This page has only limited features, please log in for full access.
The arid and semi-arid regions are highly vulnerable to climate change and variability. Agricultural production in these regions is particularly vulnerable because of its heavy dependence on climate conditions. Therefore, it is important to improve the projections of future agro-climatic conditions. This study investigates the changes in agroclimatic conditions for growing Chinese Medicinal Yam (CMY) in the semi-arid North China during 2031–2050 under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 emission scenarios. It employs high-resolution climate data provided by the regional climate model (RCM) of Providing regional Climates for Impacts Studies (PRECIS-2.0). The changes in CMY yield and producing area under future climate change are simulated by the Agro-Ecological Zone (AEZ) model. The simulations are based on newly calibrated cultivar parameters. The results show that the high-resolution RCM simulation corresponds better with the observations of precipitation and temperature than the general circulation model (GCM). Because of the increased temperature and precipitation, the agroclimatic conditions for CMY are going to improve. While the traditional yam production area will maintain suitable for CMY production, the CMY production areas will further expand northward in the future. The average yield will increase by 1,196 and 1,336 kg DM/ha under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 emission scenarios, respectively.
Dongli Fan; Zhiyu Jiang; Zhan Tian; Guangtao Dong; Laixiang Sun. The Effects of Climate Change on Chinese Medicinal Yam Over North China Under the High‐Resolution PRECIS Projection. Earth and Space Science 2021, 8, 1 .
AMA StyleDongli Fan, Zhiyu Jiang, Zhan Tian, Guangtao Dong, Laixiang Sun. The Effects of Climate Change on Chinese Medicinal Yam Over North China Under the High‐Resolution PRECIS Projection. Earth and Space Science. 2021; 8 (8):1.
Chicago/Turabian StyleDongli Fan; Zhiyu Jiang; Zhan Tian; Guangtao Dong; Laixiang Sun. 2021. "The Effects of Climate Change on Chinese Medicinal Yam Over North China Under the High‐Resolution PRECIS Projection." Earth and Space Science 8, no. 8: 1.
Qian Ke; Jiangshan Yin; Jeremy D. Bricker; Nicholas Savage; Erasmo Buonomo; Qinghua Ye; Paul Visser; Guangtao Dong; Shuai Wang; Zhan Tian; Laixiang Sun; Ralf Toumi; Sebastiaan N. Jonkman. Correction to: An integrated framework of coastal flood modelling under the failures of sea dikes: a case study in Shanghai. Natural Hazards 2021, 1 -2.
AMA StyleQian Ke, Jiangshan Yin, Jeremy D. Bricker, Nicholas Savage, Erasmo Buonomo, Qinghua Ye, Paul Visser, Guangtao Dong, Shuai Wang, Zhan Tian, Laixiang Sun, Ralf Toumi, Sebastiaan N. Jonkman. Correction to: An integrated framework of coastal flood modelling under the failures of sea dikes: a case study in Shanghai. Natural Hazards. 2021; ():1-2.
Chicago/Turabian StyleQian Ke; Jiangshan Yin; Jeremy D. Bricker; Nicholas Savage; Erasmo Buonomo; Qinghua Ye; Paul Visser; Guangtao Dong; Shuai Wang; Zhan Tian; Laixiang Sun; Ralf Toumi; Sebastiaan N. Jonkman. 2021. "Correction to: An integrated framework of coastal flood modelling under the failures of sea dikes: a case study in Shanghai." Natural Hazards , no. : 1-2.
Climate change leads to sea level rise worldwide, as well as increases in the intensity and frequency of tropical cyclones (TCs). Storm surge induced by TC’s, together with spring tides, threatens to cause failure of flood defenses, resulting in massive flooding in low-lying coastal areas. However, limited research has been done on the combined effects of the increasing intensity of TCs and sea level rise on the characteristics of coastal flooding due to the failure of sea dikes. This paper investigates the spatial variation of coastal flooding due to the failure of sea dikes subject to past and future TC climatology and sea level rise, via a case study of a low-lying deltaic city- Shanghai, China. Using a hydrodynamic model and a spectral wave model, storm tide and wave parameters were calculated as input for an empirical model of overtopping discharge rate. The results show that the change of storm climatology together with relative sea level rise (RSLR) largely exacerbates the coastal hazard for Shanghai in the future, in which RSLR is likely to have a larger effect than the TC climatology change on future coastal flooding in Shanghai. In addition, the coastal flood hazard will increase to a large extent in terms of the flood water volume for each corresponding given return period. The approach developed in this paper can also be utilized to investigate future flood risk for other low-lying coastal regions.
Qian Ke; Jiangshan Yin; Jeremy D. Bricker; Nicholas Savage; Erasmo Buonomo; Qinghua Ye; Paul Visser; Guangtao Dong; Shuai Wang; Zhan Tian; Laixiang Sun; Ralf Toumi; Sebastiaan N. Jonkman. An integrated framework of coastal flood modelling under the failures of sea dikes: a case study in Shanghai. Natural Hazards 2021, 1 -33.
AMA StyleQian Ke, Jiangshan Yin, Jeremy D. Bricker, Nicholas Savage, Erasmo Buonomo, Qinghua Ye, Paul Visser, Guangtao Dong, Shuai Wang, Zhan Tian, Laixiang Sun, Ralf Toumi, Sebastiaan N. Jonkman. An integrated framework of coastal flood modelling under the failures of sea dikes: a case study in Shanghai. Natural Hazards. 2021; ():1-33.
Chicago/Turabian StyleQian Ke; Jiangshan Yin; Jeremy D. Bricker; Nicholas Savage; Erasmo Buonomo; Qinghua Ye; Paul Visser; Guangtao Dong; Shuai Wang; Zhan Tian; Laixiang Sun; Ralf Toumi; Sebastiaan N. Jonkman. 2021. "An integrated framework of coastal flood modelling under the failures of sea dikes: a case study in Shanghai." Natural Hazards , no. : 1-33.
