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Why do citizens’ decisions made because they favour the mitigation of climate change outnumber those made because they favour adaptation to its impacts? Using data collected in a survey of 338 citizens of Malmö, Sweden, we tested two hypotheses. H1: the motivation for personal decisions because they favour adaptation to the impacts of climate change correlates with the decision-making agent´s knowledge of specific local impacts of climate change, and H2: the motivation for personal decisions because they favour mitigation of climate change correlates with the risk perception of the decision-making agent. While decisions made because they favour mitigation correlated with negative net values of expected impacts of climate change (risk perception), decisions made because they favour adaptation correlated with its absolute value unless tipping point behaviour occurred. Tipping point behaviour occurs here when the decision-making agent abstains from decisions in response to climate change in spite of a strongly negative or positive net value of expected impacts. Hence, the decision-making agents´ lack of knowledge of specific climate change impacts inhibited decisions promoting adaptation. Moreover, positive experiences of climate change inhibited mitigation decisions. Discussing the results, we emphasised the importance of understanding the drivers of adaptation and mitigation decisions. In particular, we stress that attention needs to be paid to the balance between decisions solving problems ‘here and now’ and those focusing on the ‘there and then’.
Kristina Blennow; Johannes Persson. To Mitigate or Adapt? Explaining Why Citizens Responding to Climate Change Favour the Former. Land 2021, 10, 240 .
AMA StyleKristina Blennow, Johannes Persson. To Mitigate or Adapt? Explaining Why Citizens Responding to Climate Change Favour the Former. Land. 2021; 10 (3):240.
Chicago/Turabian StyleKristina Blennow; Johannes Persson. 2021. "To Mitigate or Adapt? Explaining Why Citizens Responding to Climate Change Favour the Former." Land 10, no. 3: 240.
K Blennow; J Persson; L M S Gonçalves; A Borys; I Dutcă; J Hynynen; E Janeczko; M Lyubenova; J Merganič; K Merganičová; M Peltoniemi; M Petr; F Reboredo; G Vacchiano; C P O Reyer. The role of beliefs, expectations and values in decision-making favoring climate change adaptation—implications for communications with European forest professionals. Environmental Research Letters 2020, 15, 114061 .
AMA StyleK Blennow, J Persson, L M S Gonçalves, A Borys, I Dutcă, J Hynynen, E Janeczko, M Lyubenova, J Merganič, K Merganičová, M Peltoniemi, M Petr, F Reboredo, G Vacchiano, C P O Reyer. The role of beliefs, expectations and values in decision-making favoring climate change adaptation—implications for communications with European forest professionals. Environmental Research Letters. 2020; 15 (11):114061.
Chicago/Turabian StyleK Blennow; J Persson; L M S Gonçalves; A Borys; I Dutcă; J Hynynen; E Janeczko; M Lyubenova; J Merganič; K Merganičová; M Peltoniemi; M Petr; F Reboredo; G Vacchiano; C P O Reyer. 2020. "The role of beliefs, expectations and values in decision-making favoring climate change adaptation—implications for communications with European forest professionals." Environmental Research Letters 15, no. 11: 114061.
The role of values in climate-related decision-making is a prominent theme of climate communication research. The present study examines whether forest professionals are more driven by values than scientists are, and if this results in value polarization. A questionnaire was designed to elicit and assess the values assigned to expected effects of climate change by forest professionals and scientists working on forests and climate change in Europe. The countries involved covered a north-to-south and west-to-east gradient across Europe, representing a wide range of bio-climatic conditions and a mix of economic–social–political structures. We show that European forest professionals and scientists do not exhibit polarized expectations about the values of specific impacts of climate change on forests in their countries. In fact, few differences between forest professionals and scientists were found. However, there are interesting differences in the expected values of forest professionals with regard to climate change impacts across European countries. In Northern European countries, the aggregated values of the expected effects are more neutral than they are in Southern Europe, where they are more negative. Expectations about impacts on timber production, economic returns, and regulatory ecosystem services are mostly negative, while expectations about biodiversity and energy production are mostly positive.
Johannes Persson; Kristina Blennow; Luísa Gonçalves; Alexander Borys; Ioan Dutcă; Jari Hynynen; Emilia Janeczko; Mariyana Lyubenova; Simon Martel; Jan Merganic; Katarína Merganičová; Mikko Peltoniemi; Michal Petr; Fernando H. Reboredo; Giorgio Vacchiano; Christopher P.O. Reyer. No polarization–Expected Values of Climate Change Impacts among European Forest Professionals and Scientists. Sustainability 2020, 12, 2659 .
