Producing accurate crop maps during the current growing season is essential for effective agricultural monitoring. Substantial efforts have been made to study regional crop distribution from year to year, but less attention is paid to the dynamics of composition and spatial extent of crops within a season. Understanding how crops are distributed at the early developing stages allows for the timely adjustment of crop planting structure as well as agricultural decision making and management. To address this knowledge gap, this study presents an approach integrating object-based image analysis with random forest (RF) for mapping in-season crop types based on multi-temporal GaoFen satellite data with a spatial resolution of 16 meters. A multiresolution local variance strategy was used to create crop objects, and then object-based spectral/textural features and vegetation indices were extracted from those objects. The RF classifier was employed to identify different crop types at four crop growth seasons by integrating available features. The crop classification performance of different seasons was assessed by calculating F-score values. Results show that crop maps derived using seasonal features achieved an overall accuracy of more than 87%. Compared to the use of spectral features, a feature combination of in-season textures and multi-temporal spectral and vegetation indices performs best when classifying crop types. Spectral and temporal information is more important than texture features for crop mapping. However, texture can be essential information when there is insufficient spectral and temporal information (e.g., crop identification in the early spring). These results indicate that an object-based image analysis combined with random forest has considerable potential for in-season crop mapping using high spatial resolution imagery.

Land use/land cover change (LUCC) is the most direct driving force of landscape pattern change. The Zoige Plateau is a natural ecosystem with the largest high-altitude swamp wetland in China and its land use pattern has undergone great changes in recent years, but how the changes of each land use type affect the landscape pattern is uncertain. Here, we used the object-oriented method to extract land use information in 2015. Then, combined with land use data, the land use change characteristics from 2000 to 2015 were analyzed. We used the correlation analysis method to analyze the effects of land use changes on landscape pattern systematically. Three key conclusions were reached. (1) Land use information for the Zoige Plateau could be extracted with high accuracy by combining the object-oriented method and support vector machine (SVM). The overall accuracy was 93.2% and the Kappa coefficient was 0.889. (2) The comprehensive dynamic degree of land use was the highest from 2010 to 2015. From 2000 to 2015, the wetland area decreased the fastest because 57.05% of the wetlands were transferred out. Construction land increased the fastest, and the transferred in area from grassland and farmland were the main reason. (3) The effects of unused land, farmland, and construction land on the overall landscape pattern were stronger than that of the other types, among which farmland had the most significant impact (with a correlation coefficient of 0.959, p < 0.001). The change of unused land was the most highly significant factor associated with the landscape area pattern, and both the water body and unused land showed strong correlations with landscape shape pattern change. This suggested that the effects of land use types occupying a relatively small area on the landscape pattern were intensified. This study will provide guidance for the environmental management of local land resources and other natural ecosystem areas.

Cropland fields are the basic spatial units for agricultural management, and information about their distribution is critical for analyzing agricultural investments and management. However, the extraction of cropland fields of smallholder farms is a challenging task because of their irregular shapes and diverse spectrum. In this paper, we proposed a new object-based Genetic Programming (GP) approach to extract cropland fields. The proposed approach used the multiresolution segmentation (MRS) method to acquire objects from a very high resolution (VHR) image, and extracted spectral, shape and texture features as inputs for GP. Then GP was used to automatically evolve the optimal classifier to extract cropland fields. The results show that the proposed approach has obtained high accuracy in two areas with different landscape complexities. Further analysis show that the GP approach significantly outperforms five commonly used classifiers, including K-Nearest Neighbor (KNN), Decision Tree (DT), Naïve Bayes (NB), Support Vector Machine (SVM), and Random Forest (RF). By using different numbers of training samples, GP can maintain high accuracy with any volume of samples compared to other classifiers.