The arid and semi-arid regions are highly vulnerable to climate change and variability. Agricultural production in these regions is particularly vulnerable because of its heavy dependence on on climate conditions. Therefore, it is important to improve the projections of future agro-climatic conditions. This study investigates the projections of agroclimatology change during 2031–2050 under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 emission scenario in the semi-arid North China. It is simulated by the agro-ecological zone (AEZ) model with climate data provided by the regional climate model (RCM) of Providing regional Climates for Impacts Studies (PRECIS). The Chinese Medicinal Yam (CMY), which is genuinely produced over semi-arid regions, is taken as an example to study the change of its yield and producing area under future climate change. The results show that the high-resolution RCM simulation corresponds better with the observations than the general circulation model (GCM) in precipitation and temperature. In North China, the CMY genuine production area, the precipitation will increase by about 10% and the temperature will increase by about 2oC under the RCP8.5 scenario. After the evaluation and projection of climate models, the potential yield of CMY and the suitable planting regions are simulated by using the AEZ model. The CMY production areas will expand northward in the future, due to the climate warming in the north. The traditional yam production area still maintains the suitability of CMY production. The production of CMY will augment because of the increased production area.
Dongli Fan; Zhiyu Jiang; Zhan TianiD; Guangtao DongiD; Laixiang SuniD. The effects of climate change on Chinese Medicinal Yam over North China under the high-resolution PRECIS projection. 2021, 1 .
AMA StyleDongli Fan, Zhiyu Jiang, Zhan TianiD, Guangtao DongiD, Laixiang SuniD. The effects of climate change on Chinese Medicinal Yam over North China under the high-resolution PRECIS projection. . 2021; ():1.
Chicago/Turabian StyleDongli Fan; Zhiyu Jiang; Zhan TianiD; Guangtao DongiD; Laixiang SuniD. 2021. "The effects of climate change on Chinese Medicinal Yam over North China under the high-resolution PRECIS projection." , no. : 1.
Global greenhouse gas emissions can be traced to five economic sectors: energy, industry, buildings, transport and AFOLU (agriculture, forestry and other land uses). In this topical review we synthesize the literature to explain recent trends in global and regional emissions in each of these sectors. To contextualise our review, we present estimates of greenhouse gas emissions trends by sector from 1990 to 2018, describing the major sources of emissions growth, stability and decline across ten global regions. Both the literature and data emphasize limited progress towards reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The prominent global pattern is a continuation of underlying drivers with few signs of emerging limits to demand, nor of a deep shift towards the delivery of low and zero carbon services across sectors. We observe a moderate decarbonisation of energy systems in Europe and North America, driven by fuel switching and the increasing penetration of renewables. By contrast, in rapidly industrialising regions, fossil-based energy systems have continuously expanded, only very recently slowing down in their growth. Strong demand for materials, floor area, energy services and travel have driven emissions growth in the industry, buildings and transport sectors, particularly in Eastern Asia, Southern Asia and South-East Asia. An expansion of agriculture into carbon-dense tropical forest areas has driven recent increases in AFOLU emissions in Latin America, South-East Asia and Africa. Identifying, understanding, and tackling the most persistent and climate-damaging trends across sectors is a fundamental concern for research and policy as humanity treads deeper into the Anthropocene.
William F. Lamb; Thomas Wiedmann; Julia Pongratz; Robbie Andrew; Monica Crippa; Jos G J Olivier; Dominik Wiedenhofer; Giulio Mattioli; Alaa Al Khourdajie; Joanna House; Shonali Pachauri; Maria Figueroa; Yamina Saheb; Raphael Slade; Klaus Hubacek; Laixiang Sun; Suzana Kahn Ribeiro; Smail Khennas; Stephane De La Rue Du Can; Lazarus Chapungu; Steven J Davis; Igor Bashmakov; Hancheng Dai; Shobhakar Dhakal; Xianchun Tan; Yong Geng; Baihe Gu; Jan C Minx. A review of trends and drivers of greenhouse gas emissions by sector from 1990 to 2018. Environmental Research Letters 2021, 16, 073005 .
AMA StyleWilliam F. Lamb, Thomas Wiedmann, Julia Pongratz, Robbie Andrew, Monica Crippa, Jos G J Olivier, Dominik Wiedenhofer, Giulio Mattioli, Alaa Al Khourdajie, Joanna House, Shonali Pachauri, Maria Figueroa, Yamina Saheb, Raphael Slade, Klaus Hubacek, Laixiang Sun, Suzana Kahn Ribeiro, Smail Khennas, Stephane De La Rue Du Can, Lazarus Chapungu, Steven J Davis, Igor Bashmakov, Hancheng Dai, Shobhakar Dhakal, Xianchun Tan, Yong Geng, Baihe Gu, Jan C Minx. A review of trends and drivers of greenhouse gas emissions by sector from 1990 to 2018. Environmental Research Letters. 2021; 16 (7):073005.
Chicago/Turabian StyleWilliam F. Lamb; Thomas Wiedmann; Julia Pongratz; Robbie Andrew; Monica Crippa; Jos G J Olivier; Dominik Wiedenhofer; Giulio Mattioli; Alaa Al Khourdajie; Joanna House; Shonali Pachauri; Maria Figueroa; Yamina Saheb; Raphael Slade; Klaus Hubacek; Laixiang Sun; Suzana Kahn Ribeiro; Smail Khennas; Stephane De La Rue Du Can; Lazarus Chapungu; Steven J Davis; Igor Bashmakov; Hancheng Dai; Shobhakar Dhakal; Xianchun Tan; Yong Geng; Baihe Gu; Jan C Minx. 2021. "A review of trends and drivers of greenhouse gas emissions by sector from 1990 to 2018." Environmental Research Letters 16, no. 7: 073005.