AMA StyleJohannes Persson, Kristina Blennow, Luísa Gonçalves, Alexander Borys, Ioan Dutcă, Jari Hynynen, Emilia Janeczko, Mariyana Lyubenova, Simon Martel, Jan Merganic, Katarína Merganičová, Mikko Peltoniemi, Michal Petr, Fernando H. Reboredo, Giorgio Vacchiano, Christopher P.O. Reyer. No polarization–Expected Values of Climate Change Impacts among European Forest Professionals and Scientists. Sustainability. 2020; 12 (7):2659.
Chicago/Turabian StyleJohannes Persson; Kristina Blennow; Luísa Gonçalves; Alexander Borys; Ioan Dutcă; Jari Hynynen; Emilia Janeczko; Mariyana Lyubenova; Simon Martel; Jan Merganic; Katarína Merganičová; Mikko Peltoniemi; Michal Petr; Fernando H. Reboredo; Giorgio Vacchiano; Christopher P.O. Reyer. 2020. "No polarization–Expected Values of Climate Change Impacts among European Forest Professionals and Scientists." Sustainability 12, no. 7: 2659.
Values related to culture, identity, community cohesion and sense of place have sometimes been downplayed in the climate change discourse. However, they have been suggested to be not only important to citizens but the values most vulnerable to climate change. Here we test four empirical consequences of the suggestion: (i) at least 50% of the locations citizens' consider to be the most important locations in their municipality are chosen because they represent these values, (ii) locations representing these values have a high probability of being damaged by climate change induced sea level rise, (iii) citizens for which these values are particularly strongly held less strongly believe in the local effects of climate change, and (iv) citizens for which these values are particularly strongly held less strongly believe that they have experienced the effects of climate change. The tests were made using survey data collected in 2014 from 326 citizens owning property in Höganäs municipality, Sweden, and included values elicited using a new methodology separating instrumental values from end values, and using the former (which strictly speaking should be seen as estimates of usefulness rather than as aims in themselves) as stepping stones to pinpoint the latter, that represent the true interests of the respondents. The results provide the first evidence that, albeit frequent, values related to culture, identity, community cohesion and sense of place are not the values most vulnerable to climate change. This in turn indicates a need to further investigate the vulnerability of these values to climate change, using a methodology that clearly distinguishes between instrumental and end values.
Kristina Blennow; Erik Persson; Johannes Persson. Are values related to culture, identity, community cohesion and sense of place the values most vulnerable to climate change? PLOS ONE 2019, 14, e0210426 .
AMA StyleKristina Blennow, Erik Persson, Johannes Persson. Are values related to culture, identity, community cohesion and sense of place the values most vulnerable to climate change? PLOS ONE. 2019; 14 (1):e0210426.
Chicago/Turabian StyleKristina Blennow; Erik Persson; Johannes Persson. 2019. "Are values related to culture, identity, community cohesion and sense of place the values most vulnerable to climate change?" PLOS ONE 14, no. 1: e0210426.
Earth system models (ESMs) are currently the most advanced tools with which to study the interactions among humans, ecosystem productivity, and the climate. The inclusion of storm damage in ESMs has long been hampered by their big-leaf approach, which ignores the canopy structure information that is required for process-based wind-throw modelling. Recently the big-leaf assumptions in the large-scale land surface model ORCHIDEE-CAN were replaced by a three-dimensional description of the canopy structure. This opened the way to the integration of the processes from the small-scale wind damage risk model ForestGALES into ORCHIDEE-CAN. The integration of ForestGALES into ORCHIDEE-CAN required, however, developing numerically efficient solutions to deal with (1) landscape heterogeneity, i.e. account for newly established forest edges for the parameterization of gusts; (2) downscaling spatially and temporally aggregated wind fields to obtain more realistic wind speeds that would represents gusts; and (3) downscaling storm damage within the 2500 km2 pixels of ORCHIDEE-CAN. This new version of ORCHIDEE-CAN was parameterized over Sweden. Subsequently, the performance of the model was tested against data for historical storms in southern Sweden between 1951 and 2010 and south-western France in 2009. In years without big storms, here defined as a storm damaging less than 15 × 106 m3 of wood in Sweden, the model error is 1.62 × 106 m3, which is about 100 % of the observed damage. For years with big storms, such as Gudrun in 2005, the model error increased to 5.05 × 106 m3, which is between 10 and 50 % of the observed damage. When the same model parameters were used over France, the model reproduced a decrease in leaf area index and an increase in albedo, in accordance with SPOT-VGT and MODIS records following the passing of Cyclone Klaus in 2009. The current version of ORCHIDEE-CAN (revision 4262) is therefore expected to have the capability to capture the dynamics of forest structure due to storm disturbance on both regional and global scales, although the empirical parameters calculating gustiness from the gridded wind fields and storm damage from critical wind speeds may benefit from regional fitting.
