Improving lava flow hazard assessment is one of the most important and challenging fields of volcanology, and has an immediate and practical impact on society. Here, we present a methodology for the quantitative assessment of lava flow hazards based on a combination of field data, numerical simulations and probability analyses. With the extensive data available on historic eruptions of Mt. Etna, going back over 2000 years, it has been possible to construct two hazard maps, one for flank and the other for summit eruptions, allowing a quantitative analysis of the most likely future courses of lava flows. The effective use of hazard maps of Etna may help in minimizing the damage from volcanic eruptions through correct land use in densely urbanized area with a population of almost one million people. Although this study was conducted on Mt. Etna, the approach used is designed to be applicable to other volcanic areas.

The Etna flank eruption that started on 24 December 2018 lasted a few days and involved the opening of an eruptive fissure, accompanied by a seismic swarm and shallow earthquakes, significant SO₂ flux release, and by large and widespread ground deformation, especially on the eastern flank of the volcano. Lava fountains and ash plumes from the uppermost eruptive fissure accompanied the opening stage, causing disruption to Catania International Airport, and were followed by a quiet lava effusion within the barren Valle del Bove depression until 27 December. This was the first flank eruption to occur at Etna in the last decade, during which eruptive activity was confined to the summit craters and resulted in lava fountains and lava flow output from the crater rims. In this paper, we used ground and satellite remote sensing techniques to describe the sequence of events, quantify the erupted volumes of lava, gas, and tephra, and assess volcanic hazards.