Sustainable water management is one of the sustainable development goals (SDGs) and is characterized by a high level of interdependencies with other SDGs from regional to global scales. Many water assessment studies are restricted to silo thinking, mostly focusing on water-related consequences, while lacking a quantification of trade-offs and synergies of economic, social, and environmental dimensions. To fill this knowledge gap, we propose a “nexus” approach that integrates a water supply constrained multi-regional input-output (mixed MRIO) model, scenario analysis, and multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) to quantify the trade-offs and synergies at the sectoral level for the capital region of China, i.e. the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration. A total of 120 industrial transition scenarios including nine major industries with high water-intensities and water consumption under current development pathways were developed to facilitate the trade-off and synergy analysis between economic loss, social goals (here, the number of jobs) and environmental protection (with grey water footprint representing water pollution) triggered by water conservation measures. Our simulation results show that an imposition of a tolerable water constraint (a necessary water consumption reduction for regional water stress level to move from severe to moderate) in the region would result in an average economic loss of 68.4 (± 16.0) billion Yuan (1 yuan ≈ 0.158 USD$ in 2012), or 1.3 % of regional GDP, a loss of 1.94 (± 0.18) million jobs (i.e. 3.5 % of the work force) and a reduction of 1.27 (± 0.40) billion m3 or about 2.2% of the regional grey water footprint. A tolerable water rationing in water-intensive sectors such as Agriculture, Food and tobacco processing, Electricity and heating power production and Chemicals would result in the lowest economic and job losses and the largest environmental benefits. Based on MCDA, we selected the 10 best scenarios with regard to their economic, social and environmental performances as references for guiding future water management and suggested industrial transition policies. This integrated approach could be a powerful policy support tool for 1) assessing trade-offs and synergies among multiple criteria and across multiple region-sectors under resource constraints; 2) quantifying the short-term supply-chain effects of different containment measures, and 3) facilitating more insightful evaluation of SDGs at the regional level so as to determine priorities for local governments and practitioners to achieve SDGs.
Dandan Zhao; Junguo Liu; Laixiang Sun; Bin Ye; Klaus Hubacek; Kuishuang Feng; Olli Varis. Quantifying economic-social-environmental trade-offs and synergies of water-supply constraints: An application to the capital region of China. Water Research 2021, 195, 116986 .
AMA StyleDandan Zhao, Junguo Liu, Laixiang Sun, Bin Ye, Klaus Hubacek, Kuishuang Feng, Olli Varis. Quantifying economic-social-environmental trade-offs and synergies of water-supply constraints: An application to the capital region of China. Water Research. 2021; 195 ():116986.
Chicago/Turabian StyleDandan Zhao; Junguo Liu; Laixiang Sun; Bin Ye; Klaus Hubacek; Kuishuang Feng; Olli Varis. 2021. "Quantifying economic-social-environmental trade-offs and synergies of water-supply constraints: An application to the capital region of China." Water Research 195, no. : 116986.
Replacing traditional fossil fuel with bioethanol has been adopted in many countries to reduce carbon emissions and achieve climate mitigation targets. However, the soaring global demand for food and bioethanol in the future may impose heavy environmental pressure on major sugar crops producing regions of Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) through significant changes in land and water uses. Irrigation expansion in the rainfed dominant cropping areas would partially slow down the land use expansion by boosting yields, but require large-scale investments. This study assesses the future land and water demand triggered by sugar crops expansion from the food-energy-water/land nexus perspective through coupling the Global Agro-Ecological Zones model (GAEZ) with Multi-Regional Input-Output (MRIO) analysis. We further analyse the tradeoffs between water and land use under future scenarios of climate change and socio-economic development regarding to the expected goals of biofuel policies and irrigation expansion strategies in LAC countries due to sufficient local water resources. The results show that the projected water and land demand of sugar crops in LAC would increase by 198% and 205% from 2014 to 2040. Increasing the low- or non- irrigated area up to 50% would mitigate the yield loss and reduce the land demand by 10%, with limited impact on the local water resources in most LAC countries. Major bioethanol producers with limited water demand compared with available water resources, such as Brazil and Argentina, could further promote irrigation to avoid significant landuse change and benefit other countries’ land ecosystems via inter-regional bioethanol trade. While in potential higher water stress countries, including Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Guatemala and Mexico, under bioenergy orientated policy in 2040, reducing biofuel policy targets or importing bioethanol from resource rich countries would be a better option. These results could provide guidelines to balance sugar crops production and sustainable water and land use strategies across LAC.
Honglin Zhong; Kuishuang Feng; Laixiang Sun; Zhan Tian; Gunther Fischer; Li Cheng; Raul Munoz Castillo. Water-land tradeoffs to meet future demands for sugar crops in Latin America and the Caribbean: A bio-physical and socio-economic nexus perspective. Resources, Conservation and Recycling 2021, 169, 105510 .
AMA StyleHonglin Zhong, Kuishuang Feng, Laixiang Sun, Zhan Tian, Gunther Fischer, Li Cheng, Raul Munoz Castillo. Water-land tradeoffs to meet future demands for sugar crops in Latin America and the Caribbean: A bio-physical and socio-economic nexus perspective. Resources, Conservation and Recycling. 2021; 169 ():105510.
Chicago/Turabian StyleHonglin Zhong; Kuishuang Feng; Laixiang Sun; Zhan Tian; Gunther Fischer; Li Cheng; Raul Munoz Castillo. 2021. "Water-land tradeoffs to meet future demands for sugar crops in Latin America and the Caribbean: A bio-physical and socio-economic nexus perspective." Resources, Conservation and Recycling 169, no. : 105510.
