Assessing impacts on coupled food-water systems that may emerge from water policies, changes in economic drivers and crop productivity requires an understanding of dominant uncertainties. This paper assesses how a candidate groundwater pumping restriction and crop prices, crop yields, surface water price, electricity price, and parametric uncertainties shape economic and groundwater performance metrics from a coupled hydro-economic model (HEM) through a diagnostic global sensitivity analysis (GSA). The HEM used in this study integrates a groundwater depth response, modeled by an Artificial Neural Network (ANN), into a calibrated Positive Mathematical Programming (PMP) agricultural production model. Results show that in addition to a groundwater pumping restriction, performance metrics are highly sensitive to prices and yields of perennial tree crops. These sensitivities become salient during dry years when there is a higher reliance on groundwater. Furthermore, results indicate that performing a GSA for two different water baseline conditions used to calibrate the production model, dry and wet, result in different sensitivity indices magnitudes and factor prioritization. Diagnostic GSA results are used to understand key factors that affect the performance of a groundwater pumping restriction policy. This research is applied to the Wheeler Ridge-Maricopa Water Storage District located in Kern County, California, region reliant on groundwater and vulnerable to surface water shortages.

An economic assessment of the value of agricultural water was conducted at the subdistrict (module) level within the Alto Rio Lerma Irrigation District 011 in Guanajuato, Mexico. The assessment employed positive mathematical programming (PMP), a deductive valuation methodology, which self-calibrates to baseline production input use. Production and water use values for the 2016–2017 agricultural year, and the averages of the 2014 to 2017 agricultural years for yields, agricultural commodity prices, and production costs were employed disaggregated per irrigation module. Results indicate that the economic value of water is 1.8 to 4.7 times higher than the rate currently paid by users, about US$7.89 dam⁻³ (cubic decameters). The differences among the rate and shadow prices could create a pricing water policy focused on water conservation and its efficient use. This work also conducts an assessment of a formal water market in the irrigation district as way to achieve economically efficient water allocations and reduce the potential economic impacts of water shortage during droughts. Modeling results show that an active water market would allow the irrigation district to adapt to scarcer water conditions by shifting cropping patterns and trading water among subdistricts, by reducing loss in net income at the irrigation district. A successful implementation of this system would be feasible, provided that the irrigation modules are able to import and export water, under water scarcity scenarios considered for the water market model. Potential distributional effects and policy insights from this assessment are discussed.

Increasing irrigation demand has heavily relied on groundwater use, especially in places with highly variable water supplies that are vulnerable to drought. Groundwater management in agriculture is becoming increasingly challenging given the growing effects from overdraft and groundwater depletion worldwide. However, multiple challenges emerge when seeking to develop sustainable groundwater management in irrigated systems, such as trade-offs between the economic revenues from food production and groundwater resources, as well as the broad array of uncertainties in food-water systems. In this study we explore the applicability of Evolutionary Multi-Objective Direct Policy Search (EMODPS) to identify adaptive irrigation policies that water agencies and farmers can implement including operational decisions related to land use and groundwater use controls as well as groundwater pumping fees. The EMODPS framework yields state-aware, adaptive policies that respond dynamically as system state conditions change, for example with variable surface water (e.g., shifting management strategies across wet versus dry years). For this study, we focus on the Semitropic Water Storage district located in the San Joaquin Valley, California to provide broader insights relevant to ongoing efforts to improve groundwater sustainability in the state. Our findings demonstrate that adaptive irrigation policies can achieve sufficiently flexible groundwater management to acceptably balance revenue and sustainability goals across a wide range of uncertain future scenarios. Among the evaluated policy decisions, pumping restrictions and reductions in inflexible irrigation demands from tree crops are actions that can support dry-year pumping while maximizing groundwater storage recovery during wet years. Policies suggest that an adaptive pumping fee is the most flexible decision to control groundwater pumping and land use.

Over the past decade, California has experienced two multiyear droughts, resulting in water insecurity for communities and significant economic losses for the agricultural sector. Despite the recognition of water as a human right in the state since 2012, droughts consistently lead to the failure of thousands of domestic wells due to intensified groundwater pumping for irrigation purposes. In the Central Valley alone, groundwater sustains the livelihoods of thousands of individuals (and millions across the state) serving as their sole water source, rendering them vulnerable due to inadequate groundwater management. In this study, we present a spatial statistical model to identify critical localized factors within the food-water-human system that contribute to the vulnerability of domestic wells during droughts. Our results indicate that the depth of domestic wells, density of domestic and agricultural wells, socioeconomic conditions, and the extent of perennial crops play significant roles in predicting well failures during droughts. We show the implications of addressing these factors within the context of ongoing groundwater sustainability initiatives, and we propose strategies to safeguard the water source for thousands of individuals necessary to protect domestic wells.

Agrivoltaics and ecovoltaics are multibenefit land repurposing strategies that offer economic and ecological benefits. They can reduce groundwater pumping near disadvantaged communities, contribute to an equitable clean energy transition, and create job opportunities. This fact sheet details benefits, key ideas for implementation—including a focus on costs, funding sources, and permitting—, and recommendations. Farmers, land managers, and others can use it to discuss land repurposing options with communities, conservation practitioners, project proponents, and block grantees participating in the Multibenefit Land Repurposing Program or other land repurposing programs.

Los sistemas agrivoltaicos y ecovoltaicos son estrategias de reúso de tierras con múltiples beneficios que ofrecen ventajas económicas y ecológicas. Pueden reducir el bombeo de agua subterránea cerca de comunidades desfavorecidas, contribuir a una transición justa hacia la energía limpia y crear oportunidades de empleo. Esta hoja informativa detalla los beneficios, ideas clave para la implementación —incluyendo costos, fuentes de financiamiento y permisos— y recomendaciones. Agricultores, propietarios de tierras y otros grupos pueden usarla para discutir opciones de reúso de tierras agrícolas con comunidades locales, profesionales de conservación, promotores de proyectos y beneficiarios de subvenciones participantes en el Programa de Reúso de Tierras con Múltiples Beneficios u otros programas de reúso de tierras.