Wave and wind forces from tropical cyclones are one of the main design parameters of coastal and offshore infrastructure in tropical areas. The estimation of ocean waves parameters in the design of structures in tropical areas is difficult due to the complexity of wind fields associated with tropical cyclones. The use of numerical wave models, forced with parametric wind fields, is a common practice within the climatic characterization of extreme events. However, there is currently no consensus on the selection of parametric models for wave prediction due to the lack of a rigorous assessment of different models. In this study, six well-known parametric wind models were tested, compared, and applied in the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea. Therefore, the evaluation and comparison of the resulting wind and wave fields are presented, showing that a particular model may best represent a specific event, but, when dealing with a large number of events, the choice of a particular parametric wind model or a combination of them does not guarantee greater accuracy.

We present a downscaling approach for the study of wave-induced extreme water levels at a location on a barrier island in Yucatán (Mexico). Wave information from a 30-year wave hindcast is validated with in situ measurements at 8 m water depth. The maximum dissimilarity algorithm is employed for the selection of 600 representative cases, encompassing different combinations of wave characteristics and tidal level. The selected cases are propagated from 8 m water depth to the shore using the coupling of a third-generation wave model and a phase-resolving non-hydrostatic nonlinear shallow-water equation model. Extreme wave run-up, R_2%, is estimated for the simulated cases and can be further employed to reconstruct the 30-year time series using an interpolation algorithm. Downscaling results show run-up saturation during more energetic wave conditions and modulation owing to tides. The latter suggests that the R_2% can be parameterized using a hyperbolic-like formulation with dependency on both wave height and tidal level. The new parametric formulation is in agreement with the downscaling results (r² = 0.78), allowing a fast calculation of wave-induced extreme water levels at this location. Finally, an assessment of beach vulnerability to wave-induced extreme water levels is conducted at the study area by employing the two approaches (reconstruction/parameterization) and a storm impact scale. The 30-year extreme water level hindcast allows the calculation of beach vulnerability as a function of return periods. It is shown that the downscaling-derived parameterization provides reasonable results as compared with the numerical approach. This methodology can be extended to other locations and can be further improved by incorporating the storm surge contributions to the extreme water level.

Mendoza, E.T., Trejo-Rangel., M. A., Salles, P., Appendini, C.M., Lopez-Gonzalez, J. and Torres-Freyermuth, A., 2013. Storm characterization and coastal vulnerability in the Yucatan Peninsula A preliminary coastal hazard potential assessment due to storm impacts in terms of erosion and flooding for the Yucatan coast is presented. Firstly, a 30-year wave hindcast is employed in order to characterize the coastal storms by creating a 5-class storm scale in terms of wave information. Subsequently, the storm classification is converted to one based on the consequences over 26 beach profile sections located along the Yucatan coast. The storm consequences were classified according to their flood and erosion potential by means of parametric and numerical model results which are correlated with key beach characteristics such as beach width and maximum beach height. According to the obtained results, the storms were characterized in five different categories and it was found that the Yucatan coast presents higher threat to flood than to erosion during the impact of storms.

Coastal aquifers are characterized by a mixing zone with freshwater–saltwater interactions, which have a strong relationship with hydrological forcings such as astronomical and storm tides, aquifer recharge and pumping effects. These forcings govern the aquifer hydraulic head, the spatial distribution of groundwater salinity and the saline interface position. This work is an empirical evaluation through time-series analysis between aquifer head and groundwater salinity associated with the sea-level dynamics and the aquifer recharge. Groundwater pressure, temperature and salinity were measured in a confined aquifer in the northwest coast of Yucatan (México) during May 2017–May 2018, along with precipitation. Cross-correlation and linear Pearson correlation (r) analyses were performed with the data time series, separating astronomical and meteorological tides and vertical recharge effects. The results show that the astronomical and meteorological tides are directly correlated with the aquifer head response (0.71 < r < 0.99). Salinity has a direct and strong relationship with the astronomical tide (0.76 < r < 0.98), while the meteorological tide does not (r < 0.5). The vertical recharge showed a moderate correlation with the aquifer head (0.5 < r < 0.7) and a nonsignificant correlation with the groundwater salinity (r < 0.5). In this study, the sea level (r > 0.7) is a more important forcing than the vertical recharge (with 0.5 < r < 0.7). Empirical relationships through time-series analysis and the separation of individual hydrological forcings in the analysis are powerful tools to study, define and validate the conceptual model of the aquifer.

A combination of observations and analytical solutions was used to determine the modifications caused by wind forcing on the residual or nontidal circulation in an ebb‐tidal delta. Observations were obtained in the lower Arcachon Lagoon, southwestern France. The basic nontidal circulation was established with acoustic Doppler current profilers (ADCPs) that were (i) moored in the delta's two deepest channels, and (ii) towed along a cross‐lagoon transect. The bathymetry of the lower lagoon, or ebb‐tidal delta, featured two channels: North Pass (>9 m) and South Pass (>20 m). The basic nontidal circulation consisted of mostly inflow with weak surface outflow in the South Pass, and laterally sheared bidirectional flow, dominated by outflow, in the North Pass. Analytical solutions and comparison of observed dynamical terms suggested that, in addition to the conventionally accepted influence of tidal nonlinearities, density gradients contributed to the basic nontidal circulation in the lagoon. Observations also indicated that wind forcing altered the basic circulation by driving simultaneous upwind flows in both passes. This response was supported by an analytical solution to wind‐driven flows over the bathymetry of the transect sampled. The response to seaward winds was to enhance inflow in South Pass and reduce outflow in North Pass. Landward winds caused diminished inflow in South Pass and increased outflow in North Pass.

This study applies three different methods to assess the flood risk and damage from the strongest high-pressure cold front (locally known as ‘Norte’) event in terms of the residual tide from 30 years (1979–2008) of data for Progreso, Yucatan. The most important difference between the three methods is the estimation of flood vulnerability for Progreso. The first method, proposed by Mexico’s National Center for the Prevention of Disasters (CENAPRED) and used by the Mexican government is based mostly on economic asset (household goods) values and flood impacts. The second (CENAPREDv2) and third (FRI) methods are proposals for assessing risk that include 17 socioeconomic indicators. The former includes economic asset values, as is the case for CENAPRED, while the latter does not. The main results of this study show that the modeled ‘Norte’ event flooded 25% of Progreso’s city blocks, with an estimated economic flood risk of $USD 16,266 (CENAPRED) and $USD 223,779 (CENAPREDv2), and flood damage of $USD 48,848 and $USD 671,918, respectively. When calculating flood risk (FRI) and flood damage (FRI_FD) without monetary terms, the risk categories along the back-barrier behind Progreso varied spatially from ‘very low’ to ‘high’, while areas along the coastal side presented a ‘low’ and ‘very low’ risk. These categories increased for the flood damage because the exceedance probability of the flood was not considered as it was for flood risk in the three methodologies. Therefore, flood damage provides the losses caused by a given flood event without considering how probable that loss may be. In conclusion, this study proposes that the selection of the applied method depends on the main objectives and specific interests when assessing flood risk. For instance, if economic damage is the main concern, then the CENAPRED method should be used as it identifies where the larger economic impacts could occur; when a socioeconomic approach is needed then the FRI should be applied, but if both economic damage and socioeconomic aspects are needed, the CENAPREDv2 is recommended. Besides considering economic aspects, the FRI method also includes social variables that can help to map the most vulnerable population in terms of mobility, education, communication access and others. Therefore, the proposed FRI method is very relevant for disaster risk managers and other stakeholders interested in disaster risk reduction.