Paddy rice cultivation is an important source of agricultural greenhouse gas emissions in China. The traditional flooded paddy rice fields not only use large amounts of irrigation water, but also produce significant methane (CH4) emissions. To balance food security with environmental impacts of rice production, many water-saving irrigations technologies have been tested in the field to increase the drainage period during the rice growth cycle. However, whether these management solutions can be implemented at the regional scale needs to be further explored. Because it is too time-consuming and resource-intensive for field experiments to be carried out across large areas, we opt to assess the regional impacts of alternative irrigation schemes via computer modeling, by coupling the well-known DSSAT and DNDC models, which have been extensively validated in China. Irrigation methods tested include the traditional Continuous Flooding (CF), Midseason Drainage (MD) and Alternate Wetting and Drying (AWD). Simulation results show that compared with CF, water-saving irrigation methods can significantly reduce the CH4 emission from paddy rice field, with slight or no loss in expected rice yields. AWD had the greatest effect in reducing irrigation water amounts and CH4 emission. Compared with CF, CH4 emission under the AWD were 60% - 71% lower in Northeast China sites and 34% - 65% lower in South China sites. At the same time, compared to CF, irrigation water use in AWD was reduced by 23% - 34% in northeast China sites and by 18% - 50% in south China sites. Our results suggest that policies that support expansion of AWD in paddy rice cultivation across China can lead to a “win-win” for the food-water-GHG emissions tradeoffs, and offer a viable solution for policy makers and stakeholders in China.
Zhan Tian; Yidan Fan; Kai Wang; Honglin Zhong; Laixiang Sun; Dongli Fan; Francesco N. Tubiello; Junguo Liu. Searching for “Win-Win” solutions for food-water-GHG emissions tradeoffs across irrigation regimes of paddy rice in China. Resources, Conservation and Recycling 2020, 166, 105360 .
AMA StyleZhan Tian, Yidan Fan, Kai Wang, Honglin Zhong, Laixiang Sun, Dongli Fan, Francesco N. Tubiello, Junguo Liu. Searching for “Win-Win” solutions for food-water-GHG emissions tradeoffs across irrigation regimes of paddy rice in China. Resources, Conservation and Recycling. 2020; 166 ():105360.
Chicago/Turabian StyleZhan Tian; Yidan Fan; Kai Wang; Honglin Zhong; Laixiang Sun; Dongli Fan; Francesco N. Tubiello; Junguo Liu. 2020. "Searching for “Win-Win” solutions for food-water-GHG emissions tradeoffs across irrigation regimes of paddy rice in China." Resources, Conservation and Recycling 166, no. : 105360.
Indonesia has been the largest supplier of palm oil since 2007 and now makes around 56% of the global market. While the existing literature paid major attention to the diverse impacts of oil palm plantation on socioeconomic factors and the environment, less is known on the joint role of biophysical and socioeconomic factors in shaping the temporal and spatial dynamics of oil palm expansion. This research investigates how the benefits and costs of converting other land use/cover (LULC) types to oil palm plantation affects the expansion patterns. It employs spatial panel modeling approach to assess the contributions of biophysical and socioeconomic driving factors. The modeling effort focuses on Sumatra and Kalimantan, two islands which have accounted for more than 90% of oil palm expansion in Indonesia since 1990, with Sumatra holding the majority of the country's plantations and Kalimantan having the highest growth rate since 2000. The results showed that the expansion in Kalimantan was strongly stimulated by export value of palm oil products, took place in areas with better biophysical suitability and infrastructure accessibility, followed the pecking order sequence that the more productive areas had already been taken by the existing agriculture and plantations, and avoided areas with high environmental values or socioeconomic costs. As demand for palm oil continues to grow and land resources becomes more limited, the expansion in Kalimantan will tend to approach the dynamics in Sumatra, with plantation expanding into remote and fertile area with high conversion cost or legal barriers. Bare ground seems to have served as a clearing-up tactic to meet the procedural requirements of oil palm plantation for sustainable development. The research facilitates the improved projection of areas prone to future expansion and the development of strategies to manage the leading drivers of LULC in Indonesia.
Yu Xin; Laixiang Sun; Matthew C. Hansen. Biophysical and socioeconomic drivers of oil palm expansion in Indonesia. Environmental Research Letters 2020, 16, 034048 .
AMA StyleYu Xin, Laixiang Sun, Matthew C. Hansen. Biophysical and socioeconomic drivers of oil palm expansion in Indonesia. Environmental Research Letters. 2020; 16 (3):034048.
Chicago/Turabian StyleYu Xin; Laixiang Sun; Matthew C. Hansen. 2020. "Biophysical and socioeconomic drivers of oil palm expansion in Indonesia." Environmental Research Letters 16, no. 3: 034048.
Massive out-migration of rural labor force brings both challenges and opportunities to crop-livestock integrated production system (crop-livestock system) in smallholder economy. Compared with previous researches that have paid major attention to the effect of labor migration on either crop production or livestock husbandry, this study considers the mediating role of crop production in predicting the effect of labor migration on livestock raising. Our econometric estimation based on a 2012 survey of 974 rural households in Chongqing, a mountainous region of China, showed the following. (1) The massive migration of rural labor force had led to significant increase in farmland abandonment and considerable changes in the pattern of livestock raising. (2) The livestock raising number per household began to differentiate, with the livestock system separating from the traditional crop-livestock system and becoming a specialized business. (3) In terms of the pathways through which rural labor migration exerts impact on livestock raising number, though the increased opportunity costs of rural labor greatly reduced farmers’ willingness to raise livestock, the decoupling of the crop-livestock system partly alleviated the declining trend in the livestock raising number because of the availability of household labor force freed from cropping via farmland abandonment. These findings have important policy implications for rural development and agricultural restructuring in mountainous areas of China, and provide references for other developing countries.