Yi-Ying Chen; Barry Gardiner; Ferenc Pasztor; Kristina Blennow; James Ryder; Aude Valade; Kim Naudts; Juliane Otto; Matthew McGrath; Carole Planque; Sebastiaan Luyssaert. Simulating damage for wind storms in the land surface model ORCHIDEE-CAN (revision 4262). Geoscientific Model Development 2018, 11, 771 -791.
AMA StyleYi-Ying Chen, Barry Gardiner, Ferenc Pasztor, Kristina Blennow, James Ryder, Aude Valade, Kim Naudts, Juliane Otto, Matthew McGrath, Carole Planque, Sebastiaan Luyssaert. Simulating damage for wind storms in the land surface model ORCHIDEE-CAN (revision 4262). Geoscientific Model Development. 2018; 11 (2):771-791.
Chicago/Turabian StyleYi-Ying Chen; Barry Gardiner; Ferenc Pasztor; Kristina Blennow; James Ryder; Aude Valade; Kim Naudts; Juliane Otto; Matthew McGrath; Carole Planque; Sebastiaan Luyssaert. 2018. "Simulating damage for wind storms in the land surface model ORCHIDEE-CAN (revision 4262)." Geoscientific Model Development 11, no. 2: 771-791.
Earth System Models (ESMs) are currently the most advanced tools with which to study the interactions between humans, ecosystem productivity and the climate. The inclusion of storm damage in ESMs has long been hampered by their big-leaf approach which ignores the canopy structure information that is required for process-based wind throw modelling. Recently the big-leaf assumptions in the large scale land surface model ORCHIDEE-CAN were replaced by a three dimensional description of the canopy structure. This opened the way to the integration of the processes from the small-scale wind damage risk model ForestGALES into ORCHIDEE-CAN. The resulting enhanced model was completed by an empirical function to convert the difference between actual and critical wind speeds into forest damage. This new version of ORCHIDEE-CAN was parametrized over Sweden. Subsequently, the performance of the model was tested against data for historical storms in Southern Sweden between 1951 and 2010, and South-western France in 2009. In years without big storms, here defined as a storm damaging less than 15 × 106 m3 of wood in Sweden, the model error is 1.62 × 106 m3 which is about 100 % of the observed damage. For years with big storms, such as Gudrun in 2005, the model error increased to 5.05 × 106 m3 which is between 10 % and 50 % of the observed damage. When the same model parameters were used over France, the model reproduced a decrease in leaf area index and an increase in albedo, in accordance with SPOT-VGT and MODIS records following the passing of Cyclone Klaus in 2009. The current version of ORCHIDEE-CAN (revision 4262) is therefore expected to have the capability to capture the dynamics of forest structure due to storm disturbance both at regional and global scales, although the empirical parameters calculating gustiness from the gridded wind fields and storm damage from critical wind speeds may benefit from regional fitting.
Yi-Ying Chen; Barry Gardiner; Ferenc Pasztor; Kristina Blennow; James Ryder; Aude Valade; Kim Naudts; Juliane Otto; Matthew J. McGrath; Carole Planque; Sebastiaan Luyssaert. Simulating damage for wind storms in the land surface model ORCHIDEE-CAN (revision 4262). 2017, 1 -34.
AMA StyleYi-Ying Chen, Barry Gardiner, Ferenc Pasztor, Kristina Blennow, James Ryder, Aude Valade, Kim Naudts, Juliane Otto, Matthew J. McGrath, Carole Planque, Sebastiaan Luyssaert. Simulating damage for wind storms in the land surface model ORCHIDEE-CAN (revision 4262). . 2017; ():1-34.
Chicago/Turabian StyleYi-Ying Chen; Barry Gardiner; Ferenc Pasztor; Kristina Blennow; James Ryder; Aude Valade; Kim Naudts; Juliane Otto; Matthew J. McGrath; Carole Planque; Sebastiaan Luyssaert. 2017. "Simulating damage for wind storms in the land surface model ORCHIDEE-CAN (revision 4262)." , no. : 1-34.
