The accurate evaluation of shifts in vegetation phenology is essential for understanding of vegetation responses to climate change. Remote-sensing vegetation index (VI) products with multi-day scales have been widely used for phenology trend estimation. VI composites should be interpolated into a daily scale for extracting phenological metrics, which may not fully capture daily vegetation growth, and how this process affects phenology trend estimation remains unclear. In this study, we chose 120 sites over four vegetation types in the mid-high latitudes of the northern hemisphere, and then a Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) MCD43A4 daily surface reflectance data was used to generate a daily normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) dataset in addition to an 8-day and a 16-day NDVI composite datasets from 2001 to 2019. Five different time interpolation methods (piecewise logistic function, asymmetric Gaussian function, polynomial curve function, linear interpolation, and spline interpolation) and three phenology extraction methods were applied to extract data from the start of the growing season and the end of the growing season. We compared the trends estimated from daily NDVI data with those from NDVI composites among (1) different interpolation methods; (2) different vegetation types; and (3) different combinations of time interpolation methods and phenology extraction methods. We also analyzed the differences between the trends estimated from the 8-day and 16-day composite datasets. Our results indicated that none of the interpolation methods had significant effects on trend estimation over all sites, but the discrepancies caused by time interpolation could not be ignored. Among vegetation types with apparent seasonal changes such as deciduous broadleaf forest, time interpolation had significant effects on phenology trend estimation but almost had no significant effects among vegetation types with weak seasonal changes such as evergreen needleleaf forests. In addition, trends that were estimated based on the same interpolation method but different extraction methods were not consistent in showing significant (insignificant) differences, implying that the selection of extraction methods also affected trend estimation. Compared with other vegetation types, there were generally fewer discrepancies between trends estimated from the 8-day and 16-day dataset in evergreen needleleaf forest and open shrubland, which indicated that the dataset with a lower temporal resolution (16-day) can be applied. These findings could be conducive for analyzing the uncertainties of monitoring vegetation phenology changes.

Accurate evaluation of start of season (SOS) changes is essential to assess the ecosystem’s response to climate change. Smoothing method is an understudied factor that can lead to great uncertainties in SOS extraction, and the applicable situation for different smoothing methods and the impact of smoothing parameters on SOS extraction accuracy are of critical importance to be clarified. In this paper, we use MOD13Q1 normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data and SOS observations from eight agrometeorological stations on the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau (QTP) during 2001–2011 to compare the SOS extraction accuracies of six popular smoothing methods (Changing Weight (CW), Savitzky-Golay (SG), Asymmetric Gaussian (AG), Double-logistic (DL), Whittaker Smoother (WS) and Harmonic Analysis of NDVI Time-Series (HANTS)) for two types of different SOS extraction methods (dynamic threshold (DT) with 9 different thresholds and double logistic (Zhang)). Furthermore, a parameter sensitivity analysis for each smoothing method is performed to quantify the impacts of smoothing parameters on SOS extraction. Finally, the suggested smoothing methods and reference ranges for the parameters of different smoothing methods were given for grassland phenology extraction on the QTP. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) the smoothing methods and SOS extraction methods jointly determine the SOS extraction accuracy, and a bad denoising performance of smoothing method does not necessarily lead to a low SOS extraction accuracy; (2) the default parameters for most smoothing methods can result in acceptable SOS extraction accuracies, but for some smoothing methods (e.g., WS) a parameter optimization is necessary, and the optimal parameters of the smoothing method can increase the R² and reduce the RMSE of SOS extraction by up to 25% and 331%; (3) The main influencing factor of the SOS extraction using the DT method is the stability of the minimum value in the NDVI curve, and for the Zhang method the curve shape before the peak of the NDVI curve impacts the most; (4) HANTS is the most stable method no matter with (fitness = 35.05) or without parameter optimization (fitness = 33.52), which is recommended for QTP grassland SOS extraction. The findings of this study imply that remote sensing-based vegetation phenology extraction can be highly uncertain, and a careful selection and parameterization of the time-series smoothing method should be taken to achieve an accurate result.

Accurate data about the spatial distribution and planting area of maize is important for policy making, economic development, environmental protection and food security under climate change. This paper proposes a new identification method for spring maize based on spectral and phenological features derived from the moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) land surface reflectance time-series data. The method focused on the spectral differences of different land cover types in the specific phenological phases of spring maize by testing the selections and combinations of classification metrics, feature extraction methods and classifiers. Taking Liaoning province, a representative planting region of spring maize in Northeast China, as the study area, the results indicated that the combined multiple metrics, including the red reflectance, near-infrared reflectance and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), were conducive to the maize identification and were better than any single metric. With regard to the feature extraction and selection, maize identification based on different phenological features selected with prior knowledge was more efficient than that based on statistical features derived from the principal component analysis. Compared with the maximum likelihood classification method, the decision tree classification based on expert knowledge was more suitable for phenological features selected from some prior knowledge. In summary, discriminant rules were defined with those phenological features from multiple metrics, and the decision tree classification was used to identify maize in the study area. The producer’s accuracy of maize identification was 98.57%, and the user’s accuracy was 81.18%. This method can be potentially applied to an operational identification of maize at large scales based on remote sensing time-series data.

Heading and flowering are two key phenological stages in the growth process of winter wheat. It is of great significance for agricultural management and scientific research to accurately monitor and forecast the heading and flowering dates of winter wheat. However, the monitoring accuracy of existing methods based on remote sensing needs to be improved, and these methods cannot realize forecasting in advance. This study proposed an accumulated temperature method (ATM) for monitoring and forecasting the heading and flowering dates of winter wheat from the perspective of thermal requirements for crop growth. The ATM method consists of three key procedures: (1) extracting the green-up date of winter wheat as the starting point of temperature accumulation with the dynamic threshold method from remotely sensed vegetation index (VI) time-series data, (2) calculating the accumulated temperature and determining the thermal requirements from the green-up date to the heading date or the flowering date based on phenology observation samples, and (3) combining the satellite-derived green-up date, daily temperature data, and thermal requirements to monitor and forecast the heading date and flowering date of winter wheat. When applying the ATM method to winter wheat in the North China Plain during 2017–2019, the root mean square error (RMSE) for the estimated heading date was between 4.76 and 6.13 d and the RMSE for the estimated flowering date was between 5.30 and 6.41 d. By contrast, the RMSE for the heading and flowering dates estimated by the widely used maximum vegetation index method was approximately 10 d. Furthermore, the forecasting accuracy of the ATM method was also high, and the RMSE was approximately 6 d. In summary, the proposed ATM method can be used to accurately monitor and forecast the heading and flowering dates of winter wheat in large spatial scales and it performs better than the existing maximum vegetation index method.