Hong Zhou; Jianzhong Yan; Kun Lei; Ya Wu; Laixiang Sun. Labor migration and the decoupling of the crop-livestock system in a rural mountainous area: Evidence from Chongqing, China. Land Use Policy 2020, 99, 105088 .
AMA StyleHong Zhou, Jianzhong Yan, Kun Lei, Ya Wu, Laixiang Sun. Labor migration and the decoupling of the crop-livestock system in a rural mountainous area: Evidence from Chongqing, China. Land Use Policy. 2020; 99 ():105088.
Chicago/Turabian StyleHong Zhou; Jianzhong Yan; Kun Lei; Ya Wu; Laixiang Sun. 2020. "Labor migration and the decoupling of the crop-livestock system in a rural mountainous area: Evidence from Chongqing, China." Land Use Policy 99, no. : 105088.
To solve the energy crisis and protect the ecological environment has been the central concern of the sustainable development debate. The reproducibility and lower environmental impacts of bioenergy have attracted increasing attention in the debate. This research investigates the potentials of growing rapeseed in winter fallow fields across the Yangtze River Basin (YRB) to serve the goal of boosting bioenergy production and improving edible oil security in China. It first quantifies the extent of winter fallow fields in the Basin and identifies the accurate starting and ending dates of the fallowing at the grid-cell level. It then matches the fallowing periods with the growing period grid-by-grid and assesses the current and future potentials of rapeseed production across the matched grid-cells in the region. The assessments take into consideration of climate change adaptations on sowing dates and on the choice of varieties with suitable growth cycle length. Finally, by coupling the Agro-Ecological Zones (AEZ) model and CHINAGRO-II economic model, this research simulates economically meaningful levels of rapeseeds production and trade for 2020 and 2030. A 60% realization of the production potential would increase total rapeseed supply by 9.1 million tons, reduce China's rapeseed import to zero and further reduce soybean import by 8.1 million tons in 2020. In 2030, the import of rapeseed would be reduced from 15 million tons under baseline to 7.3 million tons.
Zhan Tian; Yinghao Ji; Hanqing Xu; Huanguang Qiu; Laixiang Sun; Honglin Zhong; Junguo Liu. The potential contribution of growing rapeseed in winter fallow fields across Yangtze River Basin to energy and food security in China. Resources, Conservation and Recycling 2020, 164, 105159 .
AMA StyleZhan Tian, Yinghao Ji, Hanqing Xu, Huanguang Qiu, Laixiang Sun, Honglin Zhong, Junguo Liu. The potential contribution of growing rapeseed in winter fallow fields across Yangtze River Basin to energy and food security in China. Resources, Conservation and Recycling. 2020; 164 ():105159.
Chicago/Turabian StyleZhan Tian; Yinghao Ji; Hanqing Xu; Huanguang Qiu; Laixiang Sun; Honglin Zhong; Junguo Liu. 2020. "The potential contribution of growing rapeseed in winter fallow fields across Yangtze River Basin to energy and food security in China." Resources, Conservation and Recycling 164, no. : 105159.
This report summarizes the preliminary analysis of the PRECIS 2.0 simulation results, with an emphasis on the priority concerns of Shanghai municipal government and other local governments in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) Region, and research gaps in the literature. This study employs two regional climate models (RCMs) that are the Providing REgional Climate Impacts for Studies (PRECIS) and Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF), being driven by HadGEM2‐ES and IPSL‐CM5A, two global circulation models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Inter‐comparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5), to investigate the impact of global warming on the characteristics of mean and extreme precipitation over Eastern China. The capacity of two RCMs and its driving GCMs in reproducing the historical climate during the baseline period (1981~2000) are first evaluated, then the projections of mean and extreme precipitation over future warming climate period (2041‐2060) under the scenarios of the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 are carried out. Our analysis shows that with the improved resolution and better representation of finer‐scale physical processes, WRF and PRECIS downscaling displays obvious advantages over their driving GCMs (IPSL and HadGEM respectively) in the validation runs. In particular, the two RCMs are able to capture the observed features of spatial distributions of extreme precipitation indices including V95p, R95t, and SDII. The future projections indicate that increased radiative forcing from RCP4.5 to RCP8.5 emission scenarios would add further strength to the daily precipitation intensity by 2041‐2060.
Guangtao Dong; Zhiyu Jiang; Zhan Tian; Erasmo Buonomo; Laixiang Sun; Dongli Fan. Projecting Changes in Mean and Extreme Precipitation Over Eastern China During 2041–2060. Earth and Space Science 2020, 7, 1 .
AMA StyleGuangtao Dong, Zhiyu Jiang, Zhan Tian, Erasmo Buonomo, Laixiang Sun, Dongli Fan. Projecting Changes in Mean and Extreme Precipitation Over Eastern China During 2041–2060. Earth and Space Science. 2020; 7 (9):1.
Chicago/Turabian StyleGuangtao Dong; Zhiyu Jiang; Zhan Tian; Erasmo Buonomo; Laixiang Sun; Dongli Fan. 2020. "Projecting Changes in Mean and Extreme Precipitation Over Eastern China During 2041–2060." Earth and Space Science 7, no. 9: 1.
Numerous studies in epidemiology, meteorology, and climate change research have demonstrated a significant association between abnormal ambient temperature and mortality. However, there is a shortage of research attention to a systematic assessment of potential mitigation measures which could effectively reduce the heat-related morbidity and mortality risks. This study first illustrates a conceptualization of a systems analysis version of urban framework for climate service (UFCS). It then constructs a system dynamics (SD) model for the UFCS and employs this model to quantify the impacts of heat waves on public health system in Shanghai and to evaluate the performances of two mitigation measures in the context of a real heat wave event in July 2013 in the city. Simulation results show that in comparison with the baseline without mitigation measures, if the hospital system could prepare 20% of beds available for emergency response to heat waves once receiving the warning in advance, the number of daily deaths could be reduced by 40–60 (15.8–19.5%) on the 2 days of day 7 and day 8; if increasing the minimum living allowance of 790 RMB/month in 2013 by 20%, the number of daily deaths could be reduced by 50–70 (17.7–21.9%) on the 2 days of day 8 and day 12. This tool can help policy makers systematically evaluate adaptation and mitigation options based on performance assessment, thus strengthening urban resilience to changing climate.
