Sea level rise, a consequence of climate change, is one of the biggest challenges that countries and regions with coastal lowlands will face in the medium term. This study proposes a methodology for assessing the vulnerability to sea-level rise on the Atlantic coast of mainland Portugal. Some scenarios of extreme sea levels for different return periods and extreme flooding events were estimated for 2050 and 2100, as proposed by the European Directive 2007/60/EC. A set of physical parameters are considered for the multi-attribute analysis based on the Analytic Hierarchy Process, in order to define a Physical Vulnerability Index fundamental to assess coastal vulnerability. For each sea-level rise scenario, coastal vulnerability maps, with a spatial resolution of 20 m, are produced at a national scale to identify areas more vulnerable to sea-level rise, which are key elements for triggering adaptation plans for such vulnerable regions. For 2050 and 2100, it is estimated that there will be 903 and 1146 km² of vulnerable areas, respectively; the Lisbon district being identified as the most vulnerable in both scenarios. Results are available as a Web Map Service for the Portuguese public entities, and through a web map viewer for the public and communities in general.

Portugal’s mainland has hundreds of thousands of people living in the Atlantic coastal zone, with numerous high economic value activities and a high number of infrastructures that must be adapted and protected from natural coastal hazards, namely, extreme storms and sea level rise (SLR). In the context of climate change adaptation strategies, a reliable and accurate assessment of the physical vulnerability to SLR is crucial. This study is a contribution to the implementation of flooding standards imposed by the European Directive 2007/60/EC, which requires each member state to assess the risk associated to SLR and floods caused by extreme events. Therefore, coastal hazard on the Atlantic Coast of Portugal’s mainland was evaluated for 2025, 2050, and 2100 over the whole extension due to SLR, with different sea level scenarios for different extreme event return periods. A coastal probabilistic flooding map was produced based on the developed probabilistic cartography methodology using geographic information system (GIS) technology. The Extreme Flood Hazard Index (EFHI) was determined on probabilistic flood bases using five probability intervals of 20% amplitude. For a given SLR scenario, the EFHI is expressed, on the probabilistic flooding maps for an extreme tidal maximum level, by five hazard classes ranging from 1 (Very Low) to 5 (Extreme).

Portugal Mainland has hundreds of thousands of people living in the Atlantic coastal zone, with numerous high economic value activities and a high number of infrastructures that must be protected from natural coastal hazard, namely extreme storms and sea level rise (SLR). In the context of climate change adaptation strategies, a reliable and accurate assessment of the physical vulnerability to SLR is crucial. This study is a contribution to the implementation of flooding standards imposed by the European Directive 2007/60/EC, which requires each member state to assess the risk associated to SLR and floods caused by extreme events. Therefore, coastal hazard in the Continental Atlantic coast of Portugal Mainland was evaluated for 2025, 2050 and 2100 in the whole coastal extension with different sea level scenarios for different extreme event return periods and due to SLR. A coastal flooding probabilistic map was produced based on the developed methodology using Geographic Information Systems (GIS) technology. The Extreme Flood Hazard Index (EFHI) was determined on flood probabilistic bases through five probability intervals of 20% of amplitude. For a given SLR scenario, the EFHI is expressed, on the probabilistic flooding maps for an extreme tidal maximum level, by five hazard classes ranging from 1 (Very Low) to 5 (Extreme).

The sea level rise, a consequence of climate change, is one of the biggest challenges that countries and regions with coastal lowland areas will face in the medium term. This study proposes a methodology for assessing the vulnerability to sea level rise (SLR) on the Atlantic coast of Portugal mainland. Some scenarios of extreme sea level for different return periods and extreme flooding events were estimated for 2050 and 2100, as proposed by the European Union Directive 2007/60/EC. A set of physical parameters are considered for the multi-attribute analysis technique implemented by the Analytic Hierarchy Process, in order to define a Physical Vulnerability Index fundamental to assess coastal vulnerability. For each SLR scenario, coastal vulnerability maps, with spatial resolution of 20 m, are produced at national scale to identify areas most at risk of SLR, constituting key documents for triggering adaptation plans for such vulnerable regions. For 2050 and 2100, it is estimated 903 km2 and 1146 km2 of vulnerable area, respectively, being the district of Lisbon the most vulnerable district in both scenarios. Results are available through a Web Map Service, for Portuguese public entities, and through a web map viewer for public and communities in general.