Recent studies projecting future climate change impacts on forests mainly consider either the effects of climate change on productivity or on disturbances. However, productivity and disturbances are intrinsically linked because 1) disturbances directly affect forest productivity (e.g. via a reduction in leaf area, growing stock or resource-use efficiency), and 2) disturbance susceptibility is often coupled to a certain development phase of the forest with productivity determining the time a forest is in this specific phase of susceptibility. The objective of this paper is to provide an overview of forest productivity changes in different forest regions in Europe under climate change, and partition these changes into effects induced by climate change alone and by climate change and disturbances. We present projections of climate change impacts on forest productivity from state-of-the-art forest models that dynamically simulate forest productivity and the effects of the main European disturbance agents (fire, storm, insects), driven by the same climate scenario in seven forest case studies along a large climatic gradient throughout Europe. Our study shows that, in most cases, including disturbances in the simulations exaggerate ongoing productivity declines or cancel out productivity gains in response to climate change. In fewer cases, disturbances also increase productivity or buffer climate-change induced productivity losses, e.g. because low severity fires can alleviate resource competition and increase fertilization. Even though our results cannot simply be extrapolated to other types of forests and disturbances, we argue that it is necessary to interpret climate change-induced productivity and disturbance changes jointly to capture the full range of climate change impacts on forests and to plan adaptation measures.
Christopher P O Reyer; Stephen Bathgate; Kristina Blennow; Jose Borges; Harald Bugmann; Sylvain Delzon; Sonia P Faias; Jordi Garcia-Gonzalo; Barry Gardiner; Jose Ramon Gonzalez Olabarria; Carlos Gracia; Juan Guerra-Hernández; Seppo Kellomäki; Koen Kramer; Manfred J Lexer; Marcus Lindner; Ernst van der Maaten; Michael Maroschek; Bart Muys; Bruce Nicoll; Marc Palahi; João Hn Palma; Joana A Paulo; Heli Peltola; Timo Pukkala; Werner Rammer; Duncan Ray; Santiago (Santi) Sabaté; Mart-Jan Schelhaas; Rupert Seidl; Christian Temperli; Margarida Tomé; Rasoul Yousefpour; Niklaus Zimmermann; Marc Hanewinkel. Are forest disturbances amplifying or canceling out climate change-induced productivity changes in European forests? Environmental Research Letters 2017, 12, 034027 -034027.
AMA StyleChristopher P O Reyer, Stephen Bathgate, Kristina Blennow, Jose Borges, Harald Bugmann, Sylvain Delzon, Sonia P Faias, Jordi Garcia-Gonzalo, Barry Gardiner, Jose Ramon Gonzalez Olabarria, Carlos Gracia, Juan Guerra-Hernández, Seppo Kellomäki, Koen Kramer, Manfred J Lexer, Marcus Lindner, Ernst van der Maaten, Michael Maroschek, Bart Muys, Bruce Nicoll, Marc Palahi, João Hn Palma, Joana A Paulo, Heli Peltola, Timo Pukkala, Werner Rammer, Duncan Ray, Santiago (Santi) Sabaté, Mart-Jan Schelhaas, Rupert Seidl, Christian Temperli, Margarida Tomé, Rasoul Yousefpour, Niklaus Zimmermann, Marc Hanewinkel. Are forest disturbances amplifying or canceling out climate change-induced productivity changes in European forests? Environmental Research Letters. 2017; 12 (3):034027-034027.
Chicago/Turabian StyleChristopher P O Reyer; Stephen Bathgate; Kristina Blennow; Jose Borges; Harald Bugmann; Sylvain Delzon; Sonia P Faias; Jordi Garcia-Gonzalo; Barry Gardiner; Jose Ramon Gonzalez Olabarria; Carlos Gracia; Juan Guerra-Hernández; Seppo Kellomäki; Koen Kramer; Manfred J Lexer; Marcus Lindner; Ernst van der Maaten; Michael Maroschek; Bart Muys; Bruce Nicoll; Marc Palahi; João Hn Palma; Joana A Paulo; Heli Peltola; Timo Pukkala; Werner Rammer; Duncan Ray; Santiago (Santi) Sabaté; Mart-Jan Schelhaas; Rupert Seidl; Christian Temperli; Margarida Tomé; Rasoul Yousefpour; Niklaus Zimmermann; Marc Hanewinkel. 2017. "Are forest disturbances amplifying or canceling out climate change-induced productivity changes in European forests?" Environmental Research Letters 12, no. 3: 034027-034027.
