Previous projections show consistent increases in river flows of Asian Water Towers under future climate change. Here we find non-monotonic changes in river flows for seven major rivers originating from the Tibetan Plateau at the warming levels of 1.5 °C, 2.0 °C, and 3.0 °C based on an observation-constrained hydrological model. The annual mean streamflow for seven rivers at 1.5 °C warming level decreases by 0.1–3.2% relative to the present-day climate condition, and increases by 1.5–12% at 3.0 °C warming level. The shifting river flows for the Yellow, Yangtze, Brahmaputra, and Ganges are mostly influenced by projected increases in rainfall, but those for the Mekong, Salween, and Indus are dictated by the relative changes in rainfall, snowmelt and glacier melt. Reduced river flows in a moderately warmed climate threaten water security in riparian countries, while elevated flood risks are expected with further temperature increases over the Tibetan Plateau.

This study integrated a water isotope module into the hydrological model THREW (Tsinghua Representative Elementary Watershed) which has been successfully used in high and cold regions. Signatures of oxygen stable isotope (¹⁸O) of different water inputs and stores were simulated coupling with the simulations of runoff generation. Isotope measurements of precipitation water samples and assumed constant isotope signature of ice meltwater were used to force the isotope module. Isotope signatures of water stores such as snowpack and subsurface water were updated by an assumed completely mixing procedure. Fractionation effects of snowmelt and evapotranspiration were modeled in a Rayleigh fractionation approach. The isotope-aided model was subsequently applied for the quantification of runoff components and estimations of mean water travel time (MTT) and mean residence time (MRT) in the glacierized watershed of Karuxung river on the Tibetan Plateau. Model parameters were calibrated by three variants with different combinations of streamflow, snow cover area and isotopic composition of stream water. Modeled MTT and MRT were validated by estimates of a tracer-based sine-wave method. Results indicate that (1) the proposed model performs well on simultaneously reproducing the observations of streamflow, snow cover area and isotopic composition of stream water, despite the fact that only precipitation water samples were available for tracer input; (2) isotope data facilitate more robust estimations on contributions of runoff components (CRCs) to streamflow in the melting season, as well as on MTT and MRT; (3) involving isotope data for the model calibration obviously reduces uncertainties in the quantification of CRCs and estimations of MTT and MRT, through better constraining the competitions among different runoff processes induced by meltwater and rainfall. Our results inform scientists on the high value of water isotope data for improving process understanding in a glacierized basin on the Tibetan Plateau.

Issues related to large uncertainty and parameter equifinality have posed big challenges for hydrological modeling in cold regions where runoff generation processes are particularly complicated. Tracer-aided hydrological models that integrate the transportation and fractionation processes of water stable isotope are increasingly used to constrain parameter uncertainty and refine the parameterizations of specific hydrological processes in cold regions. However, the common unavailability of site sampling of spatially distributed precipitation isotopes hampers the practical applications of tracer-aided models in large-scale catchments. This study, taking the precipitation isotope data (isotopes-incorporated global spectral model – isoGSM) derived from the isotopic general circulation models (iGCMs) as an example, explored its utility in driving a tracer-aided hydrological model in the Yarlung Tsangpo River basin (YTR; around 2×10⁵ km², with a mean elevation of 4875 m) on the Tibetan Plateau (TP). The isoGSM product was firstly corrected based on the biases between gridded precipitation isotope estimates and the limited site sampling measurements. Model simulations driven by the corrected isoGSM data were then compared with those forced by spatially interpolated precipitation isotopes from site sampling measurements. Our results indicated that (1) spatial precipitation isotopes derived from the isoGSM data helped to reduce modeling uncertainty and improve parameter identifiability in a large mountainous catchment on the TP, compared to a calibration method using discharge and snow cover area fraction without any information on water isotopes; (2) model parameters estimated by the corrected isoGSM data presented higher transferability to nested subbasins and produced higher model performance in the validation period than that estimated by the interpolated precipitation isotope data from site sampling measurements; (3) model calibration forced by the corrected isoGSM data successfully rejected parameter sets that overestimated glacier melt contribution and gave more reliable contributions of runoff components, indicating the corrected isoGSM data served as a better choice to provide informative spatial precipitation isotope than the interpolated data from site sampling measurements at the macro scale. This work suggested plausible utility of combining isoGSM data with measurements, even from a sparse sampling network, in improving hydrological modeling in large high mountain basins.

Stable isotopes of O and H in water are meaningful indicators of hydrological and ecological patterns and processes. The Global Network of Isotopes in Precipitation (GNIP) and the Global Network of Isotopes in Rivers (GNIR) are the two most important global databases of isotopes in precipitation and rivers. While the data of GNIP is almost globally distributed, GNIR has an incomplete spatial coverage, which hinders the utilization of river isotopes to study global hydrological cycle. To fill this knowledge gap, this study supplements GNIR and provides a river isotope database with global-coverage by the meta-analysis method, i.e., collecting 17015 additional data points from 215 published articles. Based on the newly compiled database, we find that (1) the relationship between δ¹⁸O and δ²H in river waters exhibits an asymmetric imbricate feature, and bifurcation can be observed in Africa and North America, indicating the effect of evaporation on isotopes; (2) multiple regression analysis with geographical factors indicates that spatial patterns of river isotopes are quite different across regions; (3) multiple regression with geographical and meteorological factors can well predict the river isotopes, which provides regional regression models with r² of 0.50 to 0.89, and the best predictors in different regions are different. This work presents a global map of river isotopes and establishes a benchmark for further research on isotopes in rivers.

Tracer-aided hydrological models integrating water isotope modules into the simulation of runoff generation are useful tools to reduce uncertainty of hydrological modeling in cold basins that are featured by complex runoff processes and multiple runoff components. However, there is little guidance on the strategy of field water sampling for isotope analysis to run tracer-aided hydrological models, which is especially important for large mountainous basins on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) where field water sampling work is highly costly. This study conducted a set of numerical experiments based on the THREW-T (Tsinghua Representative Elementary Watershed - Tracer-aided version) model to evaluate the reliance of the tracer-aided modeling performance on the availability of site measurements of water isotope in the Yarlung Tsangpo river (YTR) basin on the TP. Data conditions considered in the numerical experiments included the availability of glacier meltwater isotope measurement, quantity of site measurements of precipitation isotope, and the variable collecting strategies for stream water samples. Our results suggested that (1) in high-mountain basins where glacier meltwater samples for isotope analysis are not available, estimating glacier meltwater isotope by an offset parameter from the precipitation isotope is a feasible way to force the tracer-aided hydrological model. Using a set of glacier meltwater δ¹⁸O that were 2 ‰–9 ‰ lower than the mean precipitation δ¹⁸O resulted in only small changes in the model performance and the quantifications of contributions of runoff components (CRCs, smaller than 5 %) to streamflow in the YTR basin. (2) The strategy of field sampling for site precipitation to correct the global gridded isotope product of isoGSM (isotope-incorporated global spectral model) for model forcing should be carefully designed. Collecting precipitation samples at sites falling in the same altitude tends to be worse at representing the ground pattern of precipitation δ¹⁸O over the basin than collecting precipitation samples from sites in a range of altitudes. (3) Collecting weekly stream water samples at multiple sites in the wet and warm seasons is the optimal strategy for calibrating and evaluating a tracer-aided hydrological model in the YTR basin. It is highly recommended to increase the number of stream water sampling sites rather than spending resources on extensive sampling of stream water at a sole site for multiple years. These results provide important implications for collecting site measurements of water isotopes for running tracer-aided hydrological models to improve quantifications of CRCs in high-mountain basins.