There is a continuing debate on relative benefits of various mitigation and suppression strategies aimed to control the spread of COVID-19. Here we report the results of agent-based modelling using a fine-grained computational simulation of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic in Australia. This model is calibrated to match key characteristics of COVID-19 transmission. An important calibration outcome is the age-dependent fraction of symptomatic cases, with this fraction for children found to be one-fifth of such fraction for adults. We apply the model to compare several intervention strategies, including restrictions on international air travel, case isolation, home quarantine, social distancing with varying levels of compliance, and school closures. School closures are not found to bring decisive benefits unless coupled with high level of social distancing compliance. We report several trade-offs, and an important transition across the levels of social distancing compliance, in the range between 70% and 80% levels, with compliance at the 90% level found to control the disease within 13–14 weeks, when coupled with effective case isolation and international travel restrictions.

We present a measure of local information transfer, derived from an existing averaged information-theoretical measure, namely, transfer entropy. Local transfer entropy is used to produce profiles of the information transfer into each spatiotemporal point in a complex system. These spatiotemporal profiles are useful not only as an analytical tool, but also allow explicit investigation of different parameter settings and forms of the transfer entropy metric itself. As an example, local transfer entropy is applied to cellular automata, where it is demonstrated to be a useful method of filtering for coherent structure. More importantly, local transfer entropy provides the first quantitative evidence for the long-held conjecture that the emergent traveling coherent structures known as particles (both gliders and domain walls, which have analogs in many physical processes) are the dominant information transfer agents in cellular automata.

Complex Systems Science aims to understand concepts like complexity, self‐organization, emergence and adaptation, among others. The inherent fuzziness in complex systems definitions is complicated by the unclear relation among these central processes: does self‐organisation emerge or does it set the preconditions for emergence? Does complexity arise by adaptation or is complexity necessary for adaptation to arise? The inevitable consequence of the current impasse is miscommunication among scientists within and across disciplines. We propose a set of concepts, together with their possible information‐theoretic interpretations, which can be used to facilitate the Complex Systems Science discourse. Our hope is that the suggested information‐theoretic baseline may promote consistent communications among practitioners, and provide new insights into the field. Published 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Complexity, 2009

On 3 April 2020, the Director-General of the WHO stated: “[COVID-19] is much more than a health crisis. We are all aware of the profound social and economic consequences of the pandemic (WHO, 2020)”. Such consequences are the result of counter-measures such as lockdowns, and world-wide reductions in production and consumption, amplified by cascading impacts through international supply chains. Using a global multi-regional macro-economic model, we capture direct and indirect spill-over effects in terms of social and economic losses, as well as environmental effects of the pandemic. Based on information as of May 2020, we show that global consumption losses amount to 3.8$tr, triggering significant job (147 million full-time equivalent) and income (2.1$tr) losses. Global atmospheric emissions are reduced by 2.5Gt of greenhouse gases, 0.6Mt of PM_2.5, and 5.1Mt of SO₂ and NO_x. While Asia, Europe and the USA have been the most directly impacted regions, and transport and tourism the immediately hit sectors, the indirect effects transmitted along international supply chains are being felt across the entire world economy. These ripple effects highlight the intrinsic link between socio-economic and environmental dimensions, and emphasise the challenge of addressing unsustainable global patterns. How humanity reacts to this crisis will define the post-pandemic world.