Floods are the natural hazards that are causing the most deaths worldwide. Flood early warning systems are one of the most cost-efficient methods to reduce death rates, triggering decisions about the evacuation of exposed population. Although previous studies have investigated the effect of human behaviours on evacuation processes, studies analysing a combination of behaviours, flood onset and warning timing are limited. Our objective is to explore how changes on the aforementioned factors can affect casualties. This is done within a modelling framework that includes an agent-based model, a hydraulic model, and a traffic model, which is implemented for the case study of Orvieto (Italy). The results show that the number of casualties is most impacted by people’s behaviour. Besides, we found that a delay of 30 min in releasing the warning can boost the number of casualties up to six times. These results may help managers to propose effective emergency plans.

The need of addressing “residual flood risk” associated with structural protection measures, such as levee systems and flood-control reservoirs, has fostered actions aimed at increasing flood risk awareness. Structural measures have lowered risk perception by inducing a false sense of safety. As a result, these structures contribute to an underestimation of the “residual risk”. We analyze the effect of different reservoir operations, such as coping with drought versus coping with flood events, on flood inundation patterns. First, a hydrological model simulates different scenarios, which represent the dam regulation strategies. Each regulation strategy is the combination of an opening of the outlet gate and of the initial water level in the reservoir. Second, the corresponding outputs of the dam in terms of maximum discharge values are estimated. Then, in turn, each output of the dam is used as an upstream boundary condition of a hydraulic model used to simulate the flood propagation and the inundation processes in the river reach. The hydraulic model is thus used to determine the effect, in terms of inundated areas, of each dam regulation scenario. Finally, the ensemble of all flood inundation maps is built to define the areas more prone to be flooded. The test site is the Casanuova dam (Umbria, central Italy) which aims at: (i) mitigating floods occurring at the Chiascio River, one of the main tributaries of Tiber River, while (ii) providing water supply for irrigation. Because of these two competitive interests, the understanding of different scenarios generated by the dam operations offers an unique support to flood mitigation strategies. Results can lead to draw interesting remarks for a wide number of case studies.

A large number of dams were built in Italy in the first decades of the last century to supply the needs of industrial, electric power, agricultural, and drinking purposes. Among them, the Montedoglio dam, an important reservoir on the Tiber River located in central Italy, with a drainage area of 276 km2 and a maximum storage volume of about 153 Mm3. The dam is an earth-fill structure with overfall spillway partly controlled by two sluice gates. On December 29, 2010, due to the partial sudden collapse of the spillway, a huge volume of water flooded the valley below the dam, severely damaging the territory, but luckily without causalities. Considering that scarce data are available for this type of event worldwide, this paper aims to illustrate the collected data of the studied event in terms of reservoir levels, using a discharge hydrograph observed at downstream gauged river sites and the flooded valley area. This study aims also to simulate the breach evolution and the downstream propagation of...