Do forest owners’ levels of education or value profiles explain their responses to climate change? The cultural cognition thesis (CCT) has cast serious doubt on the familiar and often criticized "knowledge deficit" model, which says that laypeople are less concerned about climate change because they lack scientific knowledge. Advocates of CCT maintain that citizens with the highest degrees of scientific literacy and numeracy are not the most concerned about climate change. Rather, this is the group in which cultural polarization is greatest, and thus individuals with more limited scientific literacy and numeracy are more concerned about climate change under certain circumstances than those with higher scientific literacy and numeracy. The CCT predicts that cultural and other values will trump the positive effects of education on some forest owners' attitudes to climate change. Here, using survey data collected in 2010 from 766 private forest owners in Sweden and Germany, we provide the first evidence that perceptions of climate change risk are uncorrelated with, or sometimes positively correlated with, education level and can be explained without reference to cultural or other values. We conclude that the recent claim that advanced scientific literacy and numeracy polarizes perceptions of climate change risk is unsupported by the forest owner data. In neither of the two countries was university education found to reduce the perception of risk from climate change. Indeed in most cases university education increased the perception of risk. Even more importantly, the effect of university education was not dependent on the individuals' value profile.
Kristina Blennow; Johannes Persson; Erik Persson; Marc Hanewinkel. Forest Owners' Response to Climate Change: University Education Trumps Value Profile. PLOS ONE 2016, 11, e0155137 .
AMA StyleKristina Blennow, Johannes Persson, Erik Persson, Marc Hanewinkel. Forest Owners' Response to Climate Change: University Education Trumps Value Profile. PLOS ONE. 2016; 11 (5):e0155137.
Chicago/Turabian StyleKristina Blennow; Johannes Persson; Erik Persson; Marc Hanewinkel. 2016. "Forest Owners' Response to Climate Change: University Education Trumps Value Profile." PLOS ONE 11, no. 5: e0155137.
Climate vulnerability of managed forest ecosystems is not only determined by ecological processes but also influenced by the adaptive capacity of forest managers. To better understand adaptive behaviour, we conducted a questionnaire study among current and future forest managers (i.e. active managers and forestry students) in Austria. We found widespread belief in climate change (94.7 % of respondents), and no significant difference between current and future managers. Based on intended responses to climate-induced ecosystem changes, we distinguished four groups: highly sensitive managers (27.7 %), those mainly sensitive to changes in growth and regeneration processes (46.7 %), managers primarily sensitive to regeneration changes (11.2 %), and insensitive managers (14.4 %). Experiences and beliefs with regard to disturbance-related tree mortality were found to particularly influence a manager’s sensitivity to climate change. Our findings underline the importance of the social dimension of climate change adaptation, and suggest potentially strong adaptive feedbacks between ecosystems and their managers.
Rupert Seidl; Filip Aggestam; Werner Rammer; Kristina Blennow; Bernhard Wolfslehner. The sensitivity of current and future forest managers to climate-induced changes in ecological processes. Ambio 2015, 45, 430 -441.
AMA StyleRupert Seidl, Filip Aggestam, Werner Rammer, Kristina Blennow, Bernhard Wolfslehner. The sensitivity of current and future forest managers to climate-induced changes in ecological processes. Ambio. 2015; 45 (4):430-441.
Chicago/Turabian StyleRupert Seidl; Filip Aggestam; Werner Rammer; Kristina Blennow; Bernhard Wolfslehner. 2015. "The sensitivity of current and future forest managers to climate-induced changes in ecological processes." Ambio 45, no. 4: 430-441.
We estimated the effect of adapting forest management to reduce the risk of wind damage under climate change on life-style services and forest yield in a south-Swedish forest using an integrated modelling approach. The ECHAM5/CCLM models had been used to produce a reference climate and a climate change scenario for the A1B emission scenario. Using the FinnFor model we estimated the effect of the climate change scenario on the site index for three common commercial tree species for the period 2001–2100. The adjusted site index was applied in projections of the forest using the Forest Time Machine model. The WINDA-GALES model was used to calculate the probability of wind damage in simulated future states of the forest. Effects of increasing forest owner motivation to take measures to adapt to climate change were simulated by comparing the effects of introducing adaptive measures in years 2001 and 2051, respectively. These adaptive measures had been identified in consultation with stakeholders. In the simulations, adaptive regimes resulted in generally increased yield, increased hunting potential and a higher number of forest management operations to be carried out, although other aspects of recreation services were reduced. The net return remained unaffected by most of the adaptive forest management regimes. The simulations were made without accounting for effects of predicted wind damage on the states of the forest. Forest owners perceiving increased risk of wind damage but also risk to their life-style would have to balance adaptive measures between these risks. We conclude that adapting forest management to reduce the risk of wind damage may impact on life-style services. Hence, this may affect the process of adaptation to an increasing risk of wind damage in southern Sweden.
