Water quality assessment is an important foundation of water resource protection and is affected by many indicators. The dynamic and fuzzy changes of water quality lead to problems for proper assessment. This paper explores a method which is in accordance with the water quality changes. The proposed method is based on the variable fuzzy pattern recognition (VFPR) model and combines the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) model with the entropy weight (EW) method. The proposed method was applied to dynamically assess the water quality of Biliuhe Reservoir (Dailan, China). The results show that the water quality level is between levels 2 and 3 and worse in August or September, caused by the increasing water temperature and rainfall. Weights and methods are compared and random errors of the values of indicators are analyzed. It is concluded that the proposed method has advantages of dynamism, fuzzification and stability by considering the interval influence of multiple indicators and using the average level characteristic values of four models as results.

Reservoir sediments act as important receivers and sources for nutrients in the overlaying water. To determine the sediments adsorption and release characteristics and their impacts on water quality, surface sediments samples collected from Biliuhe reservoir in August 2015 were studied through simulation experiments in a laboratory. The results demonstrated that the equilibrium concentrations (EC₀) of ammonia nitrogen (NH₄⁺–N) and total phosphorus (TP) were 8.29 mg/L and 0.025 mg/L, respectively, which were both higher than the average concentrations in the overlying water. Therefore, the sediments of Biliuhe reservoir mainly acted as the pollution sources for NH₄⁺–N and TP, and the release to water showed a seasonal variation. When potential release amounts were considered, the average concentrations of NH₄⁺–N and TP in the overlaying water could reach 6.4 mg/L and 0.21 mg/L, respectively, which significantly exceeded the current contents. Further, water quality exhibited a decreased tendency after taking the release potential of nutrients into account of water quality assessment. Among the samples, 42% and 33% of them in summer and autumn exceeded the third level of the National Surface Water Quality Standards of China (GB3838-2002). The results indicated that sediments release potential had an unignored influence on water quality during various seasons.

Continuous water-level decline makes the changes of water quality in reservoirs more complicated. This paper uses trend analyses, wavelet analysis and principal component analysis-multiple linear regression to explore the changes and pollution sources affecting water quality during a period of continuous reservoir water level decline (from 65.37 m to 54.15 m), taking the Biliuhe reservoir as an example. The results showed that the change of water level of Biliuhe reservoir has a significant 13-year periodicity. The unusual water quality changes during the low water level period were as follows: total nitrogen continued to decrease. And iron was lower than its historical level. pH, total phosphorus, and ammonia nitrogen were higher than historical levels and fluctuated seasonally. Permanganate index increased as water level decreased after initial fluctuations. Dissolved oxygen was characterized by high content in winter and relatively low content in summer. The pollutant sources of non-point source pollution (PC1), sediment and groundwater pollution (PC2), atmospheric and production & domestic sewage (PC3), other sources of pollution (PC4) were identified. The main source of DO, pH, TP, TN, NH₄-N, Fe and COD_Mn were respectively PC3 (42.13%), PC1 (47.67%), PC3 (47.62%), PC1 (29.75%), PC2 (47.01%), PC1 (56.97%) and PC2 (50%). It is concluded that the continuous decline of water level has a significant impact on the changes and pollution sources affecting water quality. Detailed experiments focusing on sediment pollution release flux, and biological action will be explored next.

