosquito-borne virus activity and allow monitoring of change to this over time. Early detection offers the opportunity to raise disease awareness, initiate vector control and preventative vaccination, now available for horses, and encourage personal protection against mosquito bites. This would have major benefits through financial savings and reduction in equid morbidity/mortality. However, effective surveillance that predicts virus outbreaks is challenged by a range of factors including limited resources, variation in mosquito capture rates (too few or too many), difficulties in mosquito identification, often reliant on specialist entomologists, and the sensitive, rapid detection of viruses in mosquito pools. Surveillance for WNV and other arboviruses within mosquito populations varies between European countries in the extent and focus of the surveillance. This study reviews the current status of WNV in mosquito populations across Europe and how this is informing our understanding of virus epidemiology. Key findings such as detection of virus, presence of vector species and invasive mosquito species are summarized, and some of the difficulties encountered when applying a cost-effective surveillance programme are highlighted.

The rate at which viruses replicate and disseminate in competent arthropod vectors is limited by the temperature of their environment, and this can be an important determinant of geographical and seasonal limits to their transmission by arthropods in temperate regions. Here, we present a novel statistical methodology for estimating the relationship between temperature and the extrinsic incubation period (EIP) and apply it to both published and novel data on virus replication for three internationally important orbiviruses (African horse sickness virus (AHSV), bluetongue virus (BTV) and epizootic haemorrhagic disease virus (EHDV)) in their Culicoides vectors. Our analyses show that there can be differences in vector competence for different orbiviruses in the same vector species and for the same orbivirus in different vector species. Both the rate of virus replication (approximately 0.017-0.021 per degree-day) and the minimum temperature required for replication (11-13°C), however, were generally consistent for different orbiviruses and across different Culicoides vector species. The estimates obtained in the present study suggest that previous publications have underestimated the replication rate and threshold temperature because the statistical methods they used included an implicit assumption that all negative vectors were infected. Robust estimates of the temperature dependence of arbovirus replication are essential for building accurate models of transmission and for informing policy decisions about seasonal relaxations to movement restrictions. The methodology developed in this study provides the required robustness and is superior to methods used previously. Importantly, the methods are generic and can readily be applied to other arbovirus-vector systems, as long as the assumptions described in the text are valid.