Mikael Andersson; Seppo Kellomäki; Barry Gardiner; Kristina Blennow. Life-style services and yield from south-Swedish forests adaptively managed against the risk of wind damage: a simulation study. Regional Environmental Change 2014, 15, 1489 -1500.
AMA StyleMikael Andersson, Seppo Kellomäki, Barry Gardiner, Kristina Blennow. Life-style services and yield from south-Swedish forests adaptively managed against the risk of wind damage: a simulation study. Regional Environmental Change. 2014; 15 (8):1489-1500.
Chicago/Turabian StyleMikael Andersson; Seppo Kellomäki; Barry Gardiner; Kristina Blennow. 2014. "Life-style services and yield from south-Swedish forests adaptively managed against the risk of wind damage: a simulation study." Regional Environmental Change 15, no. 8: 1489-1500.
Kristina Blennow; Erik Persson; Marcus Lindner; Sónia Pacheco Faias; Marc Hanewinkel. Forest owner motivations and attitudes towards supplying biomass for energy in Europe. Biomass and Bioenergy 2014, 67, 223 -230.
AMA StyleKristina Blennow, Erik Persson, Marcus Lindner, Sónia Pacheco Faias, Marc Hanewinkel. Forest owner motivations and attitudes towards supplying biomass for energy in Europe. Biomass and Bioenergy. 2014; 67 ():223-230.
Chicago/Turabian StyleKristina Blennow; Erik Persson; Marcus Lindner; Sónia Pacheco Faias; Marc Hanewinkel. 2014. "Forest owner motivations and attitudes towards supplying biomass for energy in Europe." Biomass and Bioenergy 67, no. : 223-230.
The climate change adaptation tool Local Climate Impacts Profile (LCLIP), developed and previously widely
Annika Carlsson Kanyama; Annika Carlsson-Kanyama And Kristina Blennow. Evaluating the Local Climate Impacts Profile Tool for Assessing Local Impacts of Extreme Weather Events. Journal of Geography & Natural Disasters 2014, 4, 1 .
AMA StyleAnnika Carlsson Kanyama, Annika Carlsson-Kanyama And Kristina Blennow. Evaluating the Local Climate Impacts Profile Tool for Assessing Local Impacts of Extreme Weather Events. Journal of Geography & Natural Disasters. 2014; 4 (1):1.
Chicago/Turabian StyleAnnika Carlsson Kanyama; Annika Carlsson-Kanyama And Kristina Blennow. 2014. "Evaluating the Local Climate Impacts Profile Tool for Assessing Local Impacts of Extreme Weather Events." Journal of Geography & Natural Disasters 4, no. 1: 1.
Rupert Seidl; Werner Rammer; Kristina Blennow. Simulating wind disturbance impacts on forest landscapes: Tree-level heterogeneity matters. Environmental Modelling & Software 2014, 51, 1 -11.
AMA StyleRupert Seidl, Werner Rammer, Kristina Blennow. Simulating wind disturbance impacts on forest landscapes: Tree-level heterogeneity matters. Environmental Modelling & Software. 2014; 51 ():1-11.
Chicago/Turabian StyleRupert Seidl; Werner Rammer; Kristina Blennow. 2014. "Simulating wind disturbance impacts on forest landscapes: Tree-level heterogeneity matters." Environmental Modelling & Software 51, no. : 1-11.
Kristina Blennow; Johannes Persson; Annika Wallin; Niklas Vareman. Understanding risk in forest ecosystem services: implications for effective risk management, communication and planning. Forestry 2013, 87, 219 -228.
AMA StyleKristina Blennow, Johannes Persson, Annika Wallin, Niklas Vareman. Understanding risk in forest ecosystem services: implications for effective risk management, communication and planning. Forestry. 2013; 87 (2):219-228.
Chicago/Turabian StyleKristina Blennow; Johannes Persson; Annika Wallin; Niklas Vareman. 2013. "Understanding risk in forest ecosystem services: implications for effective risk management, communication and planning." Forestry 87, no. 2: 219-228.