Xiaochen Liu; Zhan Tian; Laixiang Sun; Junguo Liu; Wei Wu; Haniqng Xu; Landong Sun; Chunfang Wang. Mitigating heat-related mortality risk in Shanghai, China: system dynamics modeling simulations. Environmental Geochemistry and Health 2020, 42, 3171 -3184.
AMA StyleXiaochen Liu, Zhan Tian, Laixiang Sun, Junguo Liu, Wei Wu, Haniqng Xu, Landong Sun, Chunfang Wang. Mitigating heat-related mortality risk in Shanghai, China: system dynamics modeling simulations. Environmental Geochemistry and Health. 2020; 42 (10):3171-3184.
Chicago/Turabian StyleXiaochen Liu; Zhan Tian; Laixiang Sun; Junguo Liu; Wei Wu; Haniqng Xu; Landong Sun; Chunfang Wang. 2020. "Mitigating heat-related mortality risk in Shanghai, China: system dynamics modeling simulations." Environmental Geochemistry and Health 42, no. 10: 3171-3184.
The Northeast Farming Region (NFR) is a major maize cropping region in China, which accounts for about 30% of national maize production. Although the regional maize production has an increasing trend in the last decades, it has greater inter-annual fluctuation. The fluctuation is caused by the increased variations of the local temperature and precipitation given the dominance of rainfed maize in the region. To secure high and stable level of maize production in the NFR under the warmer and drier future climate conditions, we employed a cross-scale model-coupling approach to identify the suitable maize cultivars and planting adaptation measures. Our simulation results show that, with proper adaptations of maize cultivars and adjustments of planting/harvest dates, both maize planting area and yield per unit of land will increase in most regions of NFR. This finding indicates that proactive adaptation can help local farmers to reap the benefits of increasing heat resource brought in by global warming, thus avoiding maize production losses as reported in other studies. This research can potentially contribute to the development of agricultural climate services to support climate-smart decisions for agricultural adaptations at the plot, farm and regional scales, in terms of planning the planting structure of multiple crops, breeding suitable maize varieties, and optimizing planting and field management schedules.
Zhan Tian; Haniqng Xu; Laixiang Sun; Dongli Fan; Günther Fischer; Honglin Zhong; Peiqun Zhang; Edward Pope; Chris Kent; Wei Wu. Using a cross-scale simulation tool to assess future maize production under multiple climate change scenarios: An application to the Northeast Farming Region of China. Climate Services 2020, 18, 100150 .
AMA StyleZhan Tian, Haniqng Xu, Laixiang Sun, Dongli Fan, Günther Fischer, Honglin Zhong, Peiqun Zhang, Edward Pope, Chris Kent, Wei Wu. Using a cross-scale simulation tool to assess future maize production under multiple climate change scenarios: An application to the Northeast Farming Region of China. Climate Services. 2020; 18 ():100150.
Chicago/Turabian StyleZhan Tian; Haniqng Xu; Laixiang Sun; Dongli Fan; Günther Fischer; Honglin Zhong; Peiqun Zhang; Edward Pope; Chris Kent; Wei Wu. 2020. "Using a cross-scale simulation tool to assess future maize production under multiple climate change scenarios: An application to the Northeast Farming Region of China." Climate Services 18, no. : 100150.
Chinese Medicinal Yam (CMY) has been prescribed as medicinal food for thousand years in China by Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM) practitioners. Its medical benefits include nourishing the stomach and spleen to improve digestion, replenishing lung and kidney, etc., according to the TCM literature. As living standard rises and public health awareness improves in recent years, the potential medicinal benefits of CMY have attracted increasing attention in China. It has been found that the observed climate change in last several decades, together with the change in economic structure, has driven significant shift in the pattern of the traditional CMY planting areas. To identify suitable planting area for CMY in the near future is critical for ensuring the quality and supply quantity of CMY, guiding the layout of CMY industry, and safeguarding the sustainable development of CMY resources for public health. In this study, we first collect 30-year records of CMY varieties and their corresponding phenology and agro-meteorological observations. We then consolidate these data and use them to enrich and update the eco-physiological parameters of CMY in the agro-ecological zone (AEZ) model. The updated CMY varieties and AEZ model are validated using the historical planting area and production under observed climate conditions. After the successful validation, we use the updated AEZ model to simulate the potential yield of CMY and identify the suitable planting regions under future climate projections in China. This study shows that regions with high ecological similarity to the genuine and core producing areas of CMY mainly distribute in eastern Henan, southeastern Hebei, and western Shandong. The climate suitability of these areas will be improved due to global warming in the next 50 years, and therefore, they will continue to be the most suitable CMY planting regions.
Dongli Fan; Honglin Zhong; Biao Hu; Zhan Tian; Laixiang Sun; Günther Fischer; Xiangyi Wang; Zhiyu Jiang. Agro-ecological suitability assessment of Chinese Medicinal Yam under future climate change. Environmental Geochemistry and Health 2019, 42, 987 -1000.
AMA StyleDongli Fan, Honglin Zhong, Biao Hu, Zhan Tian, Laixiang Sun, Günther Fischer, Xiangyi Wang, Zhiyu Jiang. Agro-ecological suitability assessment of Chinese Medicinal Yam under future climate change. Environmental Geochemistry and Health. 2019; 42 (3):987-1000.