The water resource carrying capacity (WRCC) system comprises multiple complex and non-linear interactions related to society, economy, water resources, and the water environment. A comprehensive comprehension of its internal mechanisms is essential for the continual enhancement of the regional WRCC. This study concentrates on the temporal and spatial variability of the WRCC to investigate a method for dynamic successive assessment. Firstly, the pressure–state–response (PSR) framework is used to develop a systematic and causal indicator system. Then, the variable fuzzy pattern recognition (VFPR) model and an analytic hierarchy process—entropy (AHP-E) model are combined to successively and dynamically assess WRCC. The proposed method is applied to the dynamic successive assessment of WRCC in Hebei Province, and it is obtained that the poor water resource carrying capacity in Hebei Province is mainly due to the basic attribute of the decision on the water resource shortage, but Hebei Province actively adopts a variety of measures to save water and pressurize mining, which has made the province’s water resource carrying capacity tend to become better gradually. Simultaneously, a system dynamics model (SD) for water resource carrying capacity was established based on an analysis of the model structure. Moreover, three scenarios were designed, including existing continuation, high-efficiency water saving, and cross-regional water transfer. Subsequently, each scenario is further categorized into high- and low-speed economic development and population growth schemes. Afterward, simulations and predictions were conducted for a total of six schemes spanning from 2023 to 2030. The results indicate that if the current development model is adopted, the water resource carrying capacity will continue to maintain low levels. It was concluded that the high-speed development of the economy and population, the efficient water conservation, and the interbasin transfer scenario (scenario 2 with high speed) are the best choices for the sustainable development of water resources and social economy in Hebei.

With a shifting climate pattern and enhancement of human activities, coastal areas are exposed to threats of groundwater environmental issues. This work takes the eastern coast of Laizhou Bay as a research area to study the response of a coastal groundwater system to natural and human impacts with a combination of statistical, hydrogeochemical, and fuzzy classification methods. First, the groundwater level dynamics from 1980 to 2017 were analyzed. The average annual groundwater level dropped 13.16 m with a descent rate of 0.379 m/a. The main external environmental factors that affected the groundwater level were extracted, including natural factors (rainfall and temperature), as well as human activities (irrigated area, water-saving irrigated area, sown area of high-water-consumption crops, etc.). Back-propagation artificial neural network was used to model the response of groundwater level to the above driving factors, and sensitivity analysis was conducted to measure the extent of impact of these factors on groundwater level. The results verified that human factors including irrigated area and water-saving irrigated area were the most important influencing factors on groundwater level dynamics, followed by annual precipitation. Further, groundwater samples were collected over the study area to analyze the groundwater hydrogeochemical signatures. With the hydrochemical diagrams and ion ratios, the formation of groundwater, the sources of groundwater components, and the main hydrogeochemical processes controlling the groundwater evolution were discussed to understand the natural background of groundwater environment. The fuzzy C-means clustering method was adopted to classify the groundwater samples into four clusters based on their hydrochemical characteristics to reveal the spatial variation of groundwater quality in the research area. Each cluster was spatially continuous, and there were great differences in groundwater hydrochemical and pollution characteristics between different clusters. The natural and human factors resulted in this difference were discussed based on the natural background of the groundwater environment, and the types and intensity of human activity.

The water resources carrying capacity (WRCC) system comprises multiple complex and nonlinear interactions related to society, economy, water resources and the water environment. A full understanding of its internal mechanism is conducive to the further improvement of the regional WRCC. This article focuses on the temporal and spatial variability of WRCC to explore a method of dynamic successive assessment. Firstly, the Pressure-State-Response (PSR)framework is used to develop a systematic and causal indicator system. Then, The Variable Fuzzy Pattern Recognition (VFPR) model and an analytic hierarchy process-entropy (AHP-E) model are combined to successively and dynamically assess WRCC. The proposed method is applied to the dynamic successive assessment of WRCC in Hebei Province, and it is obtained that the poor water resources carrying capacity in Hebei Province is mainly due to the basic attribute of the decision of the water resources shortage, but Hebei Province actively adopts a variety of measures to save water and pressurize mining, which makes the province's water resources carrying capacity have a tendency to become better gradually. At the same time, the system dynamics model (SD) of water resources carrying capacity based on the analysis of the model structure was established. Moreover, three scenarios were designed, including existing continuation, high-efficiency water-saving, cross-regional water transfer and coordinated development, each scenario divided into high and low-speed economic development and population growth schemes, then total 6 schemes between 2023 and 2030 were simulated and predicted respectively. The results indicate that if the current development model is adopted, the water resource carrying capacity will continue to maintain low levels. It was concluded that the high-speed development of economy and population, the efficient water conservation and inter-basin transfer scenario (scenario 2 with high-speed) is the best choice for sustainable development of water resources and social economy in Hebei.