Available climate change scenarios indicate that climate change will affect elements of the Swedish climate, and that the exposure and sensitivity of the forest to climate change will differ between regions. Adaptation to climate change is conceptually closely linked to the reduction of the risk of disasters. Based on contemporary theory in behavioural risk research, the aim was to improve the knowledge on the process of adaptation of forest management to climate change among Swedish private individual forest owners. The responses from two questionnaires from 1999 to 2004, respectively, were analysed. Adaptation of forest management to climate change by private individual forest owners in what is currently the hemiboreal bio-climatic zone of Sweden was quantified and shown to increase over the five year period. In 2004 adaptive measures had been taken on a limited fraction of the forest land owned by private individuals in three study areas located along a latitudinal gradient ranging from the nemoral to the boreal bio-climatic zones in Sweden. Adaptive measures were more frequent in two southern study areas than in a northern study area. Measures taken to adapt were similar in all three study areas, except for those strongly conditioned by the current local climate. Among forest owners who had taken measure to adapt, perceptions of much higher risk due to climate change was more frequent for the risk of damage by wind, drought, fungi, and insects than for other risk factors. Further improvement of the knowledge on how the individual forest owners' learn and perceive of climate change, its impacts on risks and options for adaptation is required to develop and successfully implement adaptive climate change policies.
Kristina Blennow. Adaptation of forest management to climate change among private individual forest owners in Sweden. Forest Policy and Economics 2012, 24, 41 -47.
AMA StyleKristina Blennow. Adaptation of forest management to climate change among private individual forest owners in Sweden. Forest Policy and Economics. 2012; 24 ():41-47.
Chicago/Turabian StyleKristina Blennow. 2012. "Adaptation of forest management to climate change among private individual forest owners in Sweden." Forest Policy and Economics 24, no. : 41-47.
Knowledge of factors that trigger human response to climate change is crucial for effective climate change policy communication. Climate change has been claimed to have low salience as a risk issue because it cannot be directly experienced. Still, personal factors such as strength of belief in local effects of climate change have been shown to correlate strongly with responses to climate change and there is a growing literature on the hypothesis that personal experience of climate change (and/or its effects) explains responses to climate change. Here we provide, using survey data from 845 private forest owners operating in a wide range of bio-climatic as well as economic-social-political structures in a latitudinal gradient across Europe, the first evidence that the personal strength of belief and perception of local effects of climate change, highly significantly explain human responses to climate change. A logistic regression model was fitted to the two variables, estimating expected probabilities ranging from 0.07 (SD ±0.01) to 0.81 (SD ±0.03) for self-reported adaptive measures taken. Adding socio-demographic variables improved the fit, estimating expected probabilities ranging from 0.022 (SD ±0.008) to 0.91 (SD ±0.02). We conclude that to explain and predict adaptation to climate change, the combination of personal experience and belief must be considered.
Kristina Blennow; Johannes Persson; Margarida Tomé; Marc Hanewinkel. Climate Change: Believing and Seeing Implies Adapting. PLoS ONE 2012, 7, e50182 .
AMA StyleKristina Blennow, Johannes Persson, Margarida Tomé, Marc Hanewinkel. Climate Change: Believing and Seeing Implies Adapting. PLoS ONE. 2012; 7 (11):e50182.
Chicago/Turabian StyleKristina Blennow; Johannes Persson; Margarida Tomé; Marc Hanewinkel. 2012. "Climate Change: Believing and Seeing Implies Adapting." PLoS ONE 7, no. 11: e50182.
Wind is the dominant agent of damage in forests in Western Europe. Traditional wind-damage models calculate a probability for damage or a critical wind speed at which damage occurs. However, in a dynamic vegetation model actual damage to stands and individual trees is needed to get a dynamical progression of the vegetation. We present a prototype for a new approach to modelling forest wind damage at the regional scale, which we incorporate within a dynamic vegetation model. The approach is based on knowledge from both empirical and mechanical models and calculates the damaged fraction of a cohort based on wind load and a sensitivity that depends on the current physical state and history of the cohort in relation to the ecosystem. The modelling concept has been developed, calibrated and evaluated for Swedish conditions but can be applicable to other similar areas with minor modification. Because of the stochastic nature of local wind load and the difficulty of describing the stand-level exposure, the ability to explain observed damage at stand level was low. Regional level variation in damage, which more depends on the wind load, was however explained reasonably well (R2 = 0.43). We suggest that this is a useful concept for evaluating alternatives of forest management under different climate scenarios in the process of adaptation to future storm-damage risks.
Fredrik Lagergren; Anna Maria Jönsson; Kristina Blennow; Benjamin Smith. Implementing storm damage in a dynamic vegetation model for regional applications in Sweden. Ecological Modelling 2012, 247, 71 -82.