Chicago/Turabian StyleDongli Fan; Honglin Zhong; Biao Hu; Zhan Tian; Laixiang Sun; Günther Fischer; Xiangyi Wang; Zhiyu Jiang. 2019. "Agro-ecological suitability assessment of Chinese Medicinal Yam under future climate change." Environmental Geochemistry and Health 42, no. 3: 987-1000.
Leading indicators of future economic activity include measures such as new housing starts, managers purchasing index, money supply, and bond yields. Such macroeconomic and financial indicators hold predictive power in signaling recessionary periods. However, many indicators are constrained by the fact that data are often published with some delay and are subject to constant revision1–3. In this research, we propose a leading indicator derived from satellite imagery, the expansion of anthropogenic bare ground. Satellite-detected gain in built-up area, a major land cover and land use (LCLU) outcome of anthropogenic bare ground gain (ABGG), provides an inexpensive, consistent, and near-real-time indicator of global and regional macroeconomic change. Our panel data analysis across four major regions of the world from 2001 to 2012 shows that the logarithm of total ABGG, mostly owing to its major LCLU outcome, the expansion of built-up land in either year t, t -1 or t -2, significantly correlated with the year t logarithm of Gross Domestic Product (GDP, de-trended by Hodrick-Prescott Filter). Global ABGG between 2001 and 2012 averaged 7,875 km2y-1, with a peak gain of 11,875 (± 2014 km2 at the 95% confidence interval (CI)) in 2006, prior to the 2007-2008 global financial crisis. The curve of global ABGG or its major LCLU outcome of built-up area in year t - 1 accords well with that of the de-trended logarithm of the global GDP in year t. Given the 40-year archive of free satellite data, a growing satellite constellation, advances in machine learning, and scalable methods, this study suggests that analyses of ABGG as a whole or its LCLU outcomes can provide valuable information in near-real time for socioeconomic research, development planning and economic forecasting.
Qing Ying; Matthew C Hansen; Laixiang Sun; Lei Wang; Marc Steininger. Satellite-detected gain in built-up area as a leading economic indicator. Environmental Research Letters 2019, 14, 114015 .
AMA StyleQing Ying, Matthew C Hansen, Laixiang Sun, Lei Wang, Marc Steininger. Satellite-detected gain in built-up area as a leading economic indicator. Environmental Research Letters. 2019; 14 (11):114015.
Chicago/Turabian StyleQing Ying; Matthew C Hansen; Laixiang Sun; Lei Wang; Marc Steininger. 2019. "Satellite-detected gain in built-up area as a leading economic indicator." Environmental Research Letters 14, no. 11: 114015.
Coastal mega-cities will face increasing flood risk under the current protection standard because of future climate change. Previous studies seldom evaluate the comparative effectiveness of alternative options in reducing flood risk under the uncertainty of future extreme rainfall. Long-term planning to manage flood risk is further challenged by uncertainty in socioeconomic factors and contested stakeholder priorities. In this study, we conducted a knowledge co-creation process together with infrastructure experts, policy makers, and other stakeholders to develop an integrated framework for flexible testing of multiple flood-risk mitigation strategies under the condition of deep uncertainties. We implemented this framework to the reoccurrence scenarios in the 2050s of a record-breaking extreme rainfall event in central Shanghai. Three uncertain factors, including precipitation, urban rain island effect and the decrease of urban drainage capacity caused by land subsidence and sea level rise, are selected to build future extreme inundation scenarios in the case study. The risk-reduction performance and cost-effectiveness of all possible solutions are examined across different scenarios. The results show that drainage capacity decrease caused by sea-level rise and land subsidence will contribute the most to the rise of future inundation risk in central Shanghai. The combination of increased green area, improved drainage system, and the deep tunnel with a runoff absorbing capacity of 30% comes out to be the most favorable and robust solution which can reduce the future inundation risk by 85% (±8%). This research indicates that to conduct a successful synthesized trade-off analysis of alternative flood control solutions under future deep uncertainty is bound to be a knowledge co-creation process of scientists, decision makers, field experts, and other stakeholders.
Hengzhi Hu; Zhan Tian; Laixiang Sun; Jiahong Wen; Zhuoran Liang; Guangtao Dong; Junguo Liu. Synthesized trade-off analysis of flood control solutions under future deep uncertainty: An application to the central business district of Shanghai. Water Research 2019, 166, 115067 .
AMA StyleHengzhi Hu, Zhan Tian, Laixiang Sun, Jiahong Wen, Zhuoran Liang, Guangtao Dong, Junguo Liu. Synthesized trade-off analysis of flood control solutions under future deep uncertainty: An application to the central business district of Shanghai. Water Research. 2019; 166 ():115067.
Chicago/Turabian StyleHengzhi Hu; Zhan Tian; Laixiang Sun; Jiahong Wen; Zhuoran Liang; Guangtao Dong; Junguo Liu. 2019. "Synthesized trade-off analysis of flood control solutions under future deep uncertainty: An application to the central business district of Shanghai." Water Research 166, no. : 115067.
Urban expansion is one of the main factors driving terrestrial carbon storage (TCS) changes. Accurate accounting of TCS and rigorous quantification of its changes caused by historical urban expansion may help us to better predict its changes in the future. This study focuses on the carbon impacts of urbanization in China where the share of the urban population has increased from 18% in 1978 to 59% in 2017 and the growing will continue in the coming decades. Our results show that China’s TCS decreased at an accelerating pace over the past three decades with an average reduction of 0.72TgC/y in 1980-1990 and 8.72TgC/y in 2000-2010, mostly due to conversion from cropland and woodland to urban land. Through simulating urban expansion under four scenarios from 2010 to 2050, we found a potential increasing trend in land conversion from woodland to urban land. This conversion trend would result in carbon storage loss at an average rate of 9.31TgC/y~12.94TgC/y in 2010-2050. The increasing trend in both land conversion and carbon storage loss is especially visible in the population centers of the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta. Considering that the indirect emission effects of urbanization, such as farmland displacement, population migration, and land degradation, may be much larger, the overall emission impact of forthcoming urban expansion in China would increase the uncertainty of the nation’s carbon emissions and potentially undermine China’s targets as committed in the Paris Climate Agreement.