Analyzing the relationship between rural settlements and rural population change under different policy scenarios is key in the sustainable development of China’s urban and rural areas. We proposed a framework that comprised the mixed land use structure simulation (MCCA) model and the human–land coupling development model to assess the spatiotemporal dynamic changes in rural settlements and its’ coupling relationship with the rural population in the economically developed region of Deqing, Zhejiang Province. The results showed that rural settlements and urban land increased by 14.36 and 29.07 km², respectively, over the last 20 years. The expansion of some rural settlements and urban land occurred at the cost of cropland occupation. Rural settlements showed an expansion trend from 2000 to 2020, increasing from 42.69 km² in 2000 to 57.05 km² in 2020. In 2035, under the natural development scenario, the cropland protection scenario, and the rural development scenario, rural settlements are projected to show an expansion trend and Wukang and Leidian are the key regions with rural settlement expansion. The distance to Hangzhou, nighttime light data, distance to rivers, and precipitation are important factors influencing the expansion of rural settlements. The coupling relationship between rural settlements and the rural population developed in a coordinated manner from 2000 to 2020. For 2035, under different scenarios, the coupling relationship between rural settlements and the rural population showed different trends. In the rural development scenario, the highest number of towns with coordinated development between rural settlements and the rural population is in Deqing, predominantly with Type I coupling. Overall, an important recommendation from this study is that the sustainable development of regional land use can be promoted by controlling the occupation of cropland for urban and rural construction, balancing rural settlement expansion and rural population growth, and formulating land use policies that are more suitable for rural development.

This paper presents an approach of combining biophysical, social, and economic factors for spatially explicit assessment of potential future risks of food insecurity at a global scale over the period of 2000–2020 under a certain scenario. In doing that, two indicators, namely per capita food availability and per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP), were selected to cover the four dimensions of food security, with the former representing the status of food availability and stability, and the latter reflecting the situation of food accessibility and affordability. These two indicators were then linked to an integrated modeling framework. Under this framework, a GIS-based EPIC model was adopted to estimate the potential yields of different crop types under a given biophysical and agricultural management environment, a crop choice decision model was used to model the changes in crop areas through tracking the crop choice decisions, and the IFPSIM model was utilized to evaluate the crop price in the international market. Based on these two indicators, the potential risks of food insecurity were assessed with a spatial resolution of six arc-minutes. The results show that both changes in per capita food availability and changes in per capita GDP during 2000–2020 vary across regions worldwide. Some regions such as China, most eastern European countries, and most southern American countries where there is an increase in per capita food availability or an increase in the capacity to import food between 2000 and 2020 might be able to improve their food security situation. On the contrary, certain regions such as southern Asia and most African countries will likely remain hotspots of food insecurity in the future. In these regions, both the per capita food availability and the capacity of being able to import food will decrease between 2000 and 2020. Although most developed countries will also experience both a decrease in per capita food availability and a decrease in per capita GDP, these countries are likely to be food-secure due to their higher income and purchasing power.

Cropland maps at regional or global scales typically have large uncertainty and are also inconsistent with each other. The substantial uncertainty in these cropland maps limits their use in research and management efforts. Many synergy approaches have been developed to generate hybrid cropland maps with higher accuracy from existing cropland maps. However, few studies have compared the advantages, disadvantages, and regional suitability of these approaches. To close this knowledge gap, this study aims to compare two representative synergy methods of cropland mapping: Geographically weighted regression (GWR) and modified fuzzy agreement scoring (MFAS). We assessed how the sample size, quality of input satellite-based maps, and various landscapes influence the accuracy of the synergy maps based on these two methods. The GWR model is a regression analysis predominantly dependent on the cropland percentage of the training samples, while the MFAS method is largely influenced by the consistency of input datasets, and the training samples only play an auxiliary role. Therefore, the GWR method was relatively more sensitive to the number of training samples than the MFAS method. The quality of input maps had a significant impact on both methods, particularly on MFAS. In regions with heterogeneous landscapes and high elevations, the croplands are generally more fragmented, and the consistency of the input satellite-based maps was lower; the application of cropland percentage samples could compensate for the low dataset consistency. Therefore, GWR is more suitable for regions with heterogeneous landscapes, while MFAS is more appropriate for regions with homogeneous landscapes. The MFAS method uses cropland area from the agricultural statistics to calibrate the initial synergy maps, while the GWR model only considers the spatial distribution of cropland and does not make use of the distribution information of cropland area. The MFAS method showed a higher correlation with the statistical data, while GWR model exhibited a stronger relationship with cropland percentage. Our study reveals the advantages, disadvantages, and regional suitability of the two main types of synergy methods (regression analysis methods and data consistency scoring methods) and can inform future synergy cropland mapping efforts.