AMA StyleFredrik Lagergren, Anna Maria Jönsson, Kristina Blennow, Benjamin Smith. Implementing storm damage in a dynamic vegetation model for regional applications in Sweden. Ecological Modelling. 2012; 247 ():71-82.
Chicago/Turabian StyleFredrik Lagergren; Anna Maria Jönsson; Kristina Blennow; Benjamin Smith. 2012. "Implementing storm damage in a dynamic vegetation model for regional applications in Sweden." Ecological Modelling 247, no. : 71-82.
In recent decades the frequency and severity of natural disturbances by e.g., strong winds and insect outbreaks has increased considerably in many forest ecosystems around the world. Future climate change is expected to further intensify disturbance regimes, which makes addressing disturbances in ecosystem management a top priority. As a prerequisite a broader understanding of disturbance impacts and ecosystem responses is needed. With regard to the effects of strong winds – the most detrimental disturbance agent in Europe – monitoring and management has focused on structural damage, i.e., tree mortality from uprooting and stem breakage. Effects on the functioning of trees surviving the storm (e.g., their productivity and allocation) have been rarely accounted for to date. Here we show that growth reduction was significant and pervasive in a 6.79·million hectare forest landscape in southern Sweden following the storm Gudrun (January 2005). Wind-related growth reduction in Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) forests surviving the storm exceeded 10% in the worst hit regions, and was closely related to maximum gust wind speed (R2 = 0.849) and structural wind damage (R2 = 0.782). At the landscape scale, wind-related growth reduction amounted to 3.0 million m3 in the three years following Gudrun. It thus exceeds secondary damage from bark beetles after Gudrun as well as the long-term average storm damage from uprooting and stem breakage in Sweden. We conclude that the impact of strong winds on forest ecosystems is not limited to the immediately visible area of structural damage, and call for a broader consideration of disturbance effects on ecosystem structure and functioning in the context of forest management and climate change mitigation.
Rupert Seidl; Kristina Blennow. Pervasive Growth Reduction in Norway Spruce Forests following Wind Disturbance. PLOS ONE 2012, 7, e33301 .
AMA StyleRupert Seidl, Kristina Blennow. Pervasive Growth Reduction in Norway Spruce Forests following Wind Disturbance. PLOS ONE. 2012; 7 (3):e33301.
Chicago/Turabian StyleRupert Seidl; Kristina Blennow. 2012. "Pervasive Growth Reduction in Norway Spruce Forests following Wind Disturbance." PLOS ONE 7, no. 3: e33301.
The authors thank Mattias Boman, Jörg Brunet, Per Magnus Ekö, Annika Felton, Nils Fahlvik, Matts Lindbladh, Magnus Löf, Leif Mattson, and Rolf Övergaard, for helpful comments and contributions to this research. The authors also thank Svante Claesson, Göran Kempe, and Jan‐Olaf Loman for their advice regarding forestry statistics. This research would not be possible without financial and logistical support from the Southern Swedish Forest Research Centre, SLU, Alnarp. Two anonymous reviewers improved an earlier draft of this paper.
Adam Felton; Lindsey Ellingson; Erik Andersson; Lars Drössler; Kristina Blennow. Adapting production forests in southern Sweden to climate change. International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management 2010, 2, 84 -97.
AMA StyleAdam Felton, Lindsey Ellingson, Erik Andersson, Lars Drössler, Kristina Blennow. Adapting production forests in southern Sweden to climate change. International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management. 2010; 2 (1):84-97.
Chicago/Turabian StyleAdam Felton; Lindsey Ellingson; Erik Andersson; Lars Drössler; Kristina Blennow. 2010. "Adapting production forests in southern Sweden to climate change." International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management 2, no. 1: 84-97.
Kristina Blennow; Mikael Andersson; Ola Sallnäs; Erika Olofsson. Climate change and the probability of wind damage in two Swedish forests. Forest Ecology and Management 2010, 259, 818 -830.
AMA StyleKristina Blennow, Mikael Andersson, Ola Sallnäs, Erika Olofsson. Climate change and the probability of wind damage in two Swedish forests. Forest Ecology and Management. 2010; 259 (4):818-830.
Chicago/Turabian StyleKristina Blennow; Mikael Andersson; Ola Sallnäs; Erika Olofsson. 2010. "Climate change and the probability of wind damage in two Swedish forests." Forest Ecology and Management 259, no. 4: 818-830.