Xiaoping Liu; Shaojian Wang; Peijun Wu; Kuishuang Feng; Klaus Hubacek; Xia Li; Laixiang Sun. Impacts of Urban Expansion on Terrestrial Carbon Storage in China. Environmental Science & Technology 2019, 53, 6834 -6844.
AMA StyleXiaoping Liu, Shaojian Wang, Peijun Wu, Kuishuang Feng, Klaus Hubacek, Xia Li, Laixiang Sun. Impacts of Urban Expansion on Terrestrial Carbon Storage in China. Environmental Science & Technology. 2019; 53 (12):6834-6844.
Chicago/Turabian StyleXiaoping Liu; Shaojian Wang; Peijun Wu; Kuishuang Feng; Klaus Hubacek; Xia Li; Laixiang Sun. 2019. "Impacts of Urban Expansion on Terrestrial Carbon Storage in China." Environmental Science & Technology 53, no. 12: 6834-6844.
This paper proposes an index-based assessment tool to consolidate diverse opinions of various stakeholders on their assessments of sector-specific risks posed by climate change, and to aggregate these opinions into intuitive and comparable graphs. This tool enables cities to measure and monitor the multiple factors that contribute to their resilience towards climate risk and hazard in the long term. We applied this tool to five key infrastructure sectors in six representative cities in the Yangtze River Delta region. The graphs generated provide for the first time first-hand insights into the aggregative understanding of various stakeholders with regard to the current and future climate risk in their concerned sectors and cities. Our results indicate that a high level of exposure is not automatically associated with a high level of vulnerability across our selected cities. While all cities need to make efforts to reduce their vulnerability towards climate hazards, those characterized by “lower level of exposure but higher level of vulnerability” need to make more urgent and much greater efforts.
Landong Sun; Zhan Tian; Huan Zou; Lanzhu Shao; Laixiang Sun; Guangtao Dong; Dongli Fan; Xinxing Huang; Laura Frost; Lewis-Fox James. An Index-Based Assessment of Perceived Climate Risk and Vulnerability for the Urban Cluster in the Yangtze River Delta Region of China. Sustainability 2019, 11, 2099 .
AMA StyleLandong Sun, Zhan Tian, Huan Zou, Lanzhu Shao, Laixiang Sun, Guangtao Dong, Dongli Fan, Xinxing Huang, Laura Frost, Lewis-Fox James. An Index-Based Assessment of Perceived Climate Risk and Vulnerability for the Urban Cluster in the Yangtze River Delta Region of China. Sustainability. 2019; 11 (7):2099.
Chicago/Turabian StyleLandong Sun; Zhan Tian; Huan Zou; Lanzhu Shao; Laixiang Sun; Guangtao Dong; Dongli Fan; Xinxing Huang; Laura Frost; Lewis-Fox James. 2019. "An Index-Based Assessment of Perceived Climate Risk and Vulnerability for the Urban Cluster in the Yangtze River Delta Region of China." Sustainability 11, no. 7: 2099.
Unsustainable overexploitation of groundwater for agricultural irrigation has led to rapid groundwater depletion and severe environmental damage in the semi-arid Hebei Plain of China. Field experiments have recommended annual winter fallowing (i.e., forgoing winter wheat production) as the most effective way to replenish groundwater. However, adopting the recommendation across the Hebei Plain would lead to a significant reduction in total wheat production. This research aims to find the most favorable water-sustainable cropping systems for different localities in the Hebei Plain, which at the regional aggregation level maintains the uppermost overall levels of wheat and grain production respectively. Our simulations indicate that in the Hebei Plain, an optimal allocation of a wheat-early maize relay intercropping system and an early maize-winter fallow cropping system across the Hebei Plain could lead to significant water savings while minimizing grain production losses to around 11%. Compared to the prevailing wheat and summer maize cropping system, to prevent a drop in the water table, 39% of the current wheat cropping land would need to be fallowed in winter, reducing irrigation water use by 2639 × 106 m3. Replacing the prevailing wheat and summer maize cropping system with our optimized allocation system could lead to a 36% increase in total maize production and 39% decrease in total wheat production, resulting in total agricultural irrigation water savings of 2322 × 106 m3 and a total grain production reduction by 11%. The findings indicate the potential benefits of our cropping system adaptation method to meet the challenge of recovering local groundwater level with the least possible reduction of wheat and total grain production in the Hebei Plain.
Honglin Zhong; Laixiang Sun; Günther Fischer; Zhan Tian; Zhuoran Liang. Optimizing regional cropping systems with a dynamic adaptation strategy for water sustainable agriculture in the Hebei Plain. Agricultural Systems 2019, 173, 94 -106.
AMA StyleHonglin Zhong, Laixiang Sun, Günther Fischer, Zhan Tian, Zhuoran Liang. Optimizing regional cropping systems with a dynamic adaptation strategy for water sustainable agriculture in the Hebei Plain. Agricultural Systems. 2019; 173 ():94-106.
Chicago/Turabian StyleHonglin Zhong; Laixiang Sun; Günther Fischer; Zhan Tian; Zhuoran Liang. 2019. "Optimizing regional cropping systems with a dynamic adaptation strategy for water sustainable agriculture in the Hebei Plain." Agricultural Systems 173